Betsy’s Set: Doomben Saturday

Turf Talk:

• Rail 4.5m. Usually a very fair rail.
• This track is always a ‘map’ track and you want to be somewhere near the speed and not caught wide.
• Short runs to the first corner from the 1050m, 1100m, 1200m and 1630m starts.

Stats That Matter:

• Matt Dunn‘s stable has started the new season with 13 winners from 77 starters and a ROI of 18.8% (flat stake).
• Chris and Corey Munce in similar form this season. 10 winners from 49 runners and ROI of 18.1%.

Race 1

Not the best strike rate but (3) Alectrona is knocking the door down to win one. Liked the fact they took up a spot in running last start and just beaten by a good one. This is no harder and really well placed. opened around $2.90 and had steady support for days. (2) Tijuana Two Step has a good strike rate (15:7:2:1) but probably found her level. Maps well and claim helps. (5) One Beat No Beat is the Dunn/Mallyon combo and this is ready to show best after three runs back. Some of the best late splits of the three races she has contested and may sit closer from a good gate here.

Selections:
(3) Alectrona
(2) Tijuana Two Step
(5) One Beat No Beat
(10) In Great Spirit

Suggested Bet: Win (3) Alectrona

Race 2

Many might see (1) Fleet Commander being beaten big margins but the runs have been better than they read. This is a heck of a lot easier than those races and 3kg claim is a big help. I can see why (2) Misterkipchoge is likely fave but I have nearly had enough of the horse. Can put some good runs together, then mix form and only won 2 of 24. This will be the best chance he gets to win again though. Best L200m last start and this is easier. Going wide for exotics, (15) Pleadeel was strong late and might be some value. (16) Shadow Cruiser is a non winner but like the race it comes through more than the race most of them come through.

Selections:
(2) Misterkipchoge
(1) Fleet Commander
(15) Pleadeel
(16) Shadow Cruiser

Suggested Bet: Win (2) Misterkipchoge $3.50 and smaller (1) Fleet Commander

Race 3

(6) Foreign Press is Gollan and draws to lead or sit on leaders back. Two wins and a runner up from three runs this prep. Rock hard fit and a hope again. The odds-on quote is too short for mine. (5) Ha’penny Hatch would have been a bet from a gate. Big concern as to where it lands now. Will be strong late and win races this prep. (4) Worthy Enuff was ok last prep and every chance of coming back a better horse. No official trial so watch the market. (2) Stiktodascrypt will have a heap of support with the Alpha Sofie formlines. Has the ability to roll forward and a repeat of the last run would just about win here.

Selections:
(2) Stiktodascrypt
(5) Ha’penny Hatch
(6) Foreign Press
(4) Worthy Enuff

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 4

Race day the key here and likely a dozen scratchings. Simply going good gates here. (4) Troika is no star but has a few positives. Maps well from the good gate, gets 3kg off and comes here 3rd up and ready to show best. (14) She’s Exotic has won 4 of 5 and has the upside. Also has tactical speed to sit up on speed. Stable +18.8% ROI from the start of the season. (23) The Enchanter is lightly raced in a good stable. Better for recent runs and could be big improver if we are on a good track.

Selections:
(23) The Enchanter
(4) Troika
(14) She’s Exotic
(16) Negotiations

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 5

(12) Ouroboros deserves to be fave and will be the likely leader again. Dominant 2.2L win last start, stable back in form and drops 4kg off that win. Big fan of (2) Battlefield. No match for the winner last start but comes here 3rd up and ready to show best. Might be able to sit a little closer and will be strong late. (1) Beaux Rumble is a consistent type who will map right on speed, take a claim and be hard to run down. If a drop of rain comes, (9) Shalailed has to be promoted. Form has been ok for the new stable but he’s a superior horse when the cut is out of the ground.

Selections:
(2) Battlefield
(12) Ouroboros
(1) Beaux Rumble
(9) Shalailed

Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,2,12

Race 6

(2) Larrikin Rogue has been good at both runs this prep and not far off the winners. Can get back and might be better suited on bigger track. (5) Pannier looked like Black Caviar first up in Toowoomba. He has been excellent since joining Currie and if he repeats the last start effort he will win here.  (4) Great Aspirations is capable on its day and want to respect. After scratching’s this is a chance. Can map behind the leaders and the last start win was solid. (11) Take A Picture is better for the two runs back and set to peak here 3rd up.

Selections:
(5) Pannier
(2) Larrikin Rogue
(4) Great Aspirations

(11) Take A Picture

Suggested Bet: Win (5) Pannier

Race 7

Don’t like this at all, anything could win and not surprise. (9) Hurts So Good just couldn’t get it done over 1200m and likely to be kept at 1000-1100m this time in. Will sit off them but has a turn of foot that can get it into the race. Has been a drifter in the market though. (1) Nettuno has class but can mix it up. Recent form good, can he hold that and win again? (2) The Inflictor has class, has won 3 of 6 at Doomben and is tactically versatile. Had two trials to be ready for this. (8) Party For Two leads for a long way but not sure she is at her very best. Still a winning chance.

Selections:
(9) Hurts So Good
(1) Nettuno
(2) The Inflictor
(8) Party For Two

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 8

Not going to lie, still a bit sick on the last start and the ride on (1) Ducasse. Harley is one of my faves but got it to a poor spot and task too big. Clearly the best L400m and 200m of the race and should have won. Loses Harley for 3kg apprentice and an inside gate, not always great at Doomben if you don’t hold a spot. (6) Bullion Boy has won 2 of 3 this prep and has the good on speed pattern. Can’t knock the form but meets a few worse off at the weights here. Didn’t like the ride on (7) Cunnamulla Fella last time either. Soft in the market and the ride stunk. Was best horse through the line and new jock goes on. (2) Caboche lacks upside but still in good form and winning chance. (10) Battleton has no weight and chance for exotics.

Selections:
(1) Ducasse
(6) Bullion Boy
(7) Cunnamulla Fella
(2) Caboche

Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Ducasse

Race 9

Gollan will try and dictate the speed here with (1) Free Carry and (4) Blazen Boots going forward together. He’s just too smart for them and no doubt that’s how the race pans out. Too scared to bet against him as he just out-thinks them all the time. Free Carry was a bit weak last start but it was noted to be too firm, so maybe a forgive. Blazen Boots is no star but is consistent and comes here 3rd up and ready to produce best on a track he loves (10:4:1:0). (2) Deep Focus is well above average but his fresh run was hopeless and trial this week was worse. I’d have to see money for it. (12) Simply Amazing was scratched midweek for this. Has won three races this prep and solid in the other two. Still has upside.

Selections:
(1) Free Carry
(12) Simply Amazing
(4) Blazen Boots
(5) Extraordinaire

Suggested Bet: Small win bet (1) Free Carry