Betsy’s Set: Caulfield Cup

Race 1

Speed comes from (5) Bacash, (6) Wise Inlaw and maybe (8) Lofty Thoughts. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with (2) Kaleo who has blinkers on first time and went forward in a recent jump-out, but has drawn out. Looks an even tempo – Bacash generally likes to set a good gallop.

Ideal that (1) Matahga resumes at 1400m. He is every bit a middle-distance horse. He hits a real flat spot in his races but works through his gears very well. His win over Ethereum Girl in the Oaklands Plate last start was excellent, grinding her down over the final 200m. Ethereum Girl went on to win a Group 3 at her next start and resumed with a second in the Thousand Guineas Prelude. Lachlan Neindorf hasn’t ridden this bloke on raceday as yet but has been on in both trials, so hopefully understands that he can hit the flat spot before building the revs. He’s going to be back in the ruck – which is a negative – but think he could be the most talented horse in the race and $10 appeals.

Don’t like the map for Kaleo but loved the recent trial with the blinkers on. He was a dominant winner here at Caulfield/1400m last campaign and looks to have come back better.

(4) Call Da Vinci brings good Queensland form and has jumped-out reasonably well down here. He will be better at a mile, I suspect, but can run a good race fresh.

Thought Bacash was a query at 1400m but he put that to bed at Sandown last start. He is going to give a good sight up on speed.

That race doesn’t end there. (9) Sulek has talent, but was just a touch flattered by the pattern at Sandown (headwind meant cover was a premium). While Wise Inlaw will give a sight on speed.

Selections:
(1) Matahga
(2) Kaleo
(5) Bacash
(4) Call Da Vinci

Suggested Bet: Tough race. Better betting options.

Race 2 – Caulfield Classic

This is a race devoid of speed.

Suspect (10) Fabulous Fiano leads and maybe (9) Deal Done Fast is handy. In their limited careers to date, the rest all like to take a sit.

Think (9) Deal Done Fast can also run a race at big odds. He was stopped in his tracks at a crucial stage in the Derby trial, a key form reference for this race. He drew out there and went back, on Saturday he draws better and suspect he is going to camp handier in a race totally devoid of speed. The 2000m for this son of Dundeel is perfect and at $15 vs his rivals out of that Derby trial at between $4 and $6 he looks great value.

The 100/1 pop (10) Fabulous Fiano can run a race at huge odds. He will lead and control here. The blinkers and tongue tie go on and trials prior to his first two runs suggest he has some ability. He probably went a touch hard at Sale last time out, but Mott can control the tempo as he likes here and he knows the horse having ridden him in all his jump-outs.

I think (7) Arabian Prince is clearly the best horse/stayer in the race. He was super first up without a trial or jump-out in the Super Impose, working to the line like a horse that is going to be hard to beat in the Derby. The knock is he’s probably going to get a fair way back.

Not a lot between the key there that comes through the Derby trail plus (2) Miewa is honest and hitting the line like 2000m will suit.

The opportunity is certainly there for a stable/jockey that want to push more forward here, but on paper this looks a muddling run affair.

Selections:
(9) Deal Done Fast
(10) Fabulous Fiano
(7) Arabian Prince
(2) Miewa

Suggested Bet: Small plays on Deal Done Fast and Fabulous Fiano.

Race 3 – Ethereal Stakes

Speed comes from (3) Just A Journey, (8) Grand Omaha, maybe (1) Spicy Lu who is drawn awkwardly. Speed looks moderate, but these fillies are getting to the 2000m for the first time, so that should inject some tempo.

Boy, this is a moderate race. With that in mind, I can’t do anything but go value hunting.

Just a Journey maps well but she has to be a serious query at the mile. She had the softest lead possible in the Edward Manifold and couldn’t hold off her rivals. She will again get every chance on speed but it’s hard to dive in at the $2.45 on offer…

(5) After Summer won the slowest run race in the history of the world at Flemington last time out (33L below standard to the 800m mark) – The Oaks Trial. The three horses that have had a run since out of that race have gone very poorly. That said, she’s on an upward trajectory and think she’s a nice filly. Had a little tick-over jump-out between runs and gets a soft trail right on speed here.

(12) Future Frankie could be the x-factor. She is on the eight-day back-up after debuting over a mile at Cranbourne last Friday night. She cast a plate prior to the race and went barefoot behind, which can’t have assisted. She also got a mile back on a night you wanted to be on speed, hitting the line strongly, including the second-best last 200m split of the night. She went back on debut but she jumped the gates well in her jump-out prior to that performance, so from gate two expect her to be right on speed. This may come up too soon, but think she can run a big race at odds.

The other roughie I like is (7) Arizona Luck. She raced like a 2000m horse when winning over 1200m on debut at Hamilton. She then hit the line strongly enough in an on-speed dominated Thousand Guineas Prelude. Last time out she took on the older horses at Ballarat and just spotted them too big a start in a race the backmarkers lost sight of the lure. Think that 0-62 she contested last time out is much stronger form than anything her rivals come through, so at 50/1 she has to be over the odds.

Selections:
(7) Arizona Luck
(12) Future Frankie
(5) After Summer
(6) Just Kick

Suggested Bet: Small bets Arizona Luck/Future Frankie

Race 4 – Gothic Stakes

Good edition of the race.

(3) Raging Force will look to lead. (1) McGaw kicks up off gate one.

(2) Tentyris was in the wrong part of the track behind McGaw in the Danehill and just felt the pinch the last 200m fresh (10.26 from 400-200m then 11.32 the last 200m). He should derive a lot of fitness benefit from that and the step to 1200m is ideal.

(3) Raging Force brings the superior formlines through Beiwacht and the Sydney 3yos. He was super two back in the San Domenico and pulled up with a slow recovery last start. Has trialled very nicely between runs and will have a tactical edge over his rivals.

(1) McGaw is still improving. He has had a tendency to over-race to date and he will only continue to iron out those kinks.

Selections:
(2) Tentryis
(3) Raging Force
(1) McGaw
(8) Sheza Alibi

Suggested Bet: Think the market has it right and wary of the Sydney form being superior/Raging Force blowing them away.

Race 5 – Alinghi Stakes

Speed comes form (1) Austmarr and 1000m specialist (9) Stokke. Don’t think (4) Hi Dubai will be too far away with Shinn aboard. Even tempo, at best.

Got a fair bit of time for (2) Jasmin Rouge and think she can run well first up. She has had two trials to prepare for this and has shown excellent ability in her short career to date. She didn’t have a lot of luck at a key stage in a quality Sunlight Classic in one run last campaign then clearly had some sort of setback as she trialled two weeks later but was spelled. Her win at this track over 1200m last spring was excellent and from gate four she needn’t get too far off them.

(12) Akaysha will need some luck off gate one, but it could also aide her if Jye McNeil can get her out of the gates and even up behind the leader. She is flying. Her run two back behind My Gladiola was the run of the race and then she beat home Beadman at Rosehill last time out. Goes well at the trip and with the breaks is a big winning hope.

(1) Austmarr had issues fresh but can get a good run on speed, same can be said for Stokke who can control, the end of 1100m being the query.

Selections:
(2) Jasmin Rouge
(12) Akaysha
(1) Austmarr
(5) Stokke

Suggested Bet: Nothing at this stage.

Race 6 – Caulfield Sprint

Pattern will be important here.

(7) Zealously looks the leader. (4) Sghirippa handy with Nash up from a soft draw.

(1) Rey Magnerio needn’t be too far away from gate four. He probably should’ve beaten Estriella in this race last year when held up before flashing late to narrowly miss. The start prior to that he was beaten 0.3L by Jimmysstar at this track. First up in the autumn he again resumed at Caulfield and won the Rubiton with 58kg, albeit at 1100m. Prefer him at 1100m, but think he can win at 1000m off an impressive body of work at the jump-outs. Big price for the class runner.

Concede Zealously is a chance but he’s certainly well enough found. He posted a huge rating when breaking the track record first up at Warwick Farm having trialled like a rocket. His firm track record is outstanding, and he could well get total control here.

(3) Arabian Summer had no luck last time out while (2) Nadal (if he races!) has the talent.

Selections:
(1) Rey Magnerio
(7) Zealously
(3) Arabian Summer
(2) Nadal

Suggested Bet: 1×3 E/W Rey Magnerio

Race 7 – Thousand Guineas

Speed from (9) Ethereum Girl, (11) Chateau Eze, maybe (1) Apocalyptic and (4) Getta Good Feeling from gate two.

Apocalyptic draws perfectly for her first Caulfield run and gets every chance. Comes out of two slowly run races and didn’t quite put them away in the Flight. She’s a winner and Zahra rides Caulfield as well as anyone, but odds-on is too short with so many unknowns among the fillies.

