The Plan of Attack:
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bairnsdale R1 | 6 | (6) Capital Grace | Gets to 1600m, maps handy in a weak maiden |
| Bairnsdale R2 | 9 & 12 | (9) Cold Aza Beer / (12) Itsagiven | Raw but talented gelding + debut filly with a sharp turn of foot |
| Bairnsdale R5 | 8 (save 12) | (8) Farisha (save (12) Yongtai) | Draws the pole, little speed on; danger looks Yongtai resuming. |
| Bendigo R7 | 8 | (8) Mawhera | Airborne but luckless this prep. Draws a gate to stay out of trouble. |
Turf Talk:
- Bairnsdale is a tight-turning track with a shorter home straight. It is rarely a disadvantage to be on speed. The 1200m chute provides the best start, with a long run into the home bend. The 1600m start also has a reasonable run before the first turn.
- Wary of Bendigo with heavy rain forecast later this morning. With the rail out 9m, they should be able to get away from the fence as the meeting unfolds.
The Stats that Matter:
- Vin Hall is doing a great job with his small team, striking at 21.2% from his last 100 runners at a massive PoT of 231.8%. The last four runners he has saddled up have all won. He has Yongtai in race five.
Race Previews:
Bairnsdale R1 – (6) Capital Grace
Both (6) Capital Grace and (9) Lots of Time come through the same Bendigo maiden, but I thought Grace’s run was better despite finishing behind. Up to 1600m, maps handy, and this is a thin race. Should be hard to beat.
Betting Strategy: Backing (6) Capital Grace
Bairnsdale R2 – (9) Cold Aza Beer & (12) Itsagiven
(9) Cold Aza Beer is raw but talented. On debut he was buried on the fence at Sale and still rattled home for the 5th best last 200m of the day. Bairnsdale’s turns aren’t perfect for him, but extra trip and a good draw help.
(12) Itsagiven has shown a slick turn of foot in jump-outs. She’s not great from the gates, but if she’s within a couple at the 200m, she can blouse them late. At $9, I’m having something on.
Betting Strategy: Backing (9) Cold Aza Beer & (12) Itsagiven
Bairnsdale R5 – (8) Farisha (save (12) Yongtai)
(8) Farisha comes back to 1200m, which looks ideal. Draws the inside, little speed in the race, and she can boss them around up front. The tongue tie goes on, maybe they’ve ironed out an issue.
Wary of (12) Yongtai having her first start for trainer Vin Hall. She has trialled up OK for this return and her fresh runs have been her best.
The other hope looks (3) Danerich Dan – flying this prep, but keeps getting back and giving away a start.
Betting Strategy: Keen (8) Farisha at $4.20, saving (12) Yongtai. Quinella 3,8,12.
Bendigo R7 – (8) Mawhera
This horse is humming, just needs luck. Stormed home two back at Sandown, then got boxed in at Wangaratta. From the wide draw he’ll stay clear of traffic, and Coffey hopping on is a plus. Looks over the odds at around $8+.
Betting Strategy: Backing (8) Mawhera
Bendigo R8 – (3) Balastier vs (4) Bossy Star
This one’s a cracker to finish. (3) Balastier is the hype horse – trialled like a beast and smacked them at Seymour. Only gripes: he’s short enough at $2.70 and if the pattern’s off-rails by this stage being on speed could be poison.
On the flip side, (4) Bossy Star is airborne since joining Laurie. Belted a field at Geelong that’s since produced winners everywhere, handles the wet, and today’s wide draw is a gift – he’ll flop out last and come charging down the middle. If they’re making ground late in the day, the $8 is juicy.
