Betsy’s Set: Balaklava

Track

• Rail position pushes out from the previous true position in the previous two meetings and will be +3m 1000m-W/Post, True Remainder.
• Potentially the track will be rated as a Soft 5 come race morning due to showers in the lead up days through the start of this week and even on race day.
• The track has played reasonably fairly in recent meetings; the slight advantage will be with runners who settle forwards of midfield in run and expecting the track to play off rails in the straight if wet.

Stats

• Jacob Opperman continues to ride in good form. He has had 18 wins in his last 100 rides with a profit on turnover of +14.2% for punters and will saddle up for 3 rides here today.

Race 1

Moderate maiden kicking off today’s program. Many of these are on the quick back up and meeting again after contesting a similar race early in last week’s meeting that was won by Grinzinger Joy. All the money last week came for (6) Flaming Eyes who ran into 2nd by less than 0.5L, she gets a very similar set up here today so should get every chance again. (5) Empress Of Soul was close to the winner also in the same race, finishing 0.6L from the winner, another with a very similar set up today. (2) Cracken Good Time looks best suited when leading and may get a soft run of it out in front. (1) Captain Love went forwards last time and nearly won the race as well, if it is him that gets the softer run out in front, he may be the one to catch.

Selections:
(6) Flaming Eyes
(5) Empress Of Soul
(2) Cracken Good Time
(1) Captain Love

Suggested Bet – No bet, these runners all hit the line together last time and are hard to split when it may be whoever handles the quick back up best.

Race 2

(11) Good Expectations was met with huge market support on debut and did run well in for 2nd, but eventually running out of track to catch the winner despite the 9th fastest L600m of the entire meeting. Despite not winning, her and the winner put a decent margin on 3rd so a repeat performance should have her hard to hold out. (9) Artistic Angel is yet to find the stronger form she was producing last prep this time in work. The set up she potentially gets here on this Balaklava track may be much better and bring on improvement. The stable of (12) Maldivica thought enough of her in her 2YO season to send her around in black type races; no public trials is the small query. (2) Simply Sid is on the quick back up today after a flashing run home last week to finish 3rd in a race that should produce good form going forwards.

Selections:
(11) Good Expectations
(9) Artistic Angel
(12) Maldivica
(2) Simply Sid

Suggested Bet – No bet, Good Expectations should prove hard to beat if she runs up to her debut but feels short below even money.

Race 3

Another tough staying race given the recent form of some of these has been patchy. (3) Rivoli View doesn’t win often but did look close to better form last start over this exact track/trip running 2nd. (7) Chartin looks a good chance if the race is run slowly and he gets a soft lead. (4) Sandpiper is the only last start winner, having scored impressively at Coleraine on Friday. She needs to step up in trip but is capable off the quick back up. (2) Cours Vite showed some improvement last start, blinkers back on and maps to the inside which could help.

Selections:
(3) Rivoli View
(7) Chartin
(4) Sandpiper
(2) Cours Vite

Suggested Bet – No bet, the recent form of these is hard to trust.

Race 4

Looks a competitive maiden. (14) Urbanise has the stronger recent form lines and softer map than rivals. Yet to place but gets the right set up. (5) Master Charlie is on the quick back up and looks well suited here rising in trip. (3) Indiamo was disappointing last start at Mildura, but may improve if positive early. (12) Prince Lucifer resumes for his 2nd prep; showed promise on debut before excuses at his next start, wide draw the concern.

Selections:
(14) Urbanise
(5) Master Charlie
(3) Indiamo
(12) Prince Lucifer

Suggested Bet – No bet, another maiden where confidence is low.

Race 5

Talented mare (1) Swiftie Harriet resumes today in a Class 1 having placed at Listed level last prep and running 4th in a Group 3. She was a winner over this track/trip first-up last prep so this looks an ideal kick-off. (3) Fussy As broke through to win his maiden last start at Bordertown and has a strong form line behind Round Two. (6) Silver Chaos has placed in her last 3 starts but may need luck from wide. (7) Omaha Dawn similar – showed improvement last time but drawn awkwardly.

Selections:
(1) Swiftie Harriet
(3) Fussy As
(6) Silver Chaos
(7) Omaha Dawn

Suggested Bet – Swiftie Harriet WIN

Race 6

(8) One Kind was an impressive winner over this track/trip last start. Drawn well again and maps positively in a similar race. (2) Ambello wasn’t far away resuming and generally improves second-up. (3) Sioux Warrior ran well last start up in grade, drops back here but wide draw is a risk. (13) Broadway Lane was a winner over this track/trip two starts back before running into the placings again last start, he is going well at this track in recent times so expecting another solid run.

Selections:
(8) One Kind
(2) Ambello
(3) Sioux Warrior
(13) Broadway Lane

Suggested Bet – No bet

Race 7

(1) Flaming Navy resumes for his 2nd prep. Proven fresh, he looks much better suited back down in grade and maps well. (8) Snipers Nightmare can race up on speed, proven at track/trip. (6) Fleurieu Flipper has hit the line well in his last couple and may be better suited if the track plays fairly. (7) High Tor found winning form when winning over this track/trip set up last week, this race appears no harder than last weeks and she really only rises in weight so looks every chance again.

Selections:
(1) Flaming Navy
(8) Snipers Nightmare
(6) Fleurieu Flipper
(7) High Tor

Suggested Bet – Flaming Navy WIN