Matt Welsh has identified a couple of longer priced runners he thinks can run well at Cranbourne on Saturday.
Cranbourne Race 3 No.5 Riproar ($19 fixed)
Sheesh, Riproar looks a huge price. He struck inferior ground and was held up at key stages at Pakenham last start. Despite that, he wasn’t beaten far over a most unsuitable 1000m trip.
That first-up run came off a layoff of more than a year and was his first outing for Reece Goodwin, so it’s clear he’s had his share of setbacks.
That said, his best form and ratings are well and truly up to a race like this and the first-up effort suggested he’s back in good order. The step to 1200m is ideal and he’s drawn to get a perfect run on the back of the speed.
He started his career with Andrew Forsman before transferring to Gavin Bedggood’s Cranbourne stable, where he had one run for a win at Sandown.
That’s a Sandown double for @jamieleekah07 aboard Riproar 🔥@GavinBedggood pic.twitter.com/uFTGtPBNyz
— Racing.com (@Racing) August 21, 2024
Prior to that resumption at Pakenham, he also hadn’t been seen at the jump-outs for two months leading into that run, so he should strip noticeably fitter this time around.
No moral, but can’t see this bloke jumping anywhere near the $19 on offer with bet365.
Cranbourne Race 6 backing No.4 Diamond Gust ($15) and No.7 The Volta ($14)
I might be missing something, but I can’t get anywhere near Millenium Blade at the price. He’s got ability, sure, but his first-up win at Kyneton came in a fairly moderate Maiden after landing in the right lane. This is a much deeper race. Drawn well and 1400m suits, but around $3.10 looks absolute poison.
I’m also keen to be against Buccleuch first-up. Quality horse and the trials are good, but from a wide draw around a tight track he’s almost certain to give them a start. Happy to take him on at $5.
The Volta is flying and looks the one the market has missed. She ran the second-best last 600m and 400m of the meeting first up at Mornington, and that was over an unsuitable 1000m. Her 1200m win here last start was strong, and everything about her says 1400m is exactly what she wants. She showed last prep she can roll forward and control a race, and at $14 she’s massively over the odds.
The other I want in the book is Diamond Gust. He was held up and forced to wait fresh at Mornington but still hit the line well in a solid race. Blinkers go on, which he wore in a prior trial where he jumped sharply, and that looks the key change.
bet365 have Diamond Gust at $15 and The Volta at $14 – most appealing.
Note: Prices correct as at 9.45am 24/12/25.
