Turf Talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovey runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
- The 1000, 1100 and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.
- They[‘ve wanted to get away from the fence in recent meetings, but track has played well.
- Southerly winds forecast but not expected to be strong.
- With dry weather forecast, should be a Good 4, potentially Good 3 for racing.
Key stats:
- Pat Carey and Harris Walker are going nicely: 18 winners from their last 100 runners at a PoT of 57.4%.
- Grahame Begg has been going below the lofty standards he has set over recent seasons, striking at 12% from his last 100 runners. He does go well at Pakenham and he was striking at 23% across 2025.
- Damian Lane loves coming to Pakenham. He has had 99 winners from 426 rides here at a strike rate of 23.2.%.
- Daniel Stackhouse is ever-consistent, going at 20% from his last 100 rides at a PoT of 34.2%.
Race 4
This looks (4) General Blu’s race to lose. He was super on debut at Geelong, ripping home in the best last 600/200m splits of the meeting in a high-rating race. He should’ve won there and the step to 1200m on Thursday night is ideal. The little query is gate two, as he’s not the best beginner, but with even luck in running I think he will be winning.
The money has come early for (6) Mahershala. He has trialled nicely, but is still very green, can lay in and comes on and off the bit. Talent is there, just wonder if he might get a bit lost up the wide-open home straight at Pakenham. Can win, but for mine, under the odds at $3.60.
(8) Sparkling Luck trialled nicely and comes through reasonable form references last campaign. Will be working home late.
Suggested bet: Think General Blu is more like a $2.40 chance, so happy to take the $2.70 on offer. Just needs a good ride from Thomas Stockdale from an awkward draw.
Race 5
Another heat of the Future Stars Series.
Not a huge amount of speed. Suspect (9) Spin Class will press forward on debut with Jamie Melham on board. (12) Lotta City handy off gate one, (2) I Said So tucks in behind from a low draw.
If (4) Ten Warriors had only had a couple of starts, I reckon he’d be odds on here. He’s $2.50 plus because he’s had eleven starts and punters are wearing thin of him. The reality is, the majority of his recent ratings would win this and he was likely beaten by a very smart horse here at Pakenham last time out. He was also six-weeks between runs last start, so will strip fitter here. Jamie Mott can work his way across from gate nine and get a nice spot handy to the speed and with even luck in running he will prove awfully hard to beat.
That said, the horse I have going for the best result in the race is (9) Spin Class. She hadn’t shown much in her jump-outs until this campaign. She sat on speed in the same heat Bermondsey went around in here at Pakenham and she went super, cruising to the line under a big hold to run second. Gets Jamie Melham in the saddle which is a big positive for small trainer Robert Palm, who has just four horses in work (the second time Palm has secured the services of J Melham). Think this mare can run a big race on debut.
Suggested bet: Backing Ten Warriors (WIN)/Spin Class (each way) – got the latter going for the bigger result.
