Mitch Lewis’ Sandown Sunday Tips: Best bets and value plays at Lakeside

Best Bets

• Best Bet: Race 7 – (3) Zebra Finch
• Next Best: Race 5 – (4) Talkin’ Italian

Turf Talk

• The track is rated a Heavy 9 and, despite clear weather, the cool conditions are unlikely to allow for much improvement in the surface.
• This is the first meeting on the Lakeside track in almost a month, with the rail True from the 400m to the winning post and +4m for the remainder.
• At the previous meeting here, which featured both jumps and flat racing, runners gravitated towards the middle lanes in the straight rather than the inside rail. Similar conditions are expected today, although the track should still play fairly overall.

Key stats

• Jabez Johnstone continues to impress in Victoria, riding 28 winners from his past 100 rides for a +30.6% POT. At Sandown Lakeside he has returned an outstanding +74.5% POT from just 13 rides.
• Ciaron Maher heads to the meeting with a mix of jumpers and flat runners. His stable has been in excellent form, producing a 21% winning strike rate from the past 100 runners with a +22% POT.

Race 5

(4) Talkin’ Italian has found super form since joining a new stable with a placing to kick off this prep before a win last time. This is perhaps a slight rise in grade but, he has a strong record at this distance and has showed he can handle the wet conditions so looks suited. (2) Mongolian City has won 3 of 4 starts so far this prep and could be suited on this track and he potentially looks to lead the field and has won his last two in wet conditions. (5) Valedictorian resumes, he has only won once in his career but has been consistent, looks ready to resume in good fashion off the back of 3 trials which includes a good win in his last. Keeping a close watch on (6) Allgreektome who is an ex Hong Kong runner resuming here, he has had 3 solid trials this prep and could be capable of putting speed into the race which will suit but he is untested outside of the trials in these conditions.

Selections

(4) Talkin’ Italian
(2) Mongolian City
(5) Valedictorian
(6) Allgreektome

Suggested Bet: (4) Talkin’ Italian – Win

CHECK OUT MITCH ELLIS’ PREVIEW OF TODAY’S FEATURE JUMPS ACTION HERE

Race 7

(3) Zebra Finch will drop in grade from what he has been contesting in his last few starts which should bring on improvement for him. He looks likely to get a soft run from barrier 1 and will be prominent in ideal wet track conditions. (4) Pariah Pearl looks the likely leader of this race which could give him a strong advantage in this small field, if he can get a strong control of the tempo of the race he could prove hard to catch late. (10) Two Sigma gets in light at the weights vs rivals in this field so expect she will be hitting the line strongly late. (5) Deny Entry won well in wet conditions last start, this is a step up in level but he has showed he can handle a wet track and should appreciate a slight rise in distance.

Selections

(3) Zebra Finch
(4) Pariah Pearl
(10) Two Sigma
(5) Deny Entry

Suggested Bet: (3) Zebra Finch – Win