Betsy’s Set: Flemington

Race 1

Decent sized field of babies rocking and rolling down the straight.

(7) Angelic Rise has speed to burn. She ran blistering time in a recent Caulfield jump-out, leading from the get-go, and comfortably putting a rival on her margins. She does have a touch of the ‘speed squibs’ about her, but her work past the post in the trial was excellent. Importantly, the hot hand of Mark Zahra has been with her in both lead-up trials and rides her on raceday.

(9) Calamari Ring is both delicious and also a terrific chance on debut. She is the opposite of Angelic Rise in that I’d expect her to balance up early and find the line. Lovely jump-out at Cranbourne on October 20.

(2) Bohemian Rhapsody has had the benefit of three jump-outs leading into his debut. Liked they way he poked up on the fence in a recent bit of work at Caulfield.

(6) Streisand looked comfortable down the straight on debut when running second. This does seem a stronger race but the pole draw is valuable in these 2yo races and she will be most competitive.

(4) Nasty was slow out in his first jump-out at Pakenham but pinged the lids much better in a recent Caulfield trial. Was ridden out to get the better of Bohemian Rhapsody there and thought that horse worked better. However, the Hayes boys are on fire with these 2yos and it’s not always the market elect that gets the job done.

If Angelic Rise can run out the 1000m she’s the horse to beat, but think Calamari Ring will be strong late.

Selections:
(7) Angelic Rise
(9) Calamari Ring
(2) Bohemian Rhapsody
(6) Streisand

Suggested bet: If betting, I’d be Angelic Rise, smaller Calamari ring, and winning on both.

Race 2

Doesn’t look huge speed. (11) Nation’s Call and (9) Reset The Jazz look the likely 1-2 in run. (3) Vega Magnifico and (15) Mary Eliza next in line. (12) Angland is the one that may inject some more speed into the race – slightly sticky map.

(2) Sabaj was super first up in the Silver Eagle. He should’ve finished much closer there, having no luck behind Linebacker. Sharp step up in trip, map and the prospect of a wet track are all concerns, but he’s a talent. Can’t get him as short as the market.

(11) Nation’s Call had plenty of favours at The Valley last start but should only improve third-up off that win. He was luckless first up and I think he’s come back in really good order. Key to him here is a good map – he can control from the front. Any rain will only be a positive.

(9) Reset The Jazz has been given a short spell/let-up and had two strong jump-outs between runs to prepare for this. He’s a tough, on-speed galloper who should be in it a long way.

(13) He’ll Rip is drawn out and will get back, but he had little luck behind Persian Spirit on Tuesday and if he backs up should be most competitive.

(8) Jenni’s Meadow is going to get a fair way back but loved her run first up for the Walker stable, hitting the line strongly at Caulfield. Step to a mile suits.

Selections:
(11) Nation’s Call
(2) Sabaj
(9) Reset The Jazz
(13) He’ll Rip

Suggested bet: Nation’s Call E/W

Race 3

Peter Snowden has an excellent hand with (3) King Of Roseau and (6) Need Some Luck. Both have trialled well up in Sydney leading into this and both will handle the sting out of the ground. Need Some Luck flies fresh and he’s drawn well in the middle of the line – right in the mix. Think King Of Roseau is a strong winning hope, too. His Aurie’s Star win was excellent and loved the way he worked to the line from a mile back in a recent trial.

The toppy, (1) Front Page ran a narrow second in this race last year coming through the Kosciuszko and follows the same pattern again. His track stats (7-1-1-0) are probably a touch misleading as a number of those runs have been in Group 1 features, and he’s not up to that level. Resumed in that Kosciuszko where he sat outside a hot tempo in a race dominated by the swoopers, so think the run was better than it looked.

(15) Big Swinger has enormous upside and there’s no doubt he can win. That said, whilst visually a very good win, he beat a moderate field at Caulfield back in May and this is much, much stronger. His win prior to that was in a BM64 at Pakenham. He can measure up to this class, for sure, but hard to get him as short as the market.

