Betsy’s Set: Balaklava Cup

Betsy’s Best:

Turf Talk:

• The Listed Balaklava Cup over the 1600m trip is the feature race of today’s meeting.
• Rail position will be in the True and a Soft-rated track is expected due to rain forecast through Tuesday and throughout the meeting. On a wet track expect to see runners come away from the inside lanes in the straight.
• Despite Balaklava having the longest straight of any South Australian thoroughbred track, it can tend to advantage on-speed runners, especially when the track is dry.

The Stats that Matter:

• No filly or mare has won the Balaklava Cup in the last 20 years.
• Lachlan Neindorf returns to riding in South Australia since relocating to Victoria. He has maintained the strong form he left SA in and is striking at 18% in his last 50 rides with an ROI of +21.3%.

Race 1
(1) KALMANA was a strong winner 2 starts back before a solid effort in behind well rated runner BACASH. Will step up in trip for this now, but draws soft and gets in well at the weights. Stablemate (2) OAKLEY MISS resumes for this today; she has been placed in 2x black type races through the start of her career but 1400m first up off what didn’t appear to be an outstanding recent trial. Two starts ago (4) ASHREIGN ran a close 3rd to (1) KALMANA which looks to be the right form reference. (5) FREEDOM FLAME can be forgiven in her last starts when it appeared she didn’t handle the wet track, looks likely to get better conditions here today.

(1) Kalmana
(2) Oakley Miss
(4) Ashreign
(5) Freedom Flame

Suggested Bet – No Bet. KALAMANA looks the one to beat but no value at the prices now with OUI OUI MA CHERIE scratched from the race. 

Race 2
The speed map looks the key to this race as it does look as if it could be run at a quick tempo which could set up the likes of (9) GRINZINGER HALO to get the right run. She showed improvement last start when rising in trip so looks ideally suited here to the 1600m 3rd up now. (5) UTAH makes his debut for a new stable here; he did finish in the placings in his last 2 starts last prep but those were over a longer distance. He may have improvement to come out of this run, but he can be hitting the line strongly. (12) SASSY SOPHIE drops in grade after a solid run last start, suited better at this level. (6) ANNANDA has run into the placings in her last 2 starts; she maps to go forward in a race without a huge amount of speed so could be in this for a long way.

(9) Grinzinger Halo
(5) Utah
(12) Sassy Sophie
(6) Annanda

Suggested Bet – No Bet, haven’t seen enough from any of these yet to be full of confidence.

Race 3
This is the first time (18) SICILIAN PRINCESS has competed in maiden grade having contested black type level in all 4 of her career starts to date. She was super impressive in a recent trial at Strathalbyn. She looks a class filly who finds the right level race here today and blinkers on could be a strong sign of intent. (10) SO POLITE resumes; she has had 3 career runs, all placings here at Balaklava. She maps well and should be in a prominent position. (9) SAFE BET has a fitness advantage on a few of these now 2nd up into the prep; suggest he will get a better run from an inside position today after getting caught wide last time. (4) SIMPLY SID next; he can mix his form but his last start was as good as we have seen him run and he could be an improver.

(18) Sicilian Princess
(10) So Polite
(9) Safe Bet
(4) Simply Sid

Suggested Bet – Sicilian Princess (Win) gets her best chance down in grade.

Race 4
(13) FIABESCA ran a close 2nd when resuming recently at Gawler and hit the line better than anything in that race which suggests rising to the 1300m here today is ideal. She was competitive in stronger races last prep and this looks winnable if she can run up to last start. (8) MONDELLO continues to run well with little success; again has a wide barrier which may make it hard, but with luck he looks to have the talent. (12) ZARUBINA has been well in the market in her last 2 starts; she gets a favourable race map from an inside barrier and gets a light weight. (9) MOONLIGHT HALO resumes off a long spell but ran very well in a recent trial and wouldn’t completely surprise.

(13) Fiabesca
(8) Mondello
(12) Zarubina
(9) Moonlight Halo

Suggested Bet – Fiabesca (Win) should be very hard to hold out if she is hitting the line like she was last start.

Race 5
(5) ONE KIND has been well supported in her 2 runs for a new stable but with no success as yet. Perhaps fair to say she hasn’t handled the heavy-rated tracks in her last 2 starts, so can see improvement here on a better-rated track if she gets it. (2) LAPILLI didn’t handle the wet track last start but was hitting the line strongly prior to that run. Needs luck again here from a wider barrier. (1) MISS GABBIANO was a winner over this track/trip 2 starts back before tackling a stronger race; drops back in grade today. (13)  EMMOOKI MAGIC is dropping well down in grade for this race today after going around at big odds last time, drawn softly and looks likely to race up on speed.

