Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 3 No.9 Mystery ’N’ Drama
Next Best: Race 6 No.2 Royal Rendezvous
Race 1 – 3:40PM Mornington Peninsula 3MP Plate (1000m)
I’m not typically one to side with a debutant, but (4) Raining Fire has made a strong impression across three jumpout appearances. She’s held her own in quality company, travelling well under restraint alongside Rich Lover and Egerton. A younger half-sister to one of my favourites, Mrs Chrissie, she looks well-equipped to make a winning debut.
(8) Heidi Dancer finished third behind subsequent Flemington winner, Thanks Gorgeous. While that reads well on paper, the level of form Thanks Gorgeous produced at Flemington was materially stronger than what she showed at Mornington, so the formline can’t be taken at face value. Still, Heidi Dancer remains a genuine winning chance based on her debut performance.
(9) Peninsula Rose was forced to race wide into a strong tempo at Mornington on debut and understandably weakened late. That run is best forgiven. She’s since trialled well and can improve sharply.
(5) Arlington Row is by Kingman out of a full sister to an Irish St Leger winner. If she’s sharp enough to win over five furlongs, I’m not here.
Selections:
(4) Raining Fire
(8) Heidi Dancer
(9) Peninsula Rose
(5) Arlington Row
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2 – 4:15PM Brad Masters Plumbing Handicap (1000m)
(4) Playlist has been largely untested in two runs this preparation and can improve significantly under the right circumstances. She was poorly handled on resumption by an inexperienced rider and wasn’t fully extended at Pakenham last start. Lightly raced, and based on her debut, which remains the best run of her career, it’s reasonable to suggest we haven’t yet seen her ceiling.
(5) Talladega Girl was driven to make the pace in a fiercely run race at Yarra Valley before weakening to finish second last under Bree Temple. That effort was an unfair reflection of her talent. She’s since trialled as if she’s come on well, and the booking of Damian Lane is a major positive. Untried at five furlongs, but she has plenty of speed and shouldn’t be outpaced.
(6) Zoubelle has drawn awkwardly, widest of the six, but has the pace to work across and settle outside the lead. That said, she may be made to do too much early and could be vulnerable late.
(1) Harmonett has trialled well leading into this and can resume with a win. Dakotah Keