| Best Bets | Race | Horse |
|---|---|---|
| Key Chance | R6 | No.6 Oceans Above |
| Best Bet | R5 | No.2 You’re Two Vain |
| Next Best | R3 | No.6 Wolfoffitroystreet |
| Value | R7 | No.4 Sirena |
Turf Talk:
- Rail Out 2 metres here and Good 4 track condition.
- Track played well last week here and feel could win from anywhere, thinking will be much the same here with track likely to be upgraded to a Good 3 during the day.
2yo race with majority on debut here.
Liked the recent jump-outs of (6) Astilla at Mornington, who has shown good speed in those heats. She’s in a proven juvenile stable and feel she’ll run a bold race on debut.(5) Angelic Rise started hard in the market on debut at Flemington when $6 and seemed to fail on the heavy ground. Trials were good leading in though and she could certainly bounce back on firm ground.
(2) Ko Phangan has jumped out well at Cranbourne on a few occasions and has shown good speed. Have to respect it here.
(7) Oman was closing off strongly in her trial at the Caulfield Heath and although she may want further, looks to have decent ability.
Selections:
(6) Astilla
(5) Angelic Rise
(2) Ko Phangan
(7) Oman
Strategy: No Bets.
Tricky race this with a few of these knocking on the door of a win.
(2) Cash Converter is in good form and liked his effort when 2nd at 1400m last start and thought he was strong late there. Up to the mile here in a race with not much speed, think he could position on-pace and give a sight.(6) On Broadway is racing well and gets the services of Mark Zahra. Stuck to the task at Mornington and if replicates that performance has to be a key chance.
(5) Island Boy and (4) Aitu come through the 1800m 3yo contest at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day and both finished well back, ratings wise they ran similar to their Maiden wins and are much better suited here.
Selections:
(2) Cash Converter
(6) On Broadway
(5) Island Boy
(4) Aitu
Strategy: No firm opinion. Happy to leave the race alone.
Liked the debut of (6) Wolfoffitroystreet at Echuca, when he was strongest late over 1400m from a long way back. Draws well here in Gate 2 and gets a big jockey switch with Ethan Brown taking over. Trials leading into his debut suggested he has ability and liked what I saw there to say he can improve at his second start.(10) Cooly was solid at Ballarat last start and she looks well suited getting to the 1600m here 4th up. Maps for a good run for Luke Nolen.
(7) Marine Empress ran some nice races last prep and rated well. In a good stable and respect the early market assessment of her, albeit feel she’s well found given may want the run fresh.
(4) Harry Devil looks next best given racing well and race fit.
Selections:
(6) Wolfoffitroystreet
(10) Cooly
(7) Marine Empress
(4) Harry Devil
Strategy: Wolfoffitroystreet (Win).
Tricky enough race here with (6) Egerton and (2) Grouse Mountain both first up with similar ratings profiles from last prep. Don’t think there’s a lot between them on class but the edge might be with Egerton who is perhaps the sharper horse. Both of them have trialled up well.(1) Cavallo Rampante has the talent to win a race of this ilk but has a bad racing pattern which sees her often too far back to win. Think she’d be back again here and spot the key dangers a start, given that think she’s under the odds.
(5) Innocent Enuff should push forward here and is race fit. Best of her form would see her right in the mix.
Selections:
(6) Egerton
(2) Grouse Mountain
(1) Cavallo Rampante
(5) Innocent Enuff
Strategy: No Bets.
Like this race as think it will be a strong race going forward and feel the best horse has been undervalued by the market here, given he won at Corowa first-up, which is (3) You’re Two Vain. He’s unbeaten in three starts and has a great racing pattern being on speed. He was first-up from nearly 6 months at Corowa and the race was run at a frantic speed mid-stages, which left him vulnerable late. His 400-200m split was 3.1 lengths above the Class par, however his 200m-Finish was only 0.1 length above, which indicates to me that he was racing tired late and lacked fitness. Despite that he won well in fast time with a big weight of 61.5kgs. Every challenge he’s faced he has raised the bar and feel we haven’t seen the best of him yet. Happy to take the $2.60 on offer as just feel he’s open to a lot of improvement 2nd up.Concede that (5) Hustle In Heels is a ripper though and she was mighty impressive at Cranbourne on return. She gets the stalking run here and could be lethal late.
(1) Condor ran well fresh in Adelaide behind some handy ones including Wiggum. He can improve 2nd up here and does look to be right on pace.
The last prep of (4) Misty Legend was very good and whilst he has changed stables, think he could be in the finish here.
Selections:
(3) You’re Two Vain
(5) Hustle In Heels
(1) Condor
(4) Misty Legend
Strategy: You’re Two Vain (Win).
Loved the run of (6) Oceans Above last week when he got back and steamed home off a slow speed, rattling off some slick sectionals when 6.2 lengths faster than the Class par for his last 400m. Gate 1 here means shouldn’t be as far back and Craig Williams on is another positive. Super keen on him.(4) Too Big is racing in great form and is a tough on-pacer. Maps to go right forward here and should give a good sight.
(7) Suntora is coming out of harder races and gets Mark Zahra on. Think she’s short enough in betting but concede she’s a winning chance on best form.
(8) Verifier probably hasn’t been racing at his best but is capable on his day and has been building towards something. Could see him improving at odds.
Selections:
(6) Oceans Above
(4) Too Big
(7) Suntora
(8) Verifier
Strategy: Oceans Above (Win).
Liked the most recent effort of (4) Sirena at Bendigo when good late behind Fear No Evil (who has run well since in harder grade), on what was an on-pace day at Bendigo. Step up to 1600m looks ideal for her 3rd up and thought she mapped for a good run.(3) Enchanted Jenni is flying at the minute and maps for a good spot behind the leaders. Has to be a leading contender.
(7) Tempranillo won well latest and whilst this is much harder, could improve again with confidence up.
(2) Empire Of Pain is perhaps coming through the best lead up race at Flemington when 6th behind First Chorus. She was weak late there though and query her strength at the end of 1600m with pressure here from roughie (9) Diamanda, concede she has the ability however to be in the finish.
Selections:
(4) Sirena
(3) Enchanted Jenni
(7) Tempranillo
(2) Empire Of Pain
Strategy: Sirena (Win).
Looks the ideal race for (4) Tennessee Bound to make her metropolitan debut in. She looks special, both wins at Kyneton and Cranbourne, she’s smashed the clock and put good margins on her rivals. Both of those wins she’s also looked she’s had more to offer. Convinced she’s at least Group class and should be making light work of these before something harder.(8) Escarpa is fit for recent racing and maps for a good run. Can finish in the Top 4 with no surprise.
(7) Nepravda was good fresh at Kyneton and has early gate speed, expect her to be on-pace in the small field.
(1) Wolf Twenty One won well at his home track on return and looks a horse with upside. Is another with place claims.
Selections:
(4) Tennessee Bound
(8) Escarpa
(7) Nepravda
(1) Wolf Twenty One
Strategy: Just cheer Tennessee Bound but too short to bet given $1.20 odds.
