Betsy’s Form team give their thoughts on the 2025 Melbourne Cup. The six horses that can run Top 3 is designed for use with exotics and same-race multi bets.
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DEAN WATLING
Taking two different approaches to the cup this year. Firstly, siding with some European form in PRESAGE NOCTURNE who has strong form lines recently winning at Group 3 level in France and a recent Group 1 placing over the 3200m. No doubts he will see out the trip and he was strong through the line in The Caulfield Cup when 4th which looked a perfect lead up run. A wet track will be no disadvantage either.
The other way to look at the race is to follow the strong WFA form lines through The Cox Plate where BUCKAROO pushed VIA SISTINA right to the line. The Cox Plate lead up has been a good form reference for a strong Cup run in recent years so he ticks that box and a wet track will also be a positive for his chances.
Caulfield Cup winner HALF YOURS comes next, he is hard to ignore off the win at Caulfield and he looks ready for the 3200m trip off that now, he is in well at the weights and maps well so expect he gets every chance with the right run.
RIVER OF STARS was 2nd in The Caulfield Cup and will appreciate a wet track so she can find her best in this race, she was 2nd in The Sydney Cup last year and has good European form lines at staying distance so should set up well.
Race Selections
(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE
(2) BUCKAROO
(14) HALF YOURS
(21) RIVER OF STARS
BOXED TRIFECTA / FIRST 4: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 14, 20, 21
THREE HORSES THAT CAN WIN
PRESAGE NOCTURNE, BUCKAROO, HALF YOURS
All are well in the market, but get probably the best race maps of a lot of the field so expect they get comfortable runs and a wet track won’t hurt any of their chances.
SIX HORSES THAT CAN RUN TOP 3
PRESAGE NOCTURNE, BUCKAROO, HALF YOURS, RIVER OF STARS, AL RIFFA, GOODIE TWO SHOES
AL RIFFA looks the class runner of the field clearly, but the big weight and wide barrier make it tough for him but he should still be around the mark, have GOODIE TWO SHOES as one of the best roughies in the race, she is a winning machine but a wet track might not suit so keeping an eye on conditions. Leaving MEYDAAN out of the top 3 chances, not huge on the set up he looks to get.
MITCH LEWIS
Race Selections
(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE
(2) BUCKAROO
(14) HALF YOURS
(21) RIVER OF STARS
BOXED TRIFECTA / FIRST 4: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 14, 20, 21
Taking two different approaches to the cup this year. Firstly, siding with some European form in PRESAGE NOCTURNE who has strong form lines recently winning at Group 3 level in France and a recent Group 1 placing over the 3200m. No doubts he will see out the trip and he was strong through the line in The Caulfield Cup when 4th which looked a perfect lead up run. A wet track will be no disadvantage either.
The other way to look at the race is to follow the strong WFA form lines through The Cox Plate where BUCKAROO pushed VIA SISTINA right to the line. The Cox Plate lead up has been a good form reference for a strong Cup run in recent years so he ticks that box and a wet track will also be a positive for his chances.
Caulfield Cup winner HALF YOURS comes next, he is hard to ignore off the win at Caulfield and he looks ready for the 3200m trip off that now, he is in well at the weights and maps well so expect he gets every chance with the right run.
RIVER OF STARS was 2nd in The Caulfield Cup and will appreciate a wet track so she can find her best in this race, she was 2nd in The Sydney Cup last year and has good European form lines at staying distance so should set up well.
Race Selections
(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE
(2) BUCKAROO
(14) HALF YOURS
(21) RIVER OF STARS
BOXED TRIFECTA / FIRST 4: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 14, 20, 21
THREE HORSES THAT CAN WIN
PRESAGE NOCTURNE, BUCKAROO, HALF YOURS
All are well in the market, but get probably the best race maps of a lot of the field so expect they get comfortable runs and a wet track won’t hurt any of their chances.
SIX HORSES THAT CAN RUN TOP 3
PRESAGE NOCTURNE, BUCKAROO, HALF YOURS, RIVER OF STARS, AL RIFFA, GOODIE TWO SHOES
AL RIFFA looks the class runner of the field clearly, but the big weight and wide barrier make it tough for him but he should still be around the mark, have GOODIE TWO SHOES as one of the best roughies in the race, she is a winning machine but a wet track might not suit so keeping an eye on conditions. Leaving MEYDAAN out of the top 3 chances, not huge on the set up he looks to get.
