Betsy’s Set – Moir Stakes Day

The Plan of Attack:

Turf Talk

• Rail back to the true after being out 5m at the last meeting.
• Track starting to dry out and strong winds on Saturday should further aid drying.
• Expecting horses on speed and close to the rail to have an advantage.

The Stats That Matter

• Lanes 1 and 2 are clearly the best places to be at The Valley, rail true and all rail positions.
• Lane 1: 15.4% strike, +18.7% PoT; Lane 2: 14.3% strike, +11.8% PoT.
• Grahame Begg is flying: 28% from his last 100 runners.
• Clinton McDonald places his horses to advantage: 24% strike from his last 100 runners.
• Queensland jockey Ryan Maloney: 25% from his last 100 rides.

Race 1 – 1600m

Think (7) Poor Ol’ Johny Ray and (4) Graphic Sight (if he jumps cleanly with blinkers on) probably lead, with (3) Menshevik right there.

Concede he needs a bit of luck from the gate, but (2) Godtfred Kirk is clearly the horse to beat. He was completely luckless last start, and his Sandown win prior was excellent. Love the step to a mile and, provided J Mott can navigate a clear passage approaching the home bend, I think he can win.

(4) Graphic Sight could be a big improver with the shades on. They wanted to be more forward last start but he played up in the barriers and was slow out. Expect a positive ride out to the mile.

Selections:
(2) Godtfred Kirk
(4) Graphic Sight
(6) Miewa
(5) Ornos

Suggested bet: Keen to back (2) Godtfred Kirk, small saver on (4) Graphic Sight

Race 2 – 1600m

Speed comes from (6) Savilla and (10) The Marg Factor, primarily. The latter generally likes to roll in her races.

(11) Yachiyo was a touch slow out first-up at Sandown, which proved costly. If she begins cleanly from the pole she can drive up and get the leader’s back, and from there be awfully hard to beat. Her first campaign form is outstanding and, dropping in weight (albeit up in grade), she looks dangerous.

Love how (8) Bonnaroo is going and she can run a race at a big price. Not sure The Valley is her track, but she maps reasonably and should be strong at the end of the mile.

(5) Moonlight Circus is airborne, but she’s 30 days between runs and concussion plates go on — not music to punters’ ears! (6) Savilla had a few things in her favour first-up but trialled well prior and should improve again.

Selections:
(11) Yachiyo
(8) Bonnaroo
(5) Moonlight Circus
(6) Savilla

Suggested bet: (11) Yachiyo about her right price. Might play some exotics in the race.

Race 3 – 1600m

(4) The Creator probably leads. Can’t imagine they ride (5) Dragoon with a sit again — suspect he rolls forward. (3) Reset The Jazz thereabouts. Speed should be solid.

This is bloody tough! And, my original top selections has been scratched.

(4) The Creator rises in weight for beating a number of key rivals last start but has the map advantage and will be in this a long way. (5) Dragoon had all favours on a leader’s deck when winning first-up at Sandown; last time they rode him with a sit and he was plain. If he pushes forward, he’ll give a sight.

Selections:
(4) The Creator
(5) Dragoon
(1) King’s Valley
(3) Reset The Jazz

Suggested bet: Happy to watch.

Race 4 – 2040m

There should be good speed. (10) Navy King will press from a wide draw to lead, (11) Rise To It similar, (3) Miss Tarzy right there.

Nightmare race to work out.

(2) Lincoln Rocks didn’t have much luck first-up here at the mile. Better suited at 2040m and goes well at The Valley. He’ll need luck early to get a reasonable run, but if Ryan Houston can get him one-off in midfield, he’s right in this.

(8) Fame hasn’t won for an eternity, but he was OK on, and through, the line at Caulfield last start and this is suitable.

Not sure how well she’s going this prep, but getting back to a dry deck is a huge plus for (15) Dream All Day. The negatives: horror draw, recent form looks moderate on paper and she’ll spot them a huge start — but she’s talented and, with luck, can figure.

Selections:
(2) Lincoln Rocks
(8) Fame
(15) Dream All Day
(3) Miss Tarzy

Suggested bet: Deal me out…

Race 5 – 1200m Chautauqua Stakes

Good race. Speed from (1) Compelling Truth and (5) Red Hot Nicc, and they should roll along. (2) Zou Sensation and (4) Mirival Rose next.

(3) Angel Capital won the McKenzie Stakes on this day last year, so he’s handled The Valley. He’s the class horse, but the map could see him buried three back the fence — risky at 6/4. Also a niggle off a long break.

(4) Miraval Rose seems a big price at $8. She has trialled brilliantly for this return, maps nicely and her best ratings put her right in this. (5) Red Hot Nicc loves The Valley but this is his stiffest test; he had a picnic in front last time and may have been flattered. Still, he makes his own luck and will be in the right spot turning.

