| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | No.5 Natural Ruler – Best | Up to 2400m and Mark Zahra. Looks a good recipe for him to win here 3rd up. |
| R7 | No.7 Gilded Water – Next Best | Monster win at 2000m two runs back. Bolted last start but still went huge in 3rd. Can make a statement here. |
| R8 | No.13 Spione – Value | Progressive horse. First up here off good trials and maps for a soft run. |
| R9 | No.9 Ashau Valley – Roughie | Enormous run fresh at Benalla when huge last 600m there. Big odds for a horse on the up. |
Turf Talk:
- Crazy conditions predicted for Geelong with strong winds. From the Bureau Of Meteorology: Damaging winds possible. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h shifting westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.
- If they hit during the meeting as predicted at 50 km/h then we could be in jeopardy for the meeting to go ahead or at very least have races run at unpredictable speeds given the conditions.
- Also 4 to 15mm predicted of rain throughout the day and if that hits, we could be on a genuine Soft track maybe even pushing the Heavy range.
- It does make this day hard to have confidence in 24 hours out.
The Stats That Matter:
- Anthony & Sam Freedman use Mark Zahra on their key chances and this season the combination has been in hot form. They’ve had 9 wins from 19 starters at 47% winning percentage and 75% Profit on Turnover. They have 2 runners together R1 – Natural Ruler and R3 – Barbaric Lad.
- Henry Dwyer is having a purple patch with his stable. He’s won 8 races from his past 50 starters, at a 16% winning percentage and 62% Profit on Turnover. He has a few runners on the day including R1 – Northern Barrage and R4 – Brung King.
- Leading rider Blake Shinn has been airborne over the past couple of weeks with 12 winners in his last 50 starters. That’s 1.35 wins vs an expected 1 win and 24% winning strike rate. He has been converting majority of those horses in the market with an average of $5.95 starting price for the 50 runners. Simply put, you can follow Shinn with confidence at the minute.
Race 1
(5) Natural Ruler has been good in his two starts in Australia to date, finding the line nicely in his last run at Mornington. Looks suited going up to 2400m and like the booking of leading rider Mark Zahra. Thought he maps for a good run and his form in Ireland really lifted when getting out in trip. Think he’s a great play at $6.50 odds. (3) Cable Dancer was doing his best work late at The Valley last start, when given a nice run hugging the rail in transit on a fence night, but racing in restricted room late. Another who has a sense of timing and is better suited to the 2400m distance. (13) Northern Barrage is the best roughie, after a while in the wilderness he finally found some form last time out and won well at Hamilton and drops down to 54.5kgs here. Stable airborne at the minute with 8 winners from last 50 starters and smashing market expectations in terms of predicted wins for that period. (11) Perfetto was just plain last start but that was on a dry track. Back on wet ground he could find his best form, which would have him a leading player here.
Selections:
(6) Natural Ruler
(3) Cable Dancer
(13) Northern Barrage
(11) Perfetto
Suggested Bet: Natural Ruler (Win)
Race 2
Intriguing race with the return of (4) Street Conqueror being the key to the race, who showed plenty of ability as a young horse before being sold and racing in Hong Kong, he’s made his way back to Australia with EJ and looks in great health if his jump-outs are a guide. This guy is very talented and in those jump-outs he has shown that the ability is still there. He gets the services of the in form Lachie Neindorf and at $5 feel he is a good price. (8) Altermatum is the clear danger and deserves to be high up in the market, on the basis of her fresh run behind the exciting Enamorada at Sandown, when she rattled home late in a high rating race. She’ll get back here again but has the class to win. Bit of a gap to (3) Sea Poem who comes through that same race and gets B Shinn on but needs to lift on ratings to win and (6) Escarpa who won well here fresh but finds a much harder race.
Selections:
(4) Street Conqueror
(8) Altermatum
(3) Sea Poem
(6) Escarpa
Suggested Bet: Street Conqueror (Win)
Race 3
Tricky race at the quirky 1300m trip and not much between these on peak ratings. Leant the way of (9) Astral Flame who has had the run back at Seymour and ran well despite feeling the pinch late fresh at 1200m on a reasonable speed. She’s been to the jump-outs since and looked sharp at Cranbourne, expecting from that, and with the added fitness, she rates up near her best here. The most talented horse in the race is no doubt (2) Otago who has been trialling well in the lead up to his return at the races, he may go back here though at 1300m given he doesn’t have a heap of natural pace and could be better suited up in distance. (7) Barbaric Lad can mix his form but ran up to somewhere near his best last start when 2nd at Sale. Mark Zahra is a good booking for this quirky customer as he can stand over him. He’s race fit and ready to win. (5) Deep Pleasure was OK last start at Caulfield, in a race dominated by those on speed. Run prior was a high rating performance when beaten by handy Chest Of Gold. Gets Shinn on here and has to be among the many chances.
Selections:
(9) Astral Flame
(2) Otago
(7) Barbaric Lad
(5) Deep Pleasure
Suggested Bet: No Bets – Too hard.
Race 4
The market was keen on (14) Lope De Lardo fresh at Cranbourne and whilst he was beaten there, the run was full of merit, having been back in the field and doing his best work late with a strong last 200m, relative to the race. Think he gets a nice run here for Craig Williams and feel with just 56kgs, 2nd up that he is set to run a new peak here. (6) Some People Callme was good on return at Sandown behind Silver Magnate and Flying Valley when sticking to his task. He has jumped out well since at Flemington and will be suited if this race is run at a good pace. (1) Brung King will love the wet ground that’s predicted and was a bold run first up. He could produce a big run here. (8) First Chorus is in great form and has the class to win, although she can give away a big start to her rivals with her backmarker racing pattern.
