Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 10 No.1 Gracie’s Rain
Next best: Race 6 No.7 Supernima
Turf talk:
- Caulfield Heath track has been playing very well this season.
- Horses can make ground, provided they build momentum coming toward the home bend.
- Will be dealing with a firm track after warm weather throughout the week.
- Southerly winds should assist horses on speed.
Key Stats:
- Annabel and Rob Archibald are going well, striking at 22% from their last 100 runners with a PoT of 26.9% for the punters.
- Craig Williams rides the Heath track brilliantly. He has had 13 winners from 44 rides at 29.6%.
Race 1
(4) Touchdown is most progressive. He was dominant at Sale two back. Whilst last start wasn’t as dominant here on the Heath, think Fiorenot (second) goes very well, and they spaced third. He’s drawn to get a gun run and the 3kg claim for Jackson Radley comes in handy. Short enough, but hard to suggest he’s under the odds – think he’s clearly the horse to beat.
(5) Trapalanda was good first-up at Ballarat and he should strip notably fitter. May need a little luck getting the right run from a tricky draw but he’s in the mix.
(3) Sigiriya Rock is racing very well. Maps OK, has the run at 1800m under his belt this campaign and is at peak fitness. Lacks the upside of a Touchdown, but hard to see him not running well here.
(2) Rainbow Delight ran OK at Pakenham coming off a decent spell, having not come up in the winter.
Selections:
(4) Touchdown
(5) Trapalanda
(3) Sigiriya Rock
(2) Rainbow Delight
Suggested bet: None
Race 2
Average race, this.
Giving (2) Wymark a hope at his third start for Gavin Bedggood. Hasn’t shown a lot since winning the Tulloch Stakes as a 3YO but thought ran OK at Pakenham. Can settle right near the speed from a low draw, getting to 1800m, and this is a much weaker BM84 than what he contested last week. Was also five weeks between runs last start, now backs up within seven days.
(8) Oraqua has found a new lease on life since joining Mitch Freedman’s yard. He’s arguably better on rain-affected going but is at peak fitness and should be in this a long way.
(6) Sneaky Sunrise had a lot of favours at Ballarat last time out, so she seems very short at the $1.90 on offer. Genuine query at 1800m, for mine, but should get a soft run on speed and Radley’s claim helps.
Selections:
(2) Wymark
(8) Oraqua
(6) Sneaky Sunrise
(4) Ocean Beyond
Suggested bet: None
Race 3
Speed even.
Think (2) Mixxit can come across and sit outside the leader. He carried 63.5kg first up at Cranbourne getting straight to the mile and ran well there. He strips significantly fitter here and drops to 58.5kg with the claim for Emily Pozman. This looks an ideal race.
(11) Miss Playlounge finished ninth of eleven last week at Pakenham but there’s a case to be made she would’ve been in the finish with even luck. She has a really good turn of foot, gate eight is ideal for her, and on her day she’s up to winning a race like this.
Got a bit of an opinion of (8) Sea Strike. Will be better over further than a mile but has trialled up nicely and Lachie King knows him well. Can run a race at big odds.
(1) Angland dumped the rider at Ballarat when heavily backed last start. He can figure in the finish here but does have a sticky map.
Selections:
(2) Mixxit
(11) Miss Playlounge
(8) Sea Strike
(1) Angland
Suggested bet: If spending $30 on the race I am having $20 on Mixxit, $7.50 on Miss Playlounge and $2.50 on Sea Strike.
Race 4
(9) Knobelas is a promising mare. She was dominant winning first up and now gets the bar plates off here. Her form is good on top of the ground, she maps for a soft run behind the leader, and with even luck she will be in the finish. That said, she’s certainly well enough found at $2.
(1) Presser looks a touch over the odds. He had no hope in the farcically run Kilmore Cup but was excellent the start prior, coming from the tail to win the Peninsula Cup. He has trialled nicely between runs and draws for a lovely run.
(4) Roadcone looks ready now third up. Slightly sticky gate but with the right run can figure in the finish.
(8) Dark Simba was excellent in the same race Roadcone comes through two back and then went to Sydney and struck a moderate run race that didn’t suit. Drawn well.
Selections:
(1) Presser
(9) Knobelas
(4) Roadcone
(8) Dark Simba
Suggested bet: Something small 1×3 E/W Presser – think he will be in the finish.
Race 5
See my FULL PREVIEW of the 2yo race HERE.
Selections:
(8) Unit Five
(10) Oman
(3) Guest House
(9) Kiss Me In Paris
Suggested bet: Backing Unit Five/Oman
Race 6
Like this race.
Think (7) Supernima can roll forward and sit outside the leader. He has come back in super order. Beat three subsequent winners at Pakenham last time out and whilst this is a rise in grade, he only needs to hold his rating to beat this lot. Luke Cartwright has had three rides on the horse, including a last start win, so his claim is valuable here. Have him marked favourite.
(4) Rue De Royale had to work quite hard in the early and mid-stages at Ballarat first up and beat off the co-leader before being swamped late. Never placed from five goes at 1200m, but that’s a bit misleading as those runs have been against stronger company.
(3) Miss Icelandic is going well. Gets a soft run and a weight turnaround on (11) Swiftie Harriet from their Ballarat meeting. Suited back on firmer footing, too.
Selections:
(7) Supernima
(3) Miss Icelandic
(4) Rue De Royale
(11) Swiftie Harriet
Suggested bet: Keen on Supernima E/W
Race 7
Good race.
(1) Job Done was very good this track over 1000m first up. He showed a beautiful turn of foot to reel in Cavalry Girl when it looked a forlorn task at the 200m mark. He has a lethal change-up speed which will see him charge at the leaders late. Wide draw no issue, he needs clean air.
(7) Gliding Lightening has always shown good talent in trials and she took that to the races at Mornington when breaking her maiden first up this campaign. Maps for an ideal run on speed.
(5) Hi Val had no luck in the Blue Sapphire. Drawn well.
Selections:
(1) Job Done
(7) Gliding Lightening
(5) Hi Val
(10) Swoboda
Suggested bet: Happy to watch. 1,7 for the quaddie. Extra units on the 1.
Race 8
Tricky race.
(10) Recuperato was good in the Blue Sapphire stakes and her 2YO form is strong enough to see her most competitive in this race. She will drift back but will be strong late.
(11) Satin Diva maps for a lovely run stepping to the 1200m. She was strong late behind Job Done here fresh and she’s a filly that I’ve always had plenty of time for.
(1) Stay Focused will press forward and settle right on speed. Was five weeks between runs at Pakenham last time out.
(2) Gin A Tonic is a query at 1200m and had the pattern in his favour last time out, but if fit, racing well and makes his own luck.
Selections:
(10) Recuperato
(11) Satin Diva
(1) Stay Focused
(2) Gin A Tonic
Suggested bet: Backing the 3YOs: Recuperato and Satin Diva.
Race 9
The speedsters do battle here and Beast Mode is the likely leader. Samangu, South Of India, Chinqui all there. Plenty of speed for a small field.
(1) Beast Mode stretched to 1100m last start and it’s just too far for him, he is an out-and-out 1000m horse. He should find the front here and take a stack of catching back in grade. Has his share of weight with 60.5kg, but he’s got the class to overcome it.
(6) Chinqui gets in with 52.5kg with the claim and that gives him a serious winning chance. Forgive first up on the heavy at Flemington, he has been freshened up and trialled nicely between runs. Can use the inside draw to settle handy to the speed.
(2) Samangu is a classy mare, She moved well in the jump-out won by Beast Mode here last Friday. Do think she’s more an 1100/1200m horse, but she’s drawn well and gets a handy claim.
Selections:
(1) Beast Mode
(6) Chinqui
(2) Samangu
(3) South Of India
Suggested bet: No huge interest. 1 and 6 for the quaddie. If backing 1 I’d also have something small on 6.
Race 10
No speed here at all. (1) Gracie’s Rain should come across and control and for that reason she is clearly the horse to beat. Was super first-up on the main track here before going to a soft deck at Ballarat when knocking up late, but she’s better on top of the ground.
It will be interesting to see how they ride (4) Paradise City this campaign. She had best success when being ridden up on speed two campaigns back. She was ridden quietly/missed the kick in both runs last campaign and has been ridden quietly in two jump-outs this time in. She has prepped up nicely for this return and her best is certainly good enough to win a race like this.
(3) Dollar Shot was luckless at Ballarat in the same race Gracie’s Rain comes through. She’s a really good 1200m horse who should get a gun run from a soft draw. That said, she is better with the sting out as opposed to being on top of the ground.
(7) Quiseen has trialled nicely between runs having had little luck at Geelong last time out.
Selections:
(1) Gracie’s Rain
(4) Paradise City
(3) Dollar Shot
(7) Quiseen
Suggested bet: Keen Gracie’s Rain.