TRAV NOONAN
Top 4
(10) FLATTEN THE CURVE
(1) AL RIFFA
(14) HALF YOURS
(9) ABSURDE
Flatten The Curve appeals to me on his overseas figures with Racing Post and feel he’s hitting the race in great form. He’ll run the distance and has a turn of foot and is also capable in the conditions.
Al Riffa is the class horse, he will be coming late and has a great lead up prep to perform.
Half Yours is flying, Caulfield Cup form is historically great and another who excels on wet ground.
Absurde has ran well before and is going as well leading in this year. Think he can run a bottler for the Irish crew.
Race Selections
(10) FLATTEN THE CURVE
(1) AL RIFFA
(14) HALF YOURS
(9) ABSURDE
Six horses that can run top 3:
(10) FLATTEN THE CURVE
(1) AL RIFFA
(14) HALF YOURS
(9) ABSURDE
(22) TORRANZINO
(24) VALIANT KING
GIBBO
No great speed but feel it will still be a fair race for most. I don’t want to be buried back and on the fence, would love to be off the fence as I expect the winner to come very wide in the straight.
Although many are saying the German form is no good these days, I’ve been with (10) FLATTEN THE CURVE for the last month and still keen on him. I just believe my eyes and in all his recent replays he travels well, accelerates off any tempo and savages the line. Horse he smashed last start come out and ran well in a G1. Won 6 of last 7 and $34 seems mad.
Never seen blinkers work better than they have on (24) VALIANT KING. His win in the Bart Cummings 2500m on this track was breath-taking. Just as good in the Caulfield Cup. Wet my only query but he hasn’t had blinkers on in the wet yet. Maybe he’s a new horse. I had a query if they could keep (14) HALF YOURS up as he’s been in work since March. From all reports has come through the CC win well and this rain is perfect for him, he is a swimmer.
Overseas classy types are (1) AL RIFFA and (6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE. Al Riffa has been dominant his last couple, looks the best horse in the race but 59kg is my only concern. Presage Nocturne is a 3000m+ horse who handles all conditions. Couldn’t expect any more out of the run at Caulfield and best L200m of the race says let’s get to 3200m.
Race Selections
(10) FLATTEN THE CURVE
(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE
(14) HALF YOURS
(24) VALIANT KING
(1) AL RIFFA
TRIFECTA: 6, 10, 14, 24 – 1, 6, 10, 14, 24 – 1, 2, 6, 8, 10, 14, 24
Horses that can win:
(10) FLATTEN THE CURVE
(6) PRESAGE NOCTURNE
(14) HALF YOURS
(24) VALIANT KING
Horses that can place:
(1) AL RIFFA
(2) BUCKAROO
(8) MEYDAAN
(17) FURTHUR
(20) GOODIE TWO SHOES
(22) ROYAL SUPREMACY
MATT WELSH
(6) Presage Nocturne was excellent in the Caulfield Cup and his French form on rain-affected ground reads well. The 2.5kg weight drop on Half Yours and the rise to 3200m both look positives, and he maps to get the perfect trail behind the favourite. Hard to beat.
(21) River Of Stars also ran a huge race in the Caulfield Cup after sitting close to a strong tempo. She handles soft ground and should settle in the first five before running the trip right out.
(14) Half Yours gets ideal conditions again on a soft track. He was given a great ride in the Caulfield Cup and proved too strong. Carries a penalty now but draws to get another perfect run.
(24) Valiant King has lifted since the blinkers went on. Strong Bart Cummings win and an eye-catcher in the Caulfield Cup. Genuine stayer who’ll be finishing hard.
Best roughie is (23) Torranzino, who was brave behind Valiant King in the Bart Cummings before winning the Geelong Cup. Drawn wide but can roll forward, and the wet won’t worry him.
Race Selections Selections:
(6) Presage Nocturne
(21) River Of Stars
(23) Torranzino
(24) Valiant King
TRIFECTA: 6,14,13,21,23 – 1,6,14,13,21,23 – 1,2,6,8,10,14,21,23,24
Six horses that can run top 3:
(6) Presage Nocturne
(21) River Of Stars
(23) Torranzino
(24) Valiant King
(14) Half Yours
(1) Al Riffa
