Summary of best bets:
Best roughie: Race 2 No.10 Amawasha
Two bet play: Race 4 Backing No.8 Ambassadorial/No.14 Yes I Know
Two bet play: Race 7 Backing No.4 Red Galaxy and No.6 Dirty Grin
Best bet: Race 8 No.2 Saint George
Turf talk:
- Rail out 9m after being out 6m last weekend.
- Key factor could be Southeasterly wind forecast to be 25-40km/h. That’s a wind that assists horses on speed in circle races. No disadvantage to be on speed in straight races, either.
Race 1
Doesn’t look an overly strong 2yo race.
The toppy (1) Big Sky has been well backed and its easy to see why. He bolted in his latest jump-out, running good time on the morning. He had jumped-out nicely prior, too. The little knock is he’s still very green so there’s a chance he could get lost down the straight, but that’s the case for all of these.
(6) Mirador won her latest jump-out comfortably and she was saved from a race at Seymour in preference for this. The stable are brilliant with their 2yos – she will run well.
(4) Isle Of Mona was good in her latest jump-out, suggesting nice talent.
Uninspiring start to the card but think if Big Sky does everything right, he’s the horse to beat.
Selections:
(1) Big Sky
(6) Mirador
(4) Isle Of Mona
(2) Boridi
Suggested bet: Happy to look on.
Race 2
This is as even a race as you will find.
Five horses who finished within 1.3L of one another in a similar race at Geelong again resume battle while there’s a few horses on the back-up from moderately run races here at Flemington last week.
Suspect speed comes from (2) Eagle Angel, (6) Tarvue and (8) Hot Too Go.
I give one of the roughies, (10) Amawasha, a chance here. He comes through that key Geelong race and 100m past the post he was several lengths in front of the pack, having settle back off a moderate tempo. His last two runs in isolation have been excellent – he won a handy form race at Mornington the start prior. Given he was on the minimum with his 59 rating at Geelong last start he’s not well in at the weights vs key rivals, but he’s also $41 – which seems absurd!
Think (6) Tarvue has upside. She’s rapidly up in trip on the seven day back-up, but she’s a winner at 2450m in the past and she should be at peak fitness fifth-up. Rolls forward and will give a sight on speed.
(8) Hot Too Go gets a huge weight swing on (7) Leonchroi for not being beaten far at Geelong. Had race shape in favour but probably gets a soft enough run again for promising apprentice Jackson Radley. Leonchroi is still on the up and no reason to think he won’t be even better in a sightly stronger run 2500m race.
(3) Politely Dun has to be a hope and the race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(10) Amawasha
(6) Tarvue
(8) Hot Too Go
(7) Leonchroi
Suggested bet: Having something small EW on Amawasha at $41/Tarvue at $6
Race 3
What an appalling race.
Originally didn’t mind Gold Chariot but he has been scratched.
The knock on (1) Wrigley Field is he’s going to spot them a start but think he’s going very well. Held up at a crucial stage at Sandown last time out and good fresh over 1400m the start prior. 2000m now looks perfect and the long straight at Flemington will suit.
(5) Johnich looks over the odds. Had no luck off a little freshen at Mornington. Back to 2000m ideal. Maps nicely.
(3) Our Chief backs up after running OK here last week. Had every possible chance behind Flying Done but maybe looking for 2000m. Short enough at $2.60.
Selections:
(1) Wrigley Field
(5) Johnich
(3) Our Chief
(8) Helioson
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 4
Good speed. (1) Chakado and (8) Ambassadorial setting the tempo.
(14) Yes I Know gave (2) Fiorenot a cart into the race at this track and trip last time out and now gets a 2.5kg weight swing, also gets blinkers for the first time. He should get a lovely run in the race from gate two and think he can turn the tables on his key rival from last time out. The rating they produced there looks the pre-eminent form for this.
(8) Ambassadorial was 69 days between runs in that same Flemington race and did a good job given the hot tempo. He has had a jump-out between runs and should strip notably fitter. Sits on speed, which could be an edge with the south-easterly wind forecast.
(2) Fiorenot is a talent. Sticky gate, but can overcome the draw.
(1) Chakado is going poorly but if he can bounce back to something like his best would give a good sight on speed at huge odds.
Selections:
(14) Yes I Know
(8) Ambassadorial
(2) Fiorenot
(1) Chakado
Suggested bet: Backing Yes I Know, something smaller on Ambassadorial.
Race 5
Think there’s two key hopes: (2) Out Of Square and (6) Celerity.
(2) Out Of Square had no hope the way the race was run at Geelong last time out but worked to the line well enough in restricted room. She was dynamic first-up at Morphettville and think her sharp turn of foot is ideally suited to straight track racing.
(6) Celerity was dominant at her first straight track outing last time out. She ran good time in belting her rivals, the challenge now being stretching that out to 1100m. But, she gets to control things here with little other speed in the race and has a little assistance from the forecast wind. Clear horse to beat, but also well enough found.
(5) Vain Champagne will spot them a start but be strong late.
