The Plan of Attack:
| Race | Bet | SUMMARY |
|---|---|---|
| R3 No.9 | Sulek | Strong jump-outs, maps on speed, Egan in form. |
| R5 No.2 | Abovethefrostline | Leads. Takes catching. |
| R5 No.5 | Ellicazam | Drawn soft, sharp trials for new stable, suited by hot speed. |
| R6 No.3 | Fridge Monster | Perfect map to lead, superior ratings, trialled well. |
| R6 No.5 | Headstock (smaller) | Improving with jump-outs, can press forward and give sight. |
Turf Talk
- Second meeting back at Mornington for the spring.
- Interesting that the last meeting was in the 8m position, now they come back to the true.
- Thinking on speed/inside will be the A-ground.
- Mornington is a unique, tight-turning track with an uphill straight. It’s a ‘horses for courses’ track – advantage anything with good Mornington form. It can also be a track where locals have an edge due to its uniqueness.
Stats That Matter
- Julien Welsh has a 20% strike rate when taking horses to Mornington at a PoT of 59.9%.
- Jockey Billy Egan is in reasonable form having posted 19 winners from his past 100 rides at a PoT of 21.2%.
Race 3 No.9 Sulek
Few map queries on some of those at the top of the market.
(11) Sassy For Sure has been just ‘fairly’ away in both starts to date, she wouldn’t want to be slow off this one otherwise she will end up buried. Her debut run would win this, her first up run at Sandown was just OK.
(1) Casual Ghai has been ridden conservatively in jump-outs this time in, suspect they may drift back off gate one? He has trialled nicely, has been gelded and has a winning chance, for sure.
(9) Sulek has had several jump-outs ahead of his debut, and he’s gone very nicely each time he’s gone to the barriers. He jumps the gates nicely, and should put himself right on speed. Jockey Billy Egan has hit a bit of form lately, which is also a plus. Think he will make his presence felt on debut.
(2) Fear The Impact has trialled nicely and can run well on debut.
Betting suggestion: Backing (9) Sulek.
Race 5 No.2 Abovethefrostline & No.5 Ellicazam
Big fan of (7) Bazaball Rewarded who trialled super this time in and backed that up with a great win at this track and trip fresh. This is tougher, and she maps for a sticky run in transit. I can’t get her as short as the $1.75, despite thinking she’s probably the best horse in the race.
She may need the run off a 53-week spell, but I love how (5) Ellicazam has trialled up for her new trainer, Julien Welsh. Julien is a master with problematic horses, so I wonder if this mare has had an issue or two. Her jump-outs at Cranbourne have been sharp and the form through her Northam debut win has worked out quite well. The key here is she’s drawn to do no work, camp behind a hot speed, and get her chance over the concluding stages. $21 seems a huge price.
(2) Abovethefrostline is a speedy mare who was terrific at The Valley when last at the sports. She has been given a decent break and jump-out patterns suggest she has had a most interrupted preparation, but at her best she is right in a race like this. Her last jump-out was typically sharp and she has the toe to cross from a wide draw.
Betting suggestion: Backing (5) Ellicazam at $10 +, (2) Abovethefrostline at ~$4.40. Quinella 2,5,7.
Race 6 No.3 Fridge Monster, smaller No.5 Headstock
This is a perfect setup for (3) Fridge Monster. Drawn gate one, he should kick up and lead. He has had a freshen-up and trialled very well here at Mornington between runs. Sheridan Clarke has ridden him twice for a win and a second, so she knows the horse well. The kicker is his ratings are superior to his rivals, so he only needs to run somewhere near his best to be winning this, black figures appeal.
Think (5) Headstock can run well for Carly Thomas. This gelding has had three jump-outs since coming south from NSW and has gone well in his latest two. He can press forward from the wide draw and race on speed; from there he can be in it a long way.
Betting suggestion: Backing (3) Fridge Monster, smaller (5) Headstock.
