Track

• Rail True Entire – with the dry track it should favour those on speed, with lanes 1-5 key in transit.
• Horses settling further back than midfield need a solid tempo in front to be running on.

Stats

• Over the past 90 days Dylan Gibbons is striking at 20.7% with a positive POT of +25.1%.
• Richard & Will Freedman stable has been profitable to follow up to $10 SP, with strong results second and third up.

Race 3

Intriguing 1400m maiden with no obvious speed. (7) Orange Tsunami should be prominent second-up after a luckless debut at Wyong. That race has produced two subsequent winners, so the form reads well. Tuscany went 1100m straight to 1400m last start and just peaked on the run — he’ll lead and be the one to run down. (4) Decroum is the best long-term prospect but gets a plain set-up here with no tempo and a wide gate. (12) Tropic is next best.

7 Orange Tsunami
5 Tuscany
4 Decroum
12 Tropic

Race 4

The 900m trip is a specialist set-up — often the horse who handles it best wins, not necessarily the best horse in the race. (5) Wal’s Me Mate is the out-and-out 900m galloper, and the stable has worked him out this prep with back-to-back dominant wins. Gate 8 is the only knock, but expect Lloyd to pull the right rein early. (2) Rantan brings the best last-start figure but back to 900m from a wide draw screams trouble. (1) No Statment ran second to him last start and his on-speed style is well suited to 900m. (10) Written Scandle has trialled well but has never raced below 1100m — happy to risk at the short quote.

5 Wal’s Me Mate
2 Rantan
1 No Statment
10 Written Scandle

Race 5 – G3 Tibbie Stakes

1400m for the fillies and mares. Keen to side with the in-form (10) It’s A Knockout. She brings dominant figures and tactical speed. (5) Oh Diamond Lil looks the danger, though the slight concern is whether she runs out 1400m strongly. (15) Imposant is the best roughie — solid first-up, trialled well since, and back on her home deck. Outside of that, (18) Verona Rose and (6) Movin Out have claims at odds.

10 It’s A Knockout
5 Oh Diamond Lil
15 Imposant
18 Verona Rose
6 Movin Out

Race 6 – G3 Newcastle Cup

Very keen on (7) Travolta. If not for a masterful James McDonald ride aboard Changingoftheguard last start, Travolta would have kept his winning streak alive. He brings dominant figures and maps ideally. Respect the untapped (9) Soul Of Spain — Lloyd jumps off Travolta to ride him, but the gate 1 map looks tricky. Cases can also be made for the Australian Bloodstock pair (4) Royal Supremacy and (5) Don Diego De Vega, both in form and drawn well but inconsistent. Cracking race.

7 Travolta
9 Soul Of Spain
4 Royal Supremacy
5 Don Diego De Vega

Race 7 – G3 Cameron Handicap

A wide-open edition of the Cameron. Looks to be genuine speed, which sets it up for (9) Swiftfalcon. He was solid late fresh in the Tramway and is better placed down in grade. The query is the gate — he’ll need luck. (19) Fully Lit gets in light, should land on the bunny and give a sight. Local hope (1) Tavi Time maps ideally but 59kg fresh is a tough ask. The big market watch is (16) Magnatear — likely leads and brings a unique form line. Watch closely.

9 Swiftfalcon
19 Fully Lit
1 Tavi Time
16 Magnatear