Selections:
(6) Need Some Luck
(3) King Of Roseau
(15) Big Swinger
(1) Front Page

Suggested bet: Backing Need Some Luck and King Of Roseau

Race 4

Good speed with (6) Sea What I See and (1) Alalcance the two likely leaders. (5) She’s A Hustler and (3) Jennilala next in line.

A lot of these come through the Tesio Stakes, won by She’s A Hustler.

Sea What I See gets a 6kg turnaround on She’s A Hustler for a 1.25L defeat there at The Valley. She has come back well this time in after having an ‘off prep’ last campaign, which I think can see that gap between them narrow, although She’s A Hustler was five weeks between runs. Think She’s a Hustler has more upside, but don’t think there’s as much between the pair as the market suggests.

There were a couple of other good runs in the race.

Jennilala was held up at a crucial stage down the side, she shouldn’t have the same traffic issues here settling a touch handier and in a race that should spread out with the genuine tempo. Think she runs well here.

The horse out of that Tesio at The Valley that seems a huge price is (13) Sunset Park. She’s not as well in at the weights as a couple of others here, but she got clear far too late at The Valley and should’ve finished much closer to She’s A Hustler. Think she can land 1×1 with a half-decent ride early and from there she can run a race at a big price.

(2) Real Class brings a different formline to the race. She was one of the best of the backmarkers in the Melbourne Storm Mile at Randwick two back and then hit the line strongly against the boys here on Tuesday. The strong tempo should suit and she has won on a short back-up (7 days) stepping to 2000m in the past.

Selections:
(13) Sunset Park
(2) Real Class
(5) She’s A Hustler
(6) Sea What I See

Suggested bet: Having something on both Sunset Park and Real Class at odds.

Race 5

Pretty limited race.

(1) Birdman was terrific in the Caulfield Cup and we’ve seen that form stand up in the Melbourne Cup. He loves the sting out of the ground so should get conditions to suit on Saturday and whilst he rises in weight, this is a significant class drop.

(2) Berkeley Square would love the rain to come. He was strong late in the Geelong Cup, where it wasn’t easy to make ground. His run in the Bart Cummings ties in favourably with some of the better staying form of the spring. Maps for an economical run and can figure in the finish.

(3) Sayedaty Sadaty gets a really nice run up on speed and that should help him figure in the finish. Probably one that doesn’t want the rain.

Selections:
(1) Birdman
(2) Berkeley Square
(3) Sayedaty Sadaty

Suggested bet: Can get $5.50 Birdman and $7.50 Berkeley Square – happy to back both of them for a good result.

Race 6

Distinct lack of speed for a 1200m Group 1. (5) Tropicus leads for fun. Maybe (9) Flying for Fun and (4) Libertad next. This has the potential to turn into a sit and sprint.

A wet track won’t worry (1) Giga Kick. Some of his best ratings have been on rain-affected going, including a second on a bog track at Randwick in the TJ Smith. He didn’t beat a vintage field first up in the Schillaci under WFA conditions, so this is a much stiffer test, but he should be significantly fitter by the same token.

(6) Joliestar’s one run down the straight was in the Newmarket, which netted her a decisive win. Her victory in the Shorts was outstanding, before finishing alongside subsequent winner Jimmysstar in a hot Everest. Should settle a pair in front of Giga Kick and Tentyris, which gives her some edge.

(10) Tentyris is untapped. His win in the Coolmore was electric. Fast speed suited, yes, but it’s hard to be anything but wowed by the win. He belted his rivals and posted a big rating in the process. Challenge here might be getting into a slowly run race after two genuine tempos his past couple of runs. The weather might prove the other foil, with Sam Freedman suggesting he’d be scratched from a heavy deck.

(7) Magic Time has the glue on, shoes off here and she faces the prospect of striking a preferred wet deck (heavy) for the first time since her All Aged Stakes win back in 2024. She also outsprinted Joliestar in a slowly run Expressway back in Febuary, a similar sort of race shape to what she will encounter here. Don’t think she’s out of it for the master trainer, Grahame Begg.

