Not an overly enticing meeting. The northerly winds forecast should assist those on speed out of the 1000m chute while it will blow into their faces down the back straight in circle races (1300m +).
Race one looks a race in two between Leaving Las Vegas and Rock Them Jools, but the market has identified both in early markets and there’s no meat on the bone.
Race 3 – Takeko (save Bella Cinque)
Grahame Begg has had an unbelievable season striking at 27.90% for the season and he has had a number of horses trial nicely in recent weeks, Takeko being one of those. Ultimately I think she’s better over further than 1000m but from the sprint chute she gets plenty of time to balance up early and with the wind at their backs on this course sitting deep – which she may do – won’t be a negative. She’s the best horse in this and think she deserves favouritism. Is there’s a danger, it may be Bella Cinque who has jumped-out very nicely between runs and she’s back to 1000m, which is ideal for her.
Race 6 – Backing Dobkins ($19) and Miss Castlevecchio ($6)
Like this race. Dobkins didn’t have the clearest passage in what has proven a reasonable form race at Caulfield last start. Her best work was through the line so the step to 1400m (from 1200m) looks ideal.. The wide draw doesn’t cause concern as she will get back anyway and with the rail out and a headwind down the back, I think they’ll be able to make ground in circle races.
Miss Castlevecchio gets a good 3kg claim here for Luke Cartwright. This is a filly I’ve always had a bit of time for and I liked the last 100m of her Bendigo maiden win fresh. She draws for a lovely run in the race and I can see her starting favourite.
Summary
- Race 3 – Takeko (save Bella Cinque)
- Race 6 – Backing Dobkins and Miss Castlevecchio