Selections:
(4) Miraval Rose
(3) Angel Capital
(5) Red Hot Nicc
(1) Compelling Truth

Suggested bet: Think (4) Miraval Rose is over the odds.

Race 6 – 1200m McKenzie Stakes

Cracking race. Speed from (2) Bacash and debutant (9) Rosberg. (1) Space Raider next.

Have a huge opinion of (6) Planet Red, who should get a nice run just behind a genuine speed. His first-up win looked workmanlike but the third horse (Bingi) has since won on a Saturday — there was merit. Ultimately, he probably wants 1400m+, but this is a good stepping stone.

(9) Rosberg has been thrown in the deep end on debut but trialled well in fast time and should settle right on speed. Clinton McDonald has a great record with debutants and he’s taken his time — expect a bold showing.

(5) Estremo was strong late here last time and has a super hope, while (2) Bacash will be in it a long way.

Selections:
(6) Planet Red
(9) Rosberg
(5) Estremo
(2) Bacash

Suggested bet: Backing (6) Planet Red, smaller on (9) Rosberg

Race 7 – 1200m Atlantic Jewel Stakes

(11) Angel Ladder and (1) The Playwright probably fight for the lead.

This is tough! How the track plays will be vital.

(5) Ole Dancer has been freshened after her good win fresh at Caulfield. She also has a sticky draw/map, but B Shinn is a positive. Blinkers go back on (1) The Playwright and she can bounce back second-up. If it’s mad on-speed, she’ll keep firming. (8) Alpha Sofie has been winning well in Queensland and loved her work through the line in a recent jump-out since coming south. Draws softly and may settle closer than recent starts.

Selections:
(8) Alpha Sofie
(1) The Playwright
(5) Ole Dancer
(2) Ferivia

Suggested bet: Go wide in the quaddie…

Race 8 – 1500m So You Think Stakes

Speed looks just fair. (7) Goldman generally rolls forward over staying trips but first-up at 1500m probably takes a sit. That leaves (11) Glint Of Silver to take it up, with (4) Desert Lightning right there.

Gee, would love (6) Moira to have drawn a gate! She was huge in the Lawrence, running the best last 600/400m of the meeting. The concern is she’ll likely drift back from the wide draw which could be problematic.

(4) Desert Lightning can press forward from his wide draw. He has the benefit of recent racing and the Queensland sun on his back on some key rivals. This looks an ideal race for him, but he’s well found.

Don’t know if he can win against this class at 1500m but (5) Torranzino is worth a small each-way play at $41. He has trialled super for this return and has a sharp turn of foot. Gate one could be curse or blessing; if he gets a suck run and a split, he can dive-bomb late. Celine Gaudray has ridden him four times for two wins and two seconds and she’s in great form.

Selections:
(5) Torranzino
(6) Moira
(4) Desert Lightning
(2) Attrition

Suggested bet: Having something very small each-way (5) Torranzino. If they’re making ground, will also send (6) Moira around a winner.

Race 8 – 1000m Moir Stakes

Not a strong Group 1 but a great betting race.

They will go like the clappers here. (2) Midwest has speed to burn, with (1) Rothfire, (4) Golden Boom, (12) Alabama Lass and (16) Esha all right there. They should fly.

Think (10) Arabian Summer is over the odds. She can get a suck run from gate one and, if Harry Coffey finds clean air on the bend, she can be strong late while others are gasping. She flies fresh, her jump-outs have been good and she has the talent to win this. Gate one has produced three of the past six winners.

(11) Skybird is the best horse in the race for mine. She had a few favours when winning the Lightning first-up in the autumn, but still had the talent to capitalise. Jump-outs have been good and she should relish the strong tempo.

(7) Baraqiel will need a good ride from the gate and probably wants 1200m, but he’s classy and will be super strong late while others wilt.

3YOs have a good record here: She Will Reign and Coolangatta (fillies) and Extreme Choice (colt). This is a big step up for (16) Esha and there’s pressure, but she’s untapped and can figure — though under the odds.

Selections:
(10) Arabian Summer
(11) Skybird
(7) Baraqiel
(16) Esha

Betting Strategy: Backing (10) Arabian Summer and (11) Skybird

Race 10 – 1200m

This looks a race in two between (1) La Fracas and (3) King Zephyr — two very promising gallopers.

(3) King Zephyr has been trialling outstandingly. If he brings anything like his best, his rivals will need a personal best to beat him. He should have a tactical advantage on (1) La Fracas, which gives him a big edge on Saturday. Ultimately, 1200m might be the bottom of his range, but this looks a winnable kick-off.

If the track is mad on-speed, then (10) Princess Que might give some cheek.

Selections:
(3) King Zephyr
(1) La Fracas
(10) Princess Que
(6) Flyer

Suggested bet: Think $2.60+ is a reasonable price about (3) King Zephyr.