| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | Juja Kibo (Best Bet) | Progressive stayer chasing another win. |
| R8 | Tempted (Next Best) | Blistering return win. Suited to 1400m. |
| R7 | Gerringong (Best Value) | Maps for soft lead. Peaking third up. |
| R10 | Roselyn’s Star (Best E/W) | Forgive last run. Sharp tick-over trial since. |
Turf Talk
- Rail True Entire. With the dry track it should favour those on speed with lanes 2–8 key in transit.
- Horses settling further back than midfield need a solid tempo up front to be running on.
The Stats That Matter:
- Over the past 90 days Dylan Gibbons is striking at an impressive 21.4% with a positive POT of +28.4%.
- The Ryan & Alexiou stable is one to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP. The team is striking at 22.7% with a POT of +36.1%. They are effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1
Wide open Midway to kick off proceedings. (1) Alabama State has been gelded into this prep and once again has trialled up strongly. He’ll need luck from the draw but goes on top. (4) Mogwai bounced back to form sharply last start with a positive ride. I expect a similar set up here today from barrier 7. (5) Vetwelve hits this race in career best form and full of fitness coming off a strong tick-over trial. If they overdo it up front, look for the smart mare (6) Meridiana to be storming over the top late.
Selections:
1. Alabama State
4. Mogwai
5. Vetwelve
6. Meridiana
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2
Extremely open Highway this week. $5.50 sums the race up. (6) Ready And Lucky gets a lovely run from barrier 5 coming off two smart recent efforts. (2) Warrior For Peace needs a good ride to offset the draw. He’s got a sharp turn of speed and should enjoy the fast tempo. Interested to see what (1) Samurai does here in Highway grade. He was far from disgraced last start at the midweeks. (9) Smart Buy and (7) Fan Harder are next best.
Selections:
6. Ready And Lucky
2. Warrior For Peace
1. Samurai
9. Smart Buy
7. Fan Harder
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 3
Solid edition of the Colin Stephen Quality. Keen to side with the progressive stayer (7) Juja Kibo. He should be looking at 4 wins on the trot if it wasn’t for a plain ride two back. Dominant last start win and will need to win this race well if he wants to get a start in the Metropolitan. (5) Taramansour brings solid form around Revelare in Melbourne. He may want further than 2400m now but has the fitness on his side. (4) Good Banter has been the market mover early doors. 35 days between runs is the concern though. (8) Piggyback is next best.
Selections:
7. Juja Kibo
5. Taramansour
4. Good Banter
8. Piggyback
Suggested Bet – Juja Kibo WIN
Race 4
It looks to be (9) She’s Unusual’s race to lose on paper. She brings the strong Travolta form line to this event and looks better placed back to 1900m deep into the prep. (8) Nkosi maps well from barrier 5 and should land outside of the leader. In a race that lacks tempo I expect him to get every chance. I respect (4) Strathtay and the early market support. The knock is the lack of speed and his lack of tactical presence. (11) The Years is next best.
Selections:
9. She’s Unusual
8. Nkosi
4. Strathtay
11. The Years
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 5
Happy to side with (3) Lord Of Biscay here second up. He was again impressive first up but I’m hoping, similar to last prep, he finds that 1–2L improvement between runs. The tick-over trial and James sticking are two positive attributes. (10) Formal Display resented the heavy track in the Tuncurry Cup. Back to a firm deck and down in the weights reads very well. I liked the first-up work of (9) Asgarda. She has a sharp second-up record as well as two wins at 1400m. (8) Point And Shoot is next best.
Selections:
3. Lord Of Biscay
10. Formal Display
9. Asgarda
8. Point And Shoot
Suggested Bet – Lord Of Biscay WIN
Race 6
Intriguing edition of the Heritage Stakes for the 3yos. Happy to side with the Golden Slipper winner (4) Marhoona. She’s been held back slightly and aimed up perfectly at this race. She’s looked sharp in two recent trials around the likes of Headwall and Briasa. The ace card she holds here is the inside draw. (2) Beadman has had the fitness poured into his legs in a recent 1050m trial. The booking of McDonald is key but the gate is the big query. (11) Akaysha brings a different form line to this event. She’s another who should get an ideal run from the 1100m chute start. (9) Central Coast is next best getting back on top of the ground.
Selections:
4. Marhoona
2. Beadman
11. Akaysha
9. Central Coast
Suggested Bet – Marhoona WIN
Race 7
Keen to side with (6) Gerringong in this year’s Golden Pendant. He’s been asked to work early in his two Victorian runs back this prep. The script gets flipped today, he should get a soft lead out in front, peaking third up. The big watch is on (2) Firestorm. 4/5 fresh and nearly beat a mare named Lady Shenandoah last time in. (1) Manaal has claims no doubt, but $2.90 is very skinny in my mind. She got the perfect run last time out when winning. Happy to bring that win back a touch. (8) Snow In May rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
6. Gerringong
2. Firestorm
1. Manaal
8. Snow In May
Suggested Bet – Gerringong WIN / Firestorm SAVE
Race 8
The Golden Rose for 2025. One of, if not my favourite races. It’s hard to go past (9) Tempted off her blistering first-up win in the Run To The Rose. She’s bred to lap up 1400m but will need some luck early from the draw. (3) Skyhook won’t need any luck from his draw. He should find the 1-1 and get every chance. (4) Wodeton had to go back and wide in the Run To The Rose. He gets a better set up here and also gets the blinkers on first time for his grand final. Stablemate (7) Autumn Boy brings a different form line. He was outstanding against the bias in the Ming Dynasty and is another who gets blinkers on first time. Staying at 1400m is the concern for me.
Selections:
9. Tempted
3. Skyhook
4. Wodeton
7. Autumn Boy
Suggested Bet – Tempted / Skyhook WIN
Race 9
(4) Rise At Dawn has been underrated by the market early doors and looks clearly the one to beat now Gringotts has come out. He was terrific first up when exposed to a hot tempo. He should slide across easily from the draw and get his chance. (8) Waterford finds James McDonald and has been heavily backed in early markets. The big watch is (9) Maison Louis at odds. The Queensland Derby winner has looked sharp in two recent trials and must be respected. Outside of that, (7) Encap gets his chance now from a lovely inside draw.
Selections:
4. Rise At Dawn
8. Waterford
9. Maison Louis
7. Encap
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 10
Cracking end to the program. Keen to side with (8) Roselyn’s Star who brings a strong last start SP. That was a forgive run off the back of a long layoff. She’s looked sharp in a recent tick-over trial and gets the run of the race. (14) Chidiac will need a gun ride to unlock some fresh air in the straight. He’s in terrific order and presents here off a slick recent tick-over trial. The knock on (7) Polyglot is $3.60 and the awful barrier. From the 1100m Rosehill start that looks a tough ask. (9) Sunrise is next best.
Selections:
8. Roselyn’s Star
14. Chidiac
7. Polyglot
9. Sunrise
Suggested Bet – Roselyn’s Star WIN