(4) Egerton probably drawn well out in nine, good win last start.
Selections:
(2) Out Of Square
(6) Celerity
(5) Vain Champagne
(4) Egerton
Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Out Of Square. Quinella 2,6.
Race 6
(3) Reset The Jazz looks well over the odds at $7. He was five weeks between runs in the Coastal Classic last time out setting a strong tempo – 4.5L above standard – before fighting on gamely to run third. That was arguably stronger than what he meets on Saturday, he’s only 14 days between runs now and the little drop back to a mile is in his favour. He can either lead and look to control or allow (7) Mixxit to cross and get a trail – either way he’s going to prove hard to beat.
Will continue to make a case for (4) Merrigold. She’s going well, this looks a suitable race for her.
Not sure why there’s as much between (5) Somewhere ($3.40) and (6) Make It Sweet ($10) in the market. Make It Sweet probably beats Somewhere with even luck last time out and while there’s a weight swing in the former’s favour the latter gets a senior jockey up.
(2) Harry’s Yacht has to be some risk out to a mile. Still races ungenerously and was beautifully rated to win at 1400m last start. Can win, but short enough at $3.
Selections:
(3) Reset The Jazz
(6) Make It Sweet
(4) Merrigold
(5) Somewhere
Suggested bet: Backing Reset The Jazz, smaller on Make It Sweet
Race 7
(4) Red Galaxy gets a big weight swing on (10) Sweethearted and he should have a fitness edge, too, having been only first up when hitting the line strongly at Geelong. Had three goes at Flemington but never been down the straight, so ignore that stat. Trialled very well leading into the campaign and was terrific fresh. 1200m ideal. Over the odds.
Be interesting to see if gate one ends up a positive or a negative for (6) Dirty Grin, but with even luck in running he’s right in the game. Blinkers go on here third-up and a soft jump-out between runs should have him at peak fitness.
Sweethearted will run well while (3) Steel Move is flying.
Selections:
(4) Red Galaxy
(6) Dirty Grin
(10) Sweethearted
(2) Steel Move
Suggested bet: Level staking Red Galaxy/Dirty Grin.
Race 8
(9) Fortune probably leads form (12) Darkbonee who might look to cross from the deep. Tempo even at best.
(12) Darkbonee plummets in weight but this is a sharp ride in grade for the promising stayer. Had every chance when narrowly winning at $1.50 in a BM66 at Geelong last time out. He has a slightly awkward draw so will need a good ride from Micky Dee early. On the up, but really hard to see why he’s $2.50 – it looks a poisonous price.
Can’t comprehend why (2) Saint George isn’t favourite. Dominant win at Cranbourne getting back on top of the ground last time out – that’s clearly the key to him. With that confidence booster under his belt he can go on with it now. Maps nicely. Clear horse to beat.
(5) Precious Charm is flying on top of the ground this campaign and she gets a soft run on speed – over the odds at $17.
The toppy (1) Berkeley Square got soft conditions to suit and a desirable tempo in his hometown Ballarat Cup. He’s now very deep into his campaign coming off 40 days and gets back onto dry ground up to 62kg – all key negatives.
(6) Shaiyhar didn’t have a lot of luck behind Saint George last time out. Goes well here at Flemington.
Selections:
(2) Saint George
(5) Precious Charm
(6) Shaiyhar
(1) Berkeley Square
Suggested bet: Saint George looks a big price. Expect him to start a clear favourite. Best of the day.
Race 9
(14) Botanical Boy is airborne and maps for a nice run here. Up in grade but gets the weight relief as a result.
(6) Recon has had an excellent preparation. Query at 1400m and doubt there’s much improvement being this deep into the campaign, but in the mix.
Would be going wider in the quaddie – tricky race.
Selections:
(14) Botanical Boy
(6) Recon
(1) Ndola
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 10
(8) Sass Appeal, (9) Eden Rose and (11) Russian Choice look the speed. Should be an even tempo.
Reckon the market is underrating (2) Jewel Bandit here. His maiden win at Cranbourne rated well and has proven a strong form race. Think his last start win at Geelong was as good a form reference as there is coming into there – there was some depth to that contest. He’s up 300m in trip but racing like the 1400m will suit. Drawn for an ideal run.
(5) Falset Star can settle handier from gate one. They snagged from a wide draw at Cranbourne last start but he was super strong late in a race dominated on speed. May get further in time but seems to be a horse that will relish Flemington.
(8) Sass Appeal will give a sight on speed. Good maiden win last start and the first two over the line there streeted the rest of the field. Race rated well and she will have a favourable wind assist her on speed.
The toppy (1) Buccleuch was set to return a couple of weeks ago when scratched. Always a concern when a horse has had five jump-outs leading into the first-up run – it suggests all hasn’t gone smoothly. Also have a few queries on some of the form around him (Observer simply didn’t turn up the day he beat him).
Selections:
(2) Jewel Bandit
(5) Falset Star
(8) Sass Appeal
(1) Bucchleuch
Suggested bet: Backing both Jewel Bandit and Falset Star.
