Betsy’s Best Casterton
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Villa Capitalista | Trialled super. Meech up. Think only a bad ride beats him. |
| 1 | 12 | Noubentekh | Jumped-out nicely this time in. Maps well. Hope at huge odds – $26. |
| 5 | 6 | Prophet’s Choice | Long spell but jumped-out well. Strikes a very weak race. |
Betsy’s Best Seymour
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 9 | Points For Effort | Trialled well since knocking up on debut. Leader in a weak race. |
| 5 | 5 | Crossover Kid | Got a mile back but was super through the line last start. Best bet. |
| 7 | 12 | Lack Of Restraint | Strikes a strong race but over the odds at double figures. Like the draw. |
Turf Talk
Casterton is a track that invariably favours horses on speed. If you like one that maps to settle forward, bet with confidence.
Seymour has been racing well of late. Expect them to ease away from the fence on a heavy deck.
Stats That Matter
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Symon Wilde is going at 20% from his last 100 runners and has a 23% strike rate (21% PoT) at Casterton.
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Warrnambool trainer Peter Chow is the punter’s pal at Casterton, going at a PoT of 38%. He has several strong chances today.
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Not surprisingly, Linda Meech (23.1% S/R @ a 21.2% PoT) and Dean Yendall (24% S/R) boast good records at Casterton.
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The master Grahame Begg leads all trainers at Seymour. He is going at 27% from his last 100 runners and has a strong 32% PoT at Seymour.
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Ethan Brown is the in-form hoop heading to Seymour, having ridden 23 winners from his last 100 rides.
The Detail
Casterton Race 1 No.3 Villa Capitalista & No.12 Noubenkah
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(3) Villa Capitalista has jumped-out nicely on a number of occasions. Tom Dabernig and Linda Meech have a good record when they team up and with even luck from a wide draw, this bloke should be making a winning start to his career. The key here is there’s a stack of speed which should help break up the field and afford Meech a good run in the race.
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The Walters’-trained (12) Noubenkah has jumped-out nicely leading into this campaign. She debuted in a strong race at the ‘Bool where she didn’t fire a shot, but this is a far more suitable race and she maps nicely. The $26 on offer really appeals.
Suggested bet – Backing (3) Villa Capitalista, smaller on (12) Noubenkah.
Casterton Race 5 No.6 Prophet’s Choice
(6) Prophet’s Choice has had a long spell leading into this campaign but recent jump-outs were super. She strikes a very moderate affair fresh and, provided Jarrod Fry can get her clean air off the inside alley, she should be able to account for this field.
Suggested bet – Backing (6) Prophet’s Choice.
Seymour Race 2 No.9 Points For Effort
(9) Points For Effort has been back to the jump-outs since a moderate debut at Geelong and he went super in that work at Bendigo. He should lead them up here and give plenty of cheek. The race has fallen away after scratchings and with (4) Helovawin a short-priced favourite, I am keen to find something to beat him.
Suggested bet – Backing (9) Points For Effort.
Seymour Race 5 No.5 Crossover Kid
(5) Crossover Kid is rising rapidly in trip this campaign but the 2000m now third-up seems ideal. He was super to, and through, the line here at a mile last start. The heavy going is no issue at all and I like the wide draw, as he will drift back and swing wide. He looks clearly the horse to beat.
Suggested bet – Betting up on (5) Crossover Kid.
Seymour Race 7 No.12 Lack Of Restraint
Good race and a fair step in class for (12) Lack Of Restraint, who broke her maiden at Bendigo last start. She had every favour in the run on a leaders/inside-biased day there, but I’ve got a bit of time for this mare. She still does a bit wrong, but she has a lethal turn of foot and drawing off the fence should suit. At 15/1, I can have something each way.
Suggested bet – (12) Lack Of Restraint each-way
