Betsy’s Best: Swan Hill

Turf Talk:

• Track was a Good 3 on Saturday morning, they’ve since added 10mm, and it has come up a Good 4 on race morning.
• Expect it to get back to a Good 3 as the day progresses.
• Swan Hill has a lovely, long 475m home straight, but despite that it can be very tough to make ground when the track is on the drier side.
• 975m chute off the top bend only has one bend to navigate.
• 1300m chute down the bottom of the back straight provides a lovely run into the first bend.

Key stats:

• Linda Meech is going at 22% from her last 100 rides.
• Dean Yendall rides Swan Hill well, having ridden 90 winners from 433 rides at 20.8%.
• Cup-winning trainers Tony and Calvin McEvoy are striking at 21% from their last 100 runners and go at 23.1% when they bring horses to Swan Hill.

Race 2

This is a very weak Maiden.

Like Brittany Button jumping on Prandium Tempus. She was on board when this bloke sprung the barriers in a Wangaratta trial on September 9. Since then, he has been slow away, but also hampered by wide barriers. Drawing gate four today is ideal, hopefully he jumps cleanly and he could lead this field.

Dance Lady isn’t the best beginner but liked how she worked to the line in a recent Flemington jump-out. Simon Zahra seems to have his horses going quite well at the moment and from a good draw she should get her chance, provided she jumps cleanly. Think she’s over the odds in a moderate Maiden.

Both Sirleaf and Jelly Bear have chances through the same Echuca maiden, but neither have a very good map. Pacific Paradise has jumped-out well enough but does look like a horse that will get back and work home, with a view to something further.

Suggested bet: Two-bet play – Prandium Tempus and Dance Lady.

Race 5

Like Yendall going back on She Flys. She was just held up as she needed to be building momentum down the hill at Kilmore last start. She was good at Bendigo when spacing third behind Switch Hit two back at Bendigo. This is the weakest race she could possibly find and from a good draw she will get a lovely run in transit. Recent ratings have her winning this.

Chosen Venture loves it here at home (10: 4-2-1). He is suited back down in grade and Brad Rawiller has had a couple of sits on him now, so knows him well. Draws to sit inside of She Flys in the run and should get his chance – just feel he’s well enough found at $2.10.

Suggested bet: Think She Flys should be favourite – backing her.

Race 6

Wary of Frederick here. Think he can run a big race. Had excuses last time out at Yarra Valley when not getting the best run in transit but it was also noted he had a loose plate post-race – which can’t have helped. Run two back at Moe was solid when covering some ground. Going back to last campaign he was luckless at Moe first up over 1200m – he probably should’ve gone close to winning that. The preparation prior he was running well up on speed against much better opposition. He draws inside today and can settle just behind the speed in a race lacking tempo – wouldn’t be surprised if he starts a lot shorter than the $13 on offer.

Boulder Jack looks the horse to beat. Back to 1200m is some query but he maps to lead here with an aggressive ride from Yendall early and getting back on top of the ground is ideal for him.

Suggested bet: Main bet on Frederick, also backing Boulder Jack.