The Plan of Attack:
| Type | Race | No. | Horse | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | Race 10 | 4 | Globe | Maps for a soft lead. Super first up. |
| Next Best | Race 5 | 3 | Transatlantic | Progressive galloper who maps well and loves the 1400m. |
| Value Bet | Race 6 | 2 | Airman | Huge price at $8.50, have him marked fave. Small save on Star Patrol. |
| Best Roughie | Race 10 | 14 | Dashing Duchess | Trialled well. Good fresh last campaign. Huge price at 50/1. |
Track Talk:
- Rail back to the True having been out 10m at the most recent meeting, so plenty of clean ground back to the inside.
- Think middle-to-outside lanes advantaged in the straight.
The Stats That Matter:
- James McDonald has ridden 27 winners from his last 100 rides, albeit in line with market expectations, going at a PoT of –4%. He has a great book at Flemington.
- Damian Lane is going at a strike rate of 24% from his last 100 rides at a PoT of +13.4%.
- Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr are flying – 22 winners from their last 100 runners at a PoT of +15.1%.
Race 1
I know there was initial disappointment when (10) She’s An Artist was turned over as a $1.30 favourite in the Creswick, but even on the rating she produced there she beats this field. She couldn’t quite reel in Bridal Waltz, but that leader had a soft time, clocked some of the best late splits of the meeting and then won a Bletchingly at her next start. The form has stacked up beautifully: Duchess Zou, who finished third, bolted in at Flemington next start, while fourth-placed Fieldelo ran a narrow second in the Lightning Stakes. That is the standout reference leading into this. She’s An Artist has again trialled like a rocket, 1100m is ideal, and she looks a most promising mare who can account for this lot.
(18) Rich Dottie shapes as the danger. She ran very well behind Alabama Lass and Gallant Son at this track and trip in March and clearly handles the straight. Three trials leading in suggest she’s forward, and she has moved nicely in her latest couple. The wide draw is a positive.
(8) Tonkin has plenty of speed but the last 100m is the test. (6) Salsa Fellow has drawn well in gate 16, will be charging late, and has jumped out nicely leading in.
Selections:
(10) She’s An Artist
(18) Rich Dottie
(8) Tonkin
(6) Salsa Fellow
Suggested Bet: Loading up (10) She’s An Artist at $2.70. Smaller something on (18) Rich Dottie who appears the main danger.
Race 2
The slight query with (3) Legacy Bound is whether 1100m is a touch sharp. He profiles as a horse that will be even better over 1200m and beyond. That said, with the Coolmore as his spring target, this is a logical stepping stone. He’s got a lovely cruising speed and plenty of talent; both wins were dominant against handy opposition.
I’d give (5) McGaw a genuine chance to turn the tables on (2) Tycoon Star from their clash in the McNeil. McGaw was first up there and rolled along at a strong tempo, which left him vulnerable late. He was still holding the margin through the line and should strip fitter with natural improvement.
Really liked the maiden win of (9) Bedourie. The stable is airborne, and at $31 he looks the best roughie in the race.
Selections:
(3) Legacy Bound
(5) McGaw
(2) Tycoon Star
(9) Bedourie
Betting Suggestion: No bet.
Race 3
No doubt (1) Vinrock is the best-performed horse in the field, but I wasn’t thrilled with the way he laid in at Caulfield. It may have been a one-off, but at $3.30 I’d rather see him bounce back than dive in.
I like (12) Just Kick. She was probably ridden a touch more aggressively first-up than she’ll be here, but she stuck on well at Sandown over 1300m. The rise in trip looks perfect, and a genuine tempo will only help her. She’s still raw and learning, but there’s clear talent there.
(10) Fastoso should get a soft run in behind the speed, and his maiden win last start came in decent company. (8) Wise Inlaw will push forward and give himself every chance, and he’ll be in this for a long way.
Selections:
(12) Just Kick
(10) Fastoso
(8) Wise Inlaw
(1) Vinrock
Betting Suggestion: (12) Just Kick each-way
Race 4
(19) Biologics looks a serious filly. She put her rivals to the sword in the twinkling of an eye on debut at Pakenham. She has trialled up nicely this time in, is drawn ideally out wide on the track and her turn of foot should stand her in good stead down the straight.
Don’t think (7) Scenic Point went a yard in the wet first up, but there may have been another issue at play with the tongue tie immediately applied. She has jumped out well between runs and I think she’s all class. The knock is gate one, which looks horrific.
Loved the first up run of (2) My Gladiola. She has jumped out well between runs and drawn a perfect gate out in twenty to get back and swoop down the outside.
(18) Amping Lass was heavily backed/good on debut at Cranbourne last time in and has trialled well this campaign. She will run well at a big price.
Selections:
(19) Biologics
(7) Scenic Point
(2) My Gladiola
(18) Amping Lass
Betting Suggestion: If pressed, something small each-way (19) Biologics.
Race 5
Like (3) Transatlantic here. He was sent around $9 in the Stradbroke over the winter where forced to punch the breeze throughout, sticking on OK. He loves the 1400m, he has superior ratings to his rivals and he will get all the favours up near the speed – deserves to be a clear favourite for mine.
(11) Robrick is much better suited at Flemington than The Valley, where he resumed over 1200m and simply gave them too big a start before rattling late. Jump-outs suggest he has come back well this campaign and he looks over the odds at $21.
The Lindsay Park-trained (1) Rise At Dawn goes like a bomb fresh and jump-outs have been sound. He won the Listed Elms first up at this track and trip in the summer – it’s a track he clearly has a liking for. He makes his own luck up on speed, but may get softened up a touch with a bit of pace drawn underneath.