Selections:
(14) Lope De Lardo
(6) Some People Callme
(1) Brung King
(8) First Chorus
Suggested Bet: Lope De Lardo (Win) and Some People Callme (Win).
Race 5
Thought the win of (3) Matsuda was brilliant at Sale when smashing his rivals off a fast pace, he got lost a bit late, being so far in front from the 200m, and started to wander around so can argue he could have rated better if he went straight. I love the step up in trip for him and feel this is his race to lose on that win at Sale. I’d have him clear favourite on that rating and the fact he’s in a stable that just get it right with their lightly raced stayers. (14) Simply Gold comes out of a strong maiden at Ballarat at 2000m last start and looks to have had the right preparation to run the 2200m right out. He’s a real smokey for mine here at odds. (4) Azazel was good in the Super Impose behind Options and that looks a good reference for this. He draws for a soft run just behind the speed and should make his presence felt here. (10) Savisanta got too far back at Sale behind Matsuda and was a bit one-paced when they took off but kept coming to the line. He’ll love the step up in trip on that run and Waller has peaked a few for this race in the past.
Selections:
(3) Matsuda
(14) Simply Gold
(4) Azazel
(10) Savisanta
Suggested Bet: Matsuda (Win) and Simply Gold (Each-Way)
Race 6
Deep race with a host of winning chances and progressive gallopers in the race. I thought (4) Emphasize was a good run at The Valley last start when posted wide on a fence night and battled hard for 4th. He’s now hard race fit and gets the services of Craig Williams who has ridden him well in the past. Expect him to roll forward here and at $10 he appeals as a value play. (1) Shiny New Deel has been flying this prep and was a big win last start at 1800m when leading throughout. He’ll roll forward again here and take beating. (5) The Muffin Man could be an improver with the blinkers on here 2nd up for Shane Jackson after an even effort fresh, his best form last prep around Athanatos stands up well for this. (12) Prochester likes wet ground and could improve drastically 2nd up at a more suitable trip.
Selections:
(4) Emphasize
(1) Shiny New Deel
(5) The Muffin Man
(12) Prochester
Suggested Bet: Emphasize (Each-Way).
Race 7
Year in, year out this race is a beauty and the field this year suggests we should get a cracking contest. Think the market is right here with (7) Gilded Water being favourite. He’s the horse on the up, who produced a big rating performance at Caulfield over 2000m. The Bart Cummings was a nightmare for his connections and backers when he took hold of Jamie Melham and bolted in front, running sectionals too fast to sustain and being over run late. His effort was still enormous to run 3rd and they’ve now put the Norton Bit on for him to settle better and employed strong jockey Dec Bates. Think he makes a statement here and becomes one of the leading Melbourne Cup chances. (3) Onesmoothoperator won this race last year and then started $7 in the big race on the first Tuesday last year. Since then, he has mixed his form, his run two back behind Al Qareem rated well for this and eclipsed his form leading into this last year but he was very disappointing in his last run in. I’ll back him in to run to his best though given how he performed here last spring. (4) Torranzino was a big run in The Bart Cummings when 2nd to Valiant King, who backed up that form in the Caulfield Cup. He’d love a fast pace again here and usually holds his form once he holds it. (2) Berkeley Square and (9) Fernao were both also big runs in that same race and hit the race in good form.
Selections:
(7) Gilded Water
(3) Onesmoothoperator
(4) Torranzino
(2) Berkeley Square
Suggested Bet: Gilded Water (Win).
Race 8
Another deep race with some quality gallopers for this level including Stolli Bolli and Proved. Think the progressive (13) Spione is the overs in the race though given he was terrific last prep and has jumped out very sharply at Flemington. Think he gets a dream run from an inside gate for Jye McNeil who is riding in good form and feel he can be the knockout late. (12) Stoli Bolli is in hot form but has just found one better at his past two. Should push forward here from gate 1 and drops in weight 2.5kgs given he technically goes up in class, despite this likely being a weaker race than his last run. Just feel he is rock bottom odds though. (6) Persian Spirit was enormous first up at Flemington when winning and then good last start when just off that first up rating. He has won here and draws to get back and come down the middle late. (14) Kiko was close up at The Valley last start in a similar race, her form prior amongst Don’t Hope Do has to put her in the mix.
Selections:
(13) Spione
(12) Stoli Bolli
(6) Persian Spirit
(14) Kiko
Suggested Bet: Spione (Each-Way).
Race 9
Race of the day, this! The Melbourne Cup Country Series Heat and feel we can have a cracking bet in the race with roughie (9) Ashau Valley. He had a terrific preparation last time in, really elevating on what he’d done previously but his first up run was terrific at Benalla in a heat of this series on Cup Day there. His last 600m was enormous against the day and he had to circle the field doing it the hard way. Like the booking of Ben Melham and think he can lift again on that run. Completely overlooked by the market at $21, marked him $7 and keen to bet given that. (5) Flying Valley is airborne this prep and makes his own luck on speed. Crossed the line with Tom Kitten last start in the Feehan Stakes and prior to that beat the impressive Silver Magnate. (1) Outta Compton doesn’t know how to run a bad race and thought he trialled well in the lead up here. His best form is certainly good enough to figure in the finish here and the rain predicted only helps him. (14) Dubai Watch rated well two back and happy to forgive last run. He maps for a soft run and has won here.
Against favourite (11) Jenni The Fox who looks far too short off OK runs in harder grade but not convinced she’s flying and draws wide with a tricky map.
Selections:
(9) Ashau Valley
(5) Flying Valley
(1) Outta Compton
(14) Dubai Watch
Suggested Bet: Ashau Valley (Win/Place 1×3).