(1) Giga Kick
(7) Magic Time
(6) Joliestar
(10) Tentyris

Suggested bet: Could have something Giga Kick/Magic Time on a wet deck. Conditions vital.

Race 7

This is pretty straightforward with (7) Pride Of Jenni setting a strong tempo. Matt Laurie has said he wants (9) Treasurethe Moment within striking distance and don’t think Willo will be letting her out of his sights on (1) Mr Brightside.

Can’t see this field letting her get 8L in front at the 800m mark like they did last weekend, if they do it’s just complete madness.

(2) Ceolwulf gets his ideal setup. Genuine tempo at WFA and I think he can repeat the dose of the King Charles win. Potentially a few of his rivals are better in complete slop – so that’s a small knock – but he will be charging at them late.

Pride of Jenni used to have the wood on Mr Brightside but that has swung back in Mr B’s favour. He was brave in the King Charles and has been racing typically well all campaign. Can’t see Willo losing sight of PoJ and I can definitely see him beating her home, he might just have to watch our for Ceolwulf in the rearview mirror.

Pride of Jenni went too slow in the King Charles two back when well beaten by both Ceolwulf, Mr Brightside and Pericles. She was back to her brilliant best, freerolling well above standard when bolting in last Saturday’s Empire Rose. Having the southerly at her back is an advantage, it’s the same setup she had in 2023 when she won her first Empire Rose, before she backed up a week later and beat Mr Brightside in this very race. I simply can’t see them letting her have too long a ‘loose lead’ here, in which case I think she’s vulnerable late. But, that was a huge win last weekend and she has to be respected.

Treasurethe Moment drops back to a mile, but on her Cox Plate run it would be hard to suggest that won’t suit. Even if she produced a career peak mile rating she would need to go to another level assuming her key rivals are near their best – not saying that’s impossible, but she’s had an interrupted preparation and it would be a phenomenal training performance.

(2) Ceolwulf
(1) Mr Brightside
(7) Pride Of Jenni
(9) Treasurethe Moment

Suggested bet: Having something on Ceolwulf

Race 8

Slightly sticky draw for (10) Via Sistina but assuming the rain comes then it could even be a positive by race eight on day four of the Carnival. This isn’t the strongest edition of this race, a race she won last year, and despite not being quite at her best this campaign she absolutely deserves to be favourite. And, all things being equal, she will be winning this.

(1) Tom Kitten had an interrupted start to his campaign but that may actually work in his favour here. He was OK late in the King Charles and his run behind Via Sistina at 2000m in the Queen Elizabeth in the autumn has him in the game.

(6) Pier is still on the up and it looks like 2000m will suit now. Gets a lovely run in the race for Ethan Brown and has shown an ability to handle heavy tracks in the past.

(7) Golden Path loves the sting out and may be able to give a sight up on speed.

(10) Via Sistina
(1) Tom Kitten
(6) Pier
(7) Golden Path

Suggested bet: Stand and cheer a great mare.

Race 9

The last of 37, and what a week it has been.

Suspect they will come right to the outside here.

Not ideally drawn, but think (10) Balastier will lead them up here and he will be hard to run down. He’s airborne since joining the Danny O’Brien stable, and any rain will only enhance his chances. Granted he’s one of the best trial horses I’ve seen, but his straight track jump-out vs Beadman, Beiwacht et al was electric.

(6) Stoli Bolli is racing so consistently and drops back in grade here. Drawn the right side of the track and handles sting out of the ground. Some might say he’s a ‘non-winner’ but he drew the wrong side of the track here two back, and potentially three back, and only needed another bound or two on a leader’s deck at Geelong last time out. Draws ideally here and should be in the finish.

(11) Sweethearted is well drawn out in gate fifteen. She trialled really nicely but may have just peaked on her run first up at Caulfield. She ran very well in the Moomba Plate this track and trip back in March and with clean air she should divebomb at them late.

(10) Balastier
(6) Stoli Bolli
(11) Sweethearted
(9) Yaldi

Suggested bet: Level staking Balastier and Stoli Bolli, so have the former going for a better result.