Summary of Best Bets:
Race 7 #4 War King – Runs in Qld have been very good and looks well placed by the leading stable.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2m
- Just an average meeting as you’d expect at this time of the year.
- A couple of nice up-and-comers engaged that I am keen to see today and into their preps.
Stats that matter:
- Martin Harley has had a good start to the season striking at 19.5% from 118 rides and a positive ROI 10%
- Apprentice Jai Williams has ridden 11 winners from 50 rides and ROI of 16.8%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
I will lean the way of the raced brigade in these types of races nearly every time.
(5) I’lltellyouanytime has shown ability and rock hard fit now. Peeled off the back of the leaders and very good last start to be runner up behind a nice winner. Good enough through the line to think 1200m is OK.
(6) Nifty’s Treasure was also good through the line and ran 3rd in the same race. Out in trip is a positive and the 3kg claim won’t hurt.
Of the horses on debut I would lean the way of the ones that trialled in the bush. (4) Satomi who looks like he will need more ground in time and (3) Lonesome Star who won a trial at Warwick.
Selections:
(5) I’lltellyouanytime
(6) Nifty’s Treasure
(4) Satomi
Suggested Bet: Win (5) I’lltellyouanytime
Race 2:
A few nice horses on the way up and this is one of the more interesting races of the day.
Earn To Burn scraching opens this right up.
(9) Larado would have won an easier race at the midweeks but scratched for this. Was drawn wide there and gets the inside draw here. In a good stable, has a turn of foot and can make the jump from the Class 1 win last start.
(11) Spiethtacular has the Yoyo Yeezy form and gets the claim to carry just 54.5kg. Will give a sight and hard to run down. Stablemate (10) Savagery Vibe was awful last start but keep an eye on the market with it as it has ability.
(12) Metalcraft and (2) Concession might be the value in exotics.
Selections:
(9) Larado
(11) Spiethtacular
(10 Savagery Vibe
(12) Metalcraft
Suggested Bet: Win (9) Larado
Race 3:
Not too sure what to make of (2) Brindavan if I’m being honest. Beat a very average bunch of animals last start. It was only 2nd up and there is a chance he improves lengths off that run. If he does, he can win again.
(7) Noble Conqueror was in that race and hard to see him turning the tables.
(8) Akkadian Emperor was a dead set barrier trial fresh over the mile. Run was better than it looked and 2nd best L200m of the race. Everything says he will need another run or two but I feel he can surprise a few here.
Selections:
(2) Brindavan
(8) Akkadian Emperor
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Brindavan if $2.50+
Race 4:
Gee, I do not like this race at all. Most of them are just weak animals that don’t get through the line.
(1) Victoria Road has been getting lapped in Sydney but this is a huge drop in grade. Back to this trip is fine, in a great yard and takes a 3kg claim. Will not get a better chance to win.
(4) Edited By was pretty good through the line in the Ballina Cup. Drops from 62kg there to 53.5kg here. Think he is well placed in this race and looks hard to beat.
(5) Zoology was a pass mark at Ballina.
(7) Mickey’s Medal and (8) Redford are some hope with light weights and on previous form.
Selections:
(4) Edited By
(1) Victoria Road
(7) Mickey’s Medal
(5) Zoology
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Edited By and just cover bet with (1) Victoria Road
Race 5:
Unlucky for some of these to bump into (2) Sunrays at this time of year. She is a star but might be vulnerable with just one run in around 9 months. Clicked up in a recent trial but it was still decent. She is the one they have to beat.
(3) Earn To Burn looks a nice, big, strong horse with good upside. The gate is a big advantage for him as he liked to find a rhythm and is strong at the end of this trip. Dominant late fresh in a big win. This is harder but can win.
(4) Get Ready Lass had been very good before the last start and happy to forgive that. Needs a good ride early from the gate but has ability.
Selections:
(2) Sunrays
(3) Earn To Burn
(4) Get Ready Lass
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Sunrays
Race 6:
Ramp It Up was the best of the day and comes out…
The market has liked (6) Rezone since joining Currie and he is 2/2 for them. Both wins on the big Sunny Coast track so this should suit too. Claim is a help, as is the gate.
