Best Bets
| Race | No. | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 6 | Fernweh | Trialled well |
| R2 | 14 | Shangri La Boy | Sharp trials |
| R7 | 11 | Our Queen | Best Bet |
Track
- +6m is a tricky rail position – with the dry track it should favour those on speed, with rails in run a solid advantage as well.
Stats
- Over the past 90 days Adam Hyeronimus is striking at a massive 26.7% with a positive POT of +44.5%.
- Peter Snowden is the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, the team is striking at 20.6% with a POT of +8.9%. They are effective with runners second and third up.
Race 1
There’s a little bit to play out pre-race here in the opener. Ideally, very keen to be with (6) Fernweh. The 3yo debuted alongside some smart types in Regulated Affair and Tyrone’s Power. He’s had 19 weeks off with two very sharp recent trials, maps well, and looks a solid bet. (17) Pictor gets a run now with plenty of scratchings, oustanding debut effort behind Grand Prairie and looked sharp in a recent 900m trial – the query is the lack of gate speed from barrier 3. I expect the Maher-trained (2) Benevac to improve sharply second-up after a game debut. Stablemate (9) Pierro Lad has also trialled well alongside Fernweh, and gate 4 with Jason Collett booked reads nicely.
(6) Fernweh
(17) Pictor
(2) Benevac
(10) Pierro Lad
Race 2
(14) Shangri La Boy goes firmly on top with Pictor coming out – solid first trial before a stylish second 1050m trial win when running time. He draws well and should find the front. (12) Snitzel Dancer looks over the odds: sneaky-good first trial followed by a sharp 1030m trial where he showed a turn of speed. The big market watch is (1) Sarapo – smart on debut behind Hidden Achievement before tapering off second-up. Turns up here fresh after 15 weeks with no official trial, so the market will guide.
(14) Shangri La Boy
(12) Snitzel Dancer
(1) Sarapo
(8) Typhoon Ali
Race 3
Cracking race. It looks (7) Just A Journey’s race to lose on paper – strong return in a sit-and-sprint won by progressive Tuileries. That was off the back of just one trial, so natural improvement second-up is expected. The query is price; she may drift late. (1) Captain Maverick looks the danger. He has to carry 60.5kg but this is easier than recent assignments. The slight knock is staying at 1550m. (8) Exclusive Artist was hammered late in betting $8 into $5.50 but peaked on the run – third-up now, he should have no excuses. (6) Highborn Harry rounds out the numbers.
(7) Just A Journey
(1) Captain Maverick
(8) Exclusive Artist
(6) Highborn Harry
Race 4
Interesting race. Happy to side with (4) Sunset Park fourth-up off the back of a gritty last-start effort. Back in grade and should control the tempo. I respect the market support for (5) Inncourt, but with his get-back, run-on pattern the $2.30 looks short. (7) Sting In The Tail drops back from 2200m to 1900m deep into the prep – Zac Lloyd should use gate 1 and race fitness to his advantage. Outside of that, (2) The Gadget Man can improve sharply back onto firmer footing.
(4) Sunset Park
(5) Inncourt
(7) Sting In The Tail
(2) The Gadget Man
Race 5
Plenty of speed expected up front here over 1100m. Hard to go past (5) Hidden Motive from a lovely inside draw. The progressive colt has looked slick winning back-to-back 1000m trials and gets in light with Braith Nock’s 2kg claim. (6) Shalaa Gold loses James McDonald but looks better suited on this drier track and holds a race fitness edge over the favourite. (4) Braveheart looks over the odds – by I Am Invincible and produced his best figure on a Soft 5 track. Improver. Outside of that, both (2) Midnight Dynamite and (7) Golden Straand will likely need 1200m+ to show their best.
(5) Hidden Motive
(6) Shalaa Gold
(4) Braveheart
(2) Midnight Dynamite
(7) Golden Straand
Race 6
Tricky event with plenty of different form lines. I’ll side with (10) Maquisa who gets the blinkers on deep into the prep. She maps to sit behind the leader and should find this easier. (11) Quein Step is the danger – she should have won last start with even luck. Up to 1100m is the only small query. (4) Miss Trentino has been heavily backed early, but she did find the fast lane last start at Newcastle, so the form is questionable. The fresh (7) Miss Freelove has genuine claims off a slick recent trial.
(10) Maquisa
(11) Quein Step
(4) Miss Trentino
(7) Miss Freelove
Race 7
Strong BM72 to close the program. (11) Our Queen is an intriguing addition to the Bjorn Baker camp. Back from 29 weeks and has looked exceptional winning two recent trials in fast time. Maps ideally from barrier 1 and is the horse to beat. (12) So You Pence is equally exciting – 13 weeks off and looked ominous in a recent Kembla trial. Danger. If the first two are vulnerable late, (3) Sydney Bowler could drop on them. He resumes here and looks well placed from barrier 7.
(11) Our Queen
(12) So You Pence
(3) Sydney Bowler
(7) Debello