Selections:
(3) Transatlantic
(11) Robrick
(1) Rise At Dawn
(4) Café Millenium
Betting Suggestion: Keen (3) Transatlantic, could have a small something on (11) Robrick at big odds.
Race 6
(2) Airman beat Giga Kick and Bella Nipotina last spring and had issues at the end of a two-run campaign in the autumn. Trials have suggested he has come back in super order, and the fact he’s had three should ensure he’s cherry ripe for the 1200m fresh. He’s had a good win down the straight previously and J-Mac is only a plus!
If (5) Star Patrol could recapture his best then he’s the horse to beat here. He produced solid ratings in winning both this race and the Gilgai over the same course in the 2023 spring. Unfortunately, he has only managed three runs since and has disappointed. Tie-back surgery since he was last at the sports suggests they’ve got on top of an issue and trials were excellent. Lethal trainer-jockey combination!
(6) Givemethebeatboys trialled up well in the same heat as Airman. He looks set to improve in his second Australian campaign while (10) Media World has trialled up nicely too.
Working around the favourites: (4) Arkansaw Kid and (11) Royal Insignia who both look under the odds.
Selections:
(2) Airman
(5) Star Patrol
(6) Givemethebeatboys
(10) Media World
Betting Suggestion: Backing (2) Airman, smaller (5) Star Patrol.
Race 7
Speed probably comes from (3) Seyadaty Sadaty, (4) Revelare, (5) Antrim Coast and maybe (12) Bur Dubai can be handier. Maybe (13) Jabbawockeez with Yendall on out in trip also presses on. Tempo should be solid enough.
(8) Newlook was terrific at his Australian debut two back and then copped a check at a crucial stage/raced flat last time out. Third-up now, getting to 2500m, he should be ready to peak. The little query is dry ground as his best form in France is on rain-affected going, but he maps well and can run a big race.
(2) Post Impressionist was never a hope the way the race was run first-up here at Flemington (slow tempo early/dash home). His win in the 2024 Manion Cup is the best domestic rating anything in this race has produced. J-Mac jumping on is a plus, as is dry ground.
(7) Mormona was terrific behind (4) Revelare at Caulfield last start and if you go off that alone, you’d think the 2500m suits the former more than the latter. He gets a little weight swing on the favourite and has won at this track over 2800.
Revelare is still on the up and he did a good job to win second-up. He makes his own luck up near the speed and should prove really hard to beat. The knock for mine is he’s too short at $2.90.
Selections:
(8) Newlook
(2) Post Impressionist
(7) Mormona
(4) Revelare
Suggested Bet: Could have something small on (8) Newlook and (2) Post Impressionist.
Race 8
The trick in this year’s Makybe Diva Stakes is there’s no speed! Which I wrote about earlier in the week.
It leaves (1) Mr Brightside to lead the race and the other likely ‘known’ is that (3) Antino will take off at some early stage in the race.
Both (5) Via Sistina and (6) Aeliana were afforded beautiful runs through the field when they fanned first-up in the Winx Stakes.
Via Sistina was beaten in this race last year but that was on heavy ground, different scenario on firmer footing. She is a superstar – simple – and she has shown she can sprint quickly if the race does turn into a slowly-run, tactical affair.
Her stablemate, Aeliana is progressive. Her run first up was clearly the equal, if not better, than Via Sistina – albeit she may have been more advantaged in the heavy ground. The query for both, and frankly every horse outside Mr B, is the likely muddling tempo.
Blake Shinn is some chance to take this race by the scruff of the neck. He has established a successful pattern of ‘taking off early’ on Antino; a tactic that has been used to good effect. He will drop out early and no doubt look to move into the race between the 800-600m marks and if he could do so with a full head of steam it may well catch the others napping. Thought his run in the Memsie was solid enough fresh.
Mr Brightside is just a marvel. He trialled like he’d benefit greatly from his Memsie run, but he was terrific there fresh. He controls the tempo and Willo will give them something to catch.
(2) Tom Kitten has a lethal turn of foot, which could prove vital in a tactical affair.
Selections:
(3) Antino
(5) Via Sistina
(6) Aeliana
(2) Tom Kitten
Betting Suggestion: Happy to watch and enjoy what is a cracking race.
Race 9
Terrific win fresh from (3) Lazzura in the Show Country. Heavy to Good track here but don’t think that’s a knock. She brings genuine mares Group 1 form to the race and gets a solid tempo to suit. I think she has to be the starting point in the race.
(7) On Display trialled very well leading into the campaign and was totally dominant first-up at Caulfield. She’s still on the improve, the knock being gate one looks sticky for a mare who will drift back.
1400m is (11) Splash Back’s go and like the wide draw for her. She will be strong late while (10) Oh Too Good is going to have a tactical edge over those mentioned above; her trials have been fair but the map is kind.
Selections:
(3) Lazzura
(10) Oh Too Good
(7) On Display
(11) Splash Back
Betting Suggestion: No bet.
Race 10
(4) Globe and (19) Ziryab (if it gets a run) likely lead here.
This is a brilliant setup for Globe. He was terrific up on a strong tempo first-up at The Valley, sticking on resolutely behind (13) Hard To Cross who had fitness and a cold drop on him. Mark Zahra can control proceedings from the front and provided it’s no disadvantage to be leading on Saturday then this bloke should prove awfully hard to beat.
The best bolter on the card is (14) Dashing Duchess. She has trialled well for this, having three hit-outs which should have her in good shape for the 1700m fresh. She ran a bottler first-up over a mile at Caulfield last campaign and the 1700m is more suitable.
Selections:
(4) Globe
(14) Dashing Duchess
(15) Cadmus
(17) Plymouth
Betting Suggestion: Backing (4) Globe with something small on (14) Dashing Duchess who is massive odds at 50/1.