(4) Eclair Awesome is rock hard fit 4th up. Consistent and maps on speed. Right in this after scratchings.
The other winning chance is (14) La Rosetta. She is also 2/2 since joining Edmonds on the coast. Dominant display over this trip last start and she is well and truly on the way up.
Selections:
(6) Rezone
(4) Eclair Awesome
(14) La Rosetta
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4,6,14
Race 7:
(2) North Pole is a little underrated and the win was very good last start, albeit at Beaudesert. Like Thompson and gate 4 but the big weight to 1600m on a big track is just a little query.
(3) Crash The Party is one of the best maidens in Qld. Two of her last three have been exceptional. Has a super turn of foot but hasn’t been able to get it done. The Millions run last start in the Guineas was enormous. A maiden filly with 58.5kg isn’t ideal though.
(4) War King has won a race and was 2nd in a decent CL1 last start and he gets 1kg off that filly. The Qld runs have been good. Has the nice on speed pattern and keeps trying. Rock hard fit and will look the winner for a long way.
(12) Madame Cody and (6) Kohler Kid only won Maidens last start but can keep improving.
Selections:
(4) War King
(3) Crash The Party
(2) North Pole
(6) Kohler Kid
(12) Madame Cody
Suggested Bet: Win (4) War King
Race 8:
Wanted to be all over (10) Red Defcon here but the outside draw does her no favours at all. Mixed form last prep but went around in some high quality races. Got too far back last start but attacked the line hard (best L600m of the meeting).
(6) Castillian doesn’t win out of turn but nearly always runs well. Recent trial was more than good enough, I’d love a drop of rain which won’t eventuate.
(2) Battlefield wins this on his best form. Don’t love the gate in a race without a lot of speed and that’s a concern. Stable are very good and the claim is a help.
Anything can win here and nothing would surprise.
Selections:
(10) Red Defcon
(2) Battlefield
(6) Castillian
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 9:
I have massive trust issues with most of these. They can really mix their form up, lots of times for seemingly no reason.
The toppy (1) Vodka Martini has a few positives here. Back to 1000m suits, 3kg claim helps and the inside draw is ideal. Wide and 1200m just has to be forgiven last start and can bounce back.
(5) He’s Heaven lacks upside and can throw in a shocker. Just feel with the freshen up and good draw, he could run a race at odds here.
(9) Wondereach comes out of better races in Sydney, that usually lines up well. This is a plain bunch of locals and looks well placed by a smart stable. Thompson on helps.
(2) Chakra Boy suited in this grade but wide gate for the 3kg girl isn’t a great set up.
(6) Holy Racket is rock hard fit and I wouldn’t mind them sitting midfield and having last crack.
Wish this wasn’t in the quaddie.
Selections:
(1) Vodka Martini
(9) Wondereach
(5) He’s Heaven
(6) Holy Racket
(2) Chakra Boy
Suggested Bets: Win (1) Vodka Martini $12 and smaller (9) Wondereach
Race 10:
Decent speed and a fair run race this should be.
(8) Gospel Girl has the big weight for a mare and apprentice can’t claim, never a big fan of that set up. She is an honest horse and in the Gollan camp. Form last prep was good and she likes this track (3:2:0:1). The trial was good under minimal pressure.
(11) True Amor was strong from the back two runs ago and then pushed forward from the wide gate and was excellent over the Millions carnival. Joins the Munce camp, draws to get the run of the race and every possible chance.
I have no idea why the owners keep swapping trainer with (3) Shihab. When they send him south he is rubbish. When he comes north he is a different horse and always a chance. He could be the fly in the ointment and goes in quaddies.
(1) Sir Carter is 2/2 this prep and nice win at the Millions. Big jock change here and looks harder.
Selections:
(11) True Amor
(8) Gospel Girl
(3) Shihab
Suggested Bets: No bet
