Betsy’s Set: Bendigo

Track

• Rail goes back to the true after being out 4m and 9m at the most recent two meetings.
• Default prediction with the rail true at Bendigo is an advantage to on-speed runners.
• Bendigo is a beautifully laid-out track with a generous home straight and long runs into the bend from most starts.
• There is a sprint chute for the 1000/1100m races so they only have one bend to navigate and barriers are less important.

Race 1

Sheesh, this is a moderate way to kick off a midweek meeting. There is no speed.

There’s no doubt (1) Callawadda has come back very well this campaign. He ripped home in some of the day’s best late splits at Warracknabeal before obliterating a moderate field at Ballarat last time out. He wanted to lay in badly up the straight there and could’ve won by significantly further. The advantage for him in the small field and likely moderate tempo is his strong turn of foot, which will hold him in good stead in a sit-sprint.

(1) Callawadda
(4) Thundering Falcon
(5) Highland Glory
(6) Tradeworx

Race 2

Really even contest. Can make a case for most of these. Speed from (7) Drumcondra who will likely lead. The others all have a degree of tactical speed. Maybe (2) Mongolian Gobi uses the inside alley to take leader’s back and, with Shinn aboard, (6) Ferocious Frankie will likely end up outside the leader.

Mongolian Gobi was terrific on debut, albeit in a moderate maiden. He had seven weeks between runs going into Sandown last start and was held up at a crucial stage, but was very strong through the line. Think he’s handier from gate one and 1300m suits.

Favourite (1) Diamond Gust comes through the same race as Mongolian Gobi and he was both first-up and forced to race in restricted room. Not sure there should be as much between them as there is in the market, but he’s a hope.

Blinkers went on Drumcondra last time out and he went straight to the front and wasn’t for catching at Gundagai. He’d shown ability in trials prior to his debut, but maybe a combination of the blinkers and a firmer deck saw him start to realise his potential last start. The positive for him is he can lead and control; the negative is this is a much stronger race.

(2) Mongolian Gobi
(1) Diamond Gust
(6) Ferocious Frankie
(7) Drumcondra

Race 3

The recently gelded (1) Left Hook has always shown ability in trials but has failed to deliver in two starts to date. He over-raced badly in both starts and also hasn’t had the best of luck in either outing. He has again trialled well this campaign and Blake Shinn sticks from the jump-out — the gelding could be the making of him. Either that, or he simply isn’t going to make a racehorse.

(5) Jaguar Paw has jumped out very well. His latest jump-out was very good, but I did note he wore blinkers there and has winkers on for his debut. Either way, he looked to have his mind more on the job than previous efforts with the headgear. Drawn for a nice run — can be most competitive on debut.

(4) Hyde Park Corner debuted 21 days ago at Sandown and was OK late there. He has very rapidly been gelded and now heads back to the races three weeks later. He’s got a bit of talent and will be strong late.

Think (6) Keep It Real will ultimately get further, but he was OK late in a moderate maiden on debut at Wangaratta and gets a soft run here.

(1) Left Hook
(5) Jaguar Paw
(4) Hyde Park Corner
(6) Keep It Real

Race 4

Suspect (12) Lilac Girl leads; (6) Obvious and (3) King Maywin thereabouts.

Obvious was terrific running second in a quality race at Seymour last time out and the extra 100m is ideal. Behind him was Victorious Spirit, who won well on Sunday. The winkers go on, he gets a gun run and I have him marked favourite.

Think (1) Brave Danza wins last start at Pakenham if ridden a little more positively. He’s a big-striding fella who is ideally suited to 1500m, and beyond, and drawing off the fence is ideal for him. Think he’s over the odds at around $10.

King Maywin and (7) Patriot Wolf come through the same race. King Maywin was the superior run on that occasion, but Patriot Wolf didn’t have the best of luck and should strip fitter.

(6) Obvious
(1) Brave Danza
(9) King Maywin
(7) Patriot Wolf

Race 5

Like Mark Zahra jumping aboard (3) Blazing Sword. He has trialled nicely between runs and dropping back to a mile is ideal. His win on rain-affected going at Albury three back was terrific. The query is the map — he will concede them a start.

(7) Fisherman’s Beach has been well backed for the new stable (from Freedman to Gavin Bedggood). The mile has traditionally been short of his best, but Gavin is a master with tried horses, he jumped out nicely between runs and the stable are dynamite when the money goes on.

(3) Blazing Sword
(7) Fisherman’s Beach
(6) Budjik Boy
(4) Teser

Race 6

The most likely leader is (1) Tapo, who is quick early. Like the race.

(5) Kokako has trialled like a rocket leading into this. Her narrow defeat behind Kalimna Views prior to a spell rated very well; good enough to be winning this. The little trick is the inside alley, but with even luck expect her to prove mighty hard to beat.

(4) Happy Tiers has plenty of upside. She beat a subsequent winner on debut at Kilmore, and did it comfortably. She has had two very soft trials leading into this, which is typical of the stable. Strong tempo suits.

(2) Delicate Lady had some issues just after the jump last start and ended up drifting back (normally races forward) and hammered the line to run a narrow second. Will be interesting to see if they light her up early and roll forward or decide to take a sit and let her finish off again. Only one turn, but not mad on the draw for her. (9) Smokey Warrior is cricket-score odds but will be charging late — her recent trial was OK ahead of this.

(5) Kokako
(4) Happy Tiers
(2) Delicate Lady
(9) Smokey Warrior

Race 7

It’s been a long time since (1) Colsridge has been in anything like a BM66. He goes very well fresh and a Kerang jump-out leading in was sound. The little knock is I think he’s better at 1100m than 1000m, but he does go well here at Bendigo and the chute start nullifies the wide draw.

(8) Trembles is speedy. She wouldn’t want it too wet, but she has jumped out well — as you’d expect for a fast horse — and Zahra rides. (13) Grinzinger Sun is another that will want further than 1000m but gets a beautiful run and has jumped out sharply.

(5) Bine is a newcomer to the Dabernig stable having raced in Tasmania to date. Has jumped out well, will press forward, but has to absorb a good deal of pressure here and I think she’s better over 1100m. (6) Interest Point trialled super prior to a horrendous first-up run in Adelaide. A tongue tie goes on here, which suggests he may have choked down there first-up. Maps ideally from a soft draw.

(1) Colsridge
(8) Trembles
(13) Grinzinger Sun
(5) Bine

Race 8

Massive fan of (4) Harrumph Harrumph. He posted two excellent wins to start his career — at Geelong and Sandown — last campaign. He then went to Adelaide for a Stakes race where he knocked up. He isn’t the flashiest jump-out horse, but his work this time in has been more than acceptable. He’s drawn for a sweet run and has a class edge on his rivals.

(10) Our Wishbone’s first two wins were good/rated well before potentially coming to the end of her campaign at Pakenham last start. Her trial at Ballarat leading into this was strong and she maps for a soft run. (8) Entrusting returns gelded and has jumped out OK.

(4) Harrumph Harrumph
(10) Our Wishbone
(8) Entrusting
(14) Gold Medallist