Getta Good Feeling looks over the odds. Badly held up at Flemington but still won. The Victorian fillies are evenly matched and from gate two she gets a dream run.

Chateau Eze was close to a hot tempo in the Jim Moloney at just her second start and stuck on well in a race dominated by swoopers. Her debut win was dominant and she’s trialled well since. Positive ride early and she’s right in the mix at odds.

(12) Mating Call probably wants 2000m and a better draw but has talent and will be strong late.

Ole Dancer has had a perfect prep and Ethereum Girl might control the tempo if she relaxes.

Selections:
(4) Getta Good Feeling
(11) Chateau Eze
(1) Apocalyptic
(12) Mating Call

Suggested Bet: Can have something small on Getta Good Feeling and Chateau Eze.

Race 8 – Moonga Plate

Good edition of this race.

Speed looks good. (1) Here To Shock, (3) Willaidow, (6) Media World, along with (2) Private Eye roll forward.

Private Eye brings top-shelf form to this and he seems to be relishing the 1400m. He’s in very well under the SWP scale of the race with his superior rating of 114. Wide draw is a little trick to overcome, but they should go hard and break up, which likely allows Nash to find a spot just behind the leaders. His second to Pericles in the Tramway reads very well for this.

Think the main danger is Here To Shock. This pair both went around in the Lawrence and whilst Private Eye was clearly the better that day, that was a sit-sprint which isn’t going to suit Here To Shock. Deeper into the campaign now, he can run well.

The pressure should suit (7) Royal Insignia who will get back and charge late.

Selections:
(2) Private Eye
(1) Here To Shock
(7) Royal Insignia
(9) Payline

Suggested Bet: Happy to watch

Race 9 – Caulfield Cup

You can click here for my Caulfield Cup speed map. 

I think the Turnbull is the best form reference to the 2025 Caulfield Cup.

Amazing to think (15) Half Yours was beaten in a BM64 at Sandown in May (yes, I backed him there) and is now a short-priced favourite for the Caulfield Cup. But, frankly, he deserves to be. His win in the Naturalism was outstanding, as was his 2400m Caloundra Cup victory in the winter. He’s no issue at the distance and to top it off, his run in the Turnbull when poorly weighted, was a blinder – as good a Caulfield Cup trial as you will see. He is drawn to get a soft run in transit and only needs even luck and a clear passage to prove awfully hard to beat.

The other horse I want on side is (10) Deakin. This bloke won his way into the Melbourne Cup last season so Phillip Stokes has been able to place him as he pleases. He went to the line basically with Half Yours in the Turnbull, but the key thing to do is roll forward and watch the 200m past the post – he was up with Sir Delius. His preparation has been faultless and now he gets to a winning distance.

(3) Middle Earth looks ready to peak, also coming through that Turnbull. There’s no better big race rider than Mark Zahra and whilst the map is sticky for this bloke, Zahra is the right man for the task. He has been building towards a peak run at 2400m and think he is set to run a big race.

Simon and Ed Crisford know how to travel a horse to Australia and perform, their charge (4) Meydaan is lightly raced but has strong formlines behind some world class stayers. The barrier draw has been kind to him; he should get a lovely run; and Andrea Atzeni has plenty of rides early in the day to get his eye in.

The Metropolitan is the other key form reference. It was run at a strong tempo and won by (16) Royal Supremacy who is to be ridden by Melbourne Cup hero Robbie Dolan. Thought he was short enough, but he does map for a good run. (1) Vauban also comes through that race and he was tightened up late, he is a bit of an enigma but if ‘good Vauban’ turns up then he’s in the game.

Selections:
(15) Half Yours
(10) Deakin
(3) Middle Earth
(4) Meydaan

Suggested Bet: Backing Half Yours/Deakin

Race 10 – Tristarc Stakes

Speed primarily from (1) Miraval Rose, (8) Sassy Boom. (4) Lady Jones not far away along with (10) Tuileries.

Gee, (5) Abounding is due a change of luck! She has been terrific in all three runs down here, including a luckless second to (2) Splash Back in the Stocks Stakes last start, a key form reference for this. She is drawn ideally to sit just in behind the speed and provided she finally gets an issue free run, I think she can be winning.

Grahame Begg has a strong hold on this race with (1) Miraval Rose and Splash Back, who will settle at opposite ends of the field. They will both run well again.

Selections:
(5) Abounding
(2) Splash Back
(1) Miraval Rose
(8) Sassy Boom

Suggested Bet: Happy to back Abounding.