Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 #3 Last Command – Strong through the line last start and looks well placed here.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 8m
- Likely to be a firm track with high temperatures all week.
- Don’t mind the rail out but they could run fast times and not be that easy to make ground from the back.
Stats that matter:
- Victorious Vlad! Vlad Duric is back off a long break, has ridden 3 of his first 15 to win with a ROI +20%
- Matt Dunn stable are striking at 26% from their last 50 runners and ROI +32%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
I wouldn’t say (4) Enjector was strong late last start but has shown as much ability as anything else. Rock hard fit now and looks well placed by a good stable.
(6) Tacitly looks to be one who should be strong late. The last couple of runs have both had merit and ready to show best now. By the super sire Wootton Basset and can get the chocolates here. Crazy price $1.55 though.
Can’t really find anything positive about the rest of them and they look the winning chances.
Selections:
(6) Tacitly
(4) Enjector
Suggested Bet: No bet at the prices.
Race 2:
A lot of the horses on debut have trialled well but I just like to go with the race experience.
(10) Ceretti is in the leading yard and has been OK in a couple of runs. Beaten by a good one fresh but fitter now and it was a tidy effort. Looks hard to beat here.
(11) Snitzstream hadn’t shown a lot but the return run was strong. Sat on speed and was in for the fight. Draws to get a good run on speed again here and looks a leading chance.
(3) Hansaglory, (4) Over Spray and (9) Peragrina Pearl have all trialled well and follow any market support for them.
Selections:
(10) Ceretti
(11) Snipstream
(9) Peragrina Pearl
(3) Hansaglory
(4) Over Spray
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (10) Ceretti
Race 3:
Like the fact (7) Boss Mode has had the initial prep. The latest trial was very good and Maloney rides for Gollan. Would love to see support but looks a leading hope here.
(9) Crypto Miss has placed in 3 of 5 and bumped into some handy horses in those races. Under minimal pressure in recent trial and could be a stronger horse this time in work. Thompson is a key booking and needs a good steer from the gate.
Always hard to win on debut but (10) Mercatello is in the right stable. Led at the most recent trial, was pushed out but held them all at bay in good style.
Selections:
(9) Crypto Miss
(7) Boss Mode
(10) Mercatello
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(2) Nails Murphy coming out has weakened this, looked the winner.
Don’t really trust (4) I’m Heroic these days but he has shown ability at times. Was good first-up and then poor last start. This is easier and fitter now 3rd up.
(6) More Trouble is always a chance around this grade. Had good support last start, hit the line well but found one better like he usually does. Just 3 wins from the 20 starts.
Gee, (9) Sir Beveridge was impressive at Ipswich last start. This is harder but have to respect off such a dominant win.
Selections:
(6) More Trouble
(4) I’m Heroic
(9) Sir Beveridge
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
Might be more competitive than people think. Even money fave scratched and it looked winner too.
(3) Air We Go was a pass mark last start but did get every chance. Like Thompson staying on top and might be one for exotics.
(4) Bundella loomed to win last start but was a little weak the last 150m. Back in trip and 3kg claim might help.
(11) Oohlalouvre is one I have always liked but thought it would be in better grade by now. More than up to these with some luck in running.
Selections:
(11) Oohlalouvre
(3) Air We Go
(4) Bundella
Suggested Bet: No bet now winner scratched.
Race 6:
(6) Carravilla is in the hot stable and has won the first two runs back this prep. From gate 4, should map right on the speed and be the one they have to run down.
(3) Last Command was beaten a nose by Carravilla last start and meets it 1.5kg better off this time. Big fan of the apprentice on top and comes here ready to peak fitness-wise.
Just another race that scratchings have weakened.
Selections:
(3) Last Command
(6) Carravilla
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Last Command
Race 7:
Looked a good race but scratchings have made it plain now.
(8) First Empire is a nice 3 year old with upside. Both runs this prep have been good and the inside draw can be a help here. Bit short in the market but will be hard to beat.
(12) Diva Las Vegas was accepted for a race at the coast last week and scratched for this. Has needed the racing off a long break and set to peak here 4th up from a good gate.
(13) Poutchek might be next best but only goes in with those leading chances scratching.
Selections:
(8) First Empire
(12) Diva Las Vegas
(13) Poutchek
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
Well, (1) Hot Majesty is the proven horse and looks the one to beat. He has been well supported at the two Qld runs without winning. No excuses last start but this looks a little easier than the quinella that day.
(5) Sexy Time is another that just comes out of a low Maiden but was a 3.5L winner. Maloney sticks for Gollan and might be a nice stayer in the making this one.
Another for exotics can be (2) Prochester for the Bruce stable who will stay better than most.
Selections:
(5) Sexy Time
(1) Hot Majesty
Suggested Bets: Quinella 1,5