(5) One Kind
(2) Lapilli
(1) Miss Gabbiano
(13) Emmooki Magic

Suggested Bet – No Bet, thinking One Kind wins, but want to have confidence in the track not being too wet before considering a bet.

Race 6
(6) ROKABYE WARRIOR resumes here today. He finished off last prep in disappointing form, but may be suited resuming down in grade and he does appear to get a favourable on-speed run. (2) SHIKANIC was an impressive winner last start at Pt Augusta; he needs to transfer that form off the dirt and onto a wet track today. (3) OUTPOST has been tough to follow for punters of late, but faded off a wide run last start when down in grade; he maps much better here today. (4) MERCURY EIGHT will be better suited in this grade today and, if the race is favouring on-speed types, he maps for an ideal run.

(6) Rokabye Warrior
(2) Shikanic
(3) Outpost
(4) Mercury Eight

Suggested Bet – No Bet, tough to have full confidence in many of these based off their recent form.

Race 7
(1) ENCIPHERING rates well in this race off recent form. He ran in a similar set-up race to this 2 starts back but perhaps didn’t get the ideal run. If the track sneaks into the heavy range by this time of the day he could be best suited. (2) RETOURNE drops sharply in grade and is much better suited at this level. The wide barrier isn’t ideal so he may need luck in running. (3) MANDINO has run well over this track/trip previously, so wouldn’t surprise in this. (14) HAYAI MESU is dropping in class and gets in light at the weights here, which could help her see out a strong 2200m.

(1) Enciphering
(2) Retourne
(3) Mandino
(14) Hayai Mesu

Suggested Bet – No Bet, can give a lot of these a chance and conditions look key.

Race 8
(10) VALLENCOURT comes into this race 3rd up today and should start to be at peak fitness. She has won 3rd up into a prep previously, but her key advantage today is the race map. She has good early speed in a race that lacks speed; she could prove hard to catch if given a soft time of it out in front for the majority of this race. (4) VOLTAGE POINT drops well down in grade for this today after a solid run last time out but has drawn a wide barrier again. (2) TOSEN WATER comes into this race off a freshen-up; she has won 2 of her last 5 runs and placed in the other 3, so is in strong form and down in grade today suits. (3) JILLADORA rates well and found winning form early into her last prep, but is maybe better suited up in trip. Capable of winning this but expecting improvement out of this run.

(10) Vallencourt
(4) Voltage Point
(2) Tosen Water
(3) Jilladora

Suggested Bet – No Bet, would want to see the track favouring on-speed types before backing VALLENCOURT with confidence.

Race 9
Today’s feature, the Listed Balaklava Cup. Backing (5) LINGANI to defy recent history and be the first filly or mare to win the race in more than 20 years. She is in career-best form now having run 3rd in both the Group 3 Behemoth Stakes and Listed Leon Macdonald Stakes. She flies on heavy-rated tracks so confidence could be up if the track gets to that rating by this time. The wide barrier doesn’t create a huge concern from the 1600m start, so looking for her to find cover and settle around midfield. (2) DUBAI POET also comes out of the Leon Macdonald in his last start but (5) LINGANI was hitting the line stronger of the two and expect she will prefer a wetter track. Not discounting (2) DUBAI POET if the track is drier than expected and he did run 2nd in this race last year. (9) PUDDING has been spending time over in Victoria in his most recent runs and looked close to some of his better form in his last start; maps for a softer run than key rivals in this. (15) SAV ON ICE has been in career-best form recently winning 3 in a row. This probably requires a career-peak effort but he continues to run well and 1600m suits.

(5) Lingani
(2) Dubai Poet
(9) Pudding
(15) Sav On Ice

Suggested Bet – Lingani (Each Way) but keeping a close eye on track conditions as we could be keener on a wet track.

Race 10
(7) SUPER LAD has had some excuses in his last couple of starts so perhaps could have finished closer than results show. Feel he has no excuse here today as he maps for the perfect run with a strong jockey taking the ride. (8) BLUE SPECIAL may have had excuses in his last run as his prior form was much better. This race is at a similar level so with improvement he should go close. (9) BY THE BOOK had no choice but to go back from a wide barrier last start and was doing his best work late; he maps to settle a lot closer in run for this today. (6) SNIPERS NIGHTMARE maps to settle on speed which may be the ideal position in running here today, so should be included.

(7) Super Lad
(8) Blue Special
(9) By The Book
(6) Snipers Nightmare

Suggested Bet – No Bet, tough way to finish and nearly a field leg of the quaddie.