| Race | Horse | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| R3/1 | First Mission | Best Bet – Backed for a stack at first start for stable and bolted in. |
| R7/1 | Grafterburners | Best Bet – Spots them weight but he has class and trials have been good. |
| R4/6 | Capital Asset | Value – Winner first start for new stable and over the odds here. |
| R9/2 | Kronenbourg | Roughie – Slow recovery last start; winner before that and $20 is an over-reaction. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail 3m
- Warm week and expecting this track to play on the firm side.
- It is a case of horses for courses and if they have won on this track it’s a positive sign.
The Stats That Matter:
- D.Moor hasn’t had the start he’d have liked in Qld. Just 3 winners from last 50 but with 18 place-getters the frustrating part. Has a good book and is today the day his luck changes?
- The Currie train keeps on going, striking at 24% for his last 50 and has a team that could win another couple today.
- Heinrich and Rodgers have trained 5 of their last 21 to victory and finding good form. The last couple have been $12 and $19.
Race 1
(5) Pocketmoney is in the stable that’s been flying for some time but went down to the all time non-winner Boom Shot last start. Gets a perfect run on speed here, good jock and every chance.
(4) Kinross Lane is in the other hot stable and was great until last start. They said too firm and this track will be more firm?
(3) Araletta settles on speed and can be in this for a long way. She can be a little soft late and the last 50m might be the query.
Like what (8) Keiko Say has been doing, but it’s been in easier races. Sharp stable that you have to keep safe when they bring them to town. Same story for (9) Pride Of Venus who has a picket fence for a good stable up north.
Selections:
(5) Pocketmoney
(8) Keiko Say
(3) Araletta
(11) Trapedo
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Think we should have more CL1 races on a Saturday, interesting race.
We will run through them top to bottom.
Gollan has (1) Adranos and he is a consistent type. Only won 1 of 9 with 6 placings is the issue. Maps well, Maloney rides and goes close. Also has (6) Now Is The Hour who was a dominant winner fresh and then beaten at $1.50 last start. Not beaten far there but don’t want those odds again.
(9) Charlie Tango led them up on debut and ran away from them. This is harder but does have good upside and tactical speed.
(11) Autumngirl is well bred and I think we can see the best of her this prep. She will want further as she gets into the prep but the trial was good and that form has been franked. Reckon she can run well, even from the bad gate.
Currie flying and (15) Silk Sonic toyed with them at first start for the new stable. Can only improve off that run and they find a good race to take the next step in.
Selections:
(11) Autumngirl
(15) Silk Sonic
(6) Now Is The Hour
(1) Adranos
Suggested Bet: E/W (11) Autumngirl at the $16
Race 3
They smashed (1) First Mission at the first run for the new stable. The money just kept coming, sat on speed and ran away. Hard to knock and no reason it doesn’t win again. Takes the 3kg claim to help out.
(2) Better Be Nordy’s form reads like binary code, good luck.
(8) Dream Smart draws poorly but the fresh run was OK and can strip fitter 2nd up. Watch the market.
(13) She Ours was just a run fresh but form last prep good enough to be around the money somewhere.
Selections:
(1) First Mission
(8) Dream Smart
(13) She Ours
Suggested Bet: Win (1) First Mission
Race 4
I understand (5) Voracious got the cash last start but think the Gollan factor has him under the right odds here. Don’t feel he has that much upside myself.
(6) Capital Asset is new to Qld and won at first start for the new stable. Thought that win was as good as the fav’s and this is 4x the price.
There’s 2-3 (7) Larrikin Rogues, so who knows which one turns up. The good one has enough ability to trouble these.
(9) Chief Witness is in the hot stable and running well. Thought he was there to win last start and just peaked late. This is no harder and winning hope.
(13) Downey can be forgiven the last run and been freshened. When the Curries are flying you simply promote every horse, no different here with no weight on the back.
Selections:
(6) Capital Asset
(9) Chief Witness
(5) Voracious
(13) Downey
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (6) Capital Asset
Race 5
Gollan with a strong team here. Liked the win of (8) Bossed Up last start. He is as honest as they come and has run best L400-200-home splits his last two runs. Peaks fitness wise and can win again.
Class runner is (1) Belegato. Ran well in good races earlier in the year and forgive the G3 flop in Melbourne. Comes here off a trial win and is the one they all have to beat.
(6) Cosmo Centaurus promised to be a good one but last prep was off. Returned a winner and might see the best of him this time in work. Up in class but can run well.
Matt Smith brings (11) Lyles who has won or placed in 5 of 6. Good support as soon as markets opened and he looks a big strong type who will take some catching.
Selections:
(8) Bossed Up
(11) Lyles
(1) Belegato
(6) Cosmo Centaurus
Suggested Bet: Small e/w Bossed Up at $8
Race 6
Have liked what (5) Canberra Legend has done since changing stables. 2nd beaten a lip in Toowoomba and then 2nd best L600-400-200m over this track/trip last start. Tactically versatile and can win if he hold this form.
(6) Ludovisi beat that horse two runs back and midfield last start at Doomben. Peaks 4th up but would like a drop of rain.
(3) Naval Seal has come back well. Nice win fresh and backed it up with a solid run behind the in form Keitel. Fitter 3rd up and should feature again somewhere here.
(9) Victory Flame, (8) Cavalry Man and (12) Sun Worshipper could all win without surprising.
Selections:
(5) Canberra Legend
(3) Naval Seal
(9) Victory Flame
(6) Ludovisi
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (5) Canberra Legend
Race 7
Full disclosure, have a share in (6) Another Cashie here. He’s a full to Shangri La Spring and a half to Profit. We have time for him but this is a fair step up from a Grafton maiden. Gate 9 doesn’t help his cause but he can run well.
The class is (1) Grafterburners and he should be the best of the day if they put up $2.50. More likely odds-on. 3rd in a G2 last prep and finished prep midfield in a G1. Take the claim here to get in well and they just need to stay on all fours to win probably. Opening $4+ is a surprise.
(3) Royal Mover is just a good, honest horse that will always get owners a cheque in the right races. Going well enough so why not go around again in a race you can box seat.
(8) Little Fella ran over the top of that horse last start and was running right away. Dominant win and in well off a city win. He looks like a very good one on the way up and will give this a shake.
(10) Ave Cantare was a strong on pace win on debut. Harder here but has obvious upside.
Selections:
(1) Grafterburners
(8) Little Fella
(6) Another Cashie
(3) Royal Mover
Suggested Bet: Win Grafterburners $4
Race 8
Huge fan of (16) Margot’s Deel and she has a good future. Massive concern with her being entered and accepted in multiple races lately and scratched about 4 times. She wins if right but I have no idea why they keep pulling her out.
(2) Noble Conqueror has only won 3 of 32 and that’s always a concern. Has been in very good form lately though and can be strong late here. No luck two back and then last start was great but just beaten by a good one. Could be his day and double figures is nice.
(3) Perfect Play was good in the same race but beaten fair and square.
(4) Rhuvaal also in that race, seemed like something happened on the corner and then checked again at the 200m. They take a claim to meet those better at the weights and I think he’s a real winning chance on the form before that.
(5) Rock Hard Love a bit plain last start but has ability and can forgive one run.
Selections:
(4) Rhuvaal
(2) Noble Conqueror
(16) Margot’s Deel
(5) Rock Hard Love
Suggested Bets: Split bets (4) Rhuvaal and (2) Noble Conqueror
Race 9
I have some serious trust issues with a lot of these.
(2) Kronenbourg was beaten a lap last start but had a poor recovery. Have to forgive one run. Was a winner before that, has won a trial leading into this, likes the track and $20 seems a big over-reaction to that one run.
Toppy (1) Miss Joelene is a beauty. Genuine blacktype mare in a good stable. Always hard with mares spotting the boys a lot of weight though.
(11) Sergeant Major is a good horse to bring north. 1400m is his very limit but with just 52kg and in a weaker race than he is used to I think he’s a live chance. Best suited if they take a sit and leave him for the last shot.
(12) Anemacore, (3) He’s Heaven, (4) Navyonthehighway, (7) Viminele all have multiple personalities and if they win, they can win without me (like they usually do).
Selections:
(2) Kronenbourg
(11) Sergeant Major
(1) Miss Joelene
(12) Anemacore
Suggested Bets: Kronenbourg if the $20 holds up.
Race 10
Big field, decent speed and they should all get their chance.
Hard to be keen on (14) Naval Trader as he has run a heap of placings in recent times without winning. Has won or placed in 6 of 9 at the track so he has to go in numbers somewhere.
(2) Boomtown Boss is a lightly raced one on the way up for Gollan. Won a Listed race last prep and every chance he comes back a better horse this time in. Reckon they’d have a GF target later in prep and has 60kg here but don’t write him off.
I can’t catch (1) Epic Proportions but this is another race he can go close in. Jumps 9.5kg which isn’t ideal.
(17) Dirty Dancing is a little underrated and the stable have found some form.
Selections:
(2) Boomtown Boss
(14) Naval Trader
(1) Epic Proportions
(17) Dirty Dancing
Suggested Bets: No bet
