Turf Talk:
- Good 4, rail True, fine day, so every chance of an upgrade
- Always default to on-speed horses at Swan Hill when the track is on the firmer side.
- Lovely spacious track with a long straight. The 975m start comes off the bottom of the home bend.
Race 1 No.8 Where’s My Sock E/W
(8) Where’s My Sock isn’t great in the stalls, in fact he stayed in them last start at Hamilton. However, he has been back to the jump-outs between runs and has jumped much better. I am confident there’s at least some degree of ability there when he can get his barrier manners right and jump-outs between runs have been excellent.
No moral, but at $34 in a limited race he’s worth a throw at the stumps.
Suggested bet: Something small E/W Where’s My Sock at $34.
Race 2 No.11 Sunflower Liv
Unfortunately we have lost three place dividends here with several scratchings.
Look, Queen Christine and Istriano are clearly the horses to beat, but the market has found them.
Sunflower Liv started her career with John McArdle and has found her way to Jordy Coffey. She hasn’t shown a lot on the racetrack in four starts but I did love a recent trial at Murtoa where she hit the line very well to win under her own steam; the time being quite strong for that late stage of the morning. She’s drawn to get a nice run here and at a massive price might be able to run a race for the new stable.
Suggested bet: Something small Sunflower Liv at 80/1+
Race 3
Think (3) Ponte Arcobaleno deserves to be favourite here. It can be hard to come at a horse that has had four seconds in a row but there have been genuine excuses/or he has bumped into a smart one on each occasion. He draws ideally today which should allow Tom Madden to give him every hope and this is as weak a race as he has struck.
There are two at bigger odds I also want on side: (13) My Alpha Sonic and (15) Acantilado.
My Alpha Sonic trialled quite well prior to his debut at Gunbower where he was right in the market ($5.50 into $4). He was just a touch slow there and ended up back and buried, which then saw him badly held up in the straight. Think he would’ve gone close with even luck. Needs to jump cleanly today but if he can then the $41 on offer will look a huge price.
There has always been market expectation around Acantilado but he struck a heavy track which he didn’t handle and then covered ground/had excuses on the synthetic. Trials have always been good and this is his first go on a dry, turf track and a recent jump-outs was solid.
Suggested bet: Major play on Ponte Arcobaleno at $3.20, smaller bets on My Alpha Sonic ($41) and Acantilado ($13).
Trifecta: 3,13,15/3,12,13/15/2,3,11,12,13,15
Race 7
Very good speed here. That should suit (2) Bourbon Road who was terrific first up at Mildura, ripping home the best last 600/400m splits of the meeting. That was his first run for 40 weeks and he had only one jump-out leading in, so he should strip fitter. There’s a few apprentices on the on-speed horses here, some drawn wide, so think they could go mad here and this bloke will be strong late.
(6) Simply Luscious didn’t handle a wet track first-upA at Moe. Her best ratings are well and truly good enough to win this and they strike a firm deck today in a race she can lead them up. Her jump-outs prior to that first up run were good, so think she’s come back in reasonable order, just needs a dry deck.
(12) Snapshot trialled well prior to her debut at Albury where she ran reasonable time winning her maiden. The third horse out of that race his since won well and she has more upside than her rivals. Drawn to get a good run with a senior up.
Suggested bet: Backing Bourbon Road, smaller Simply Luscious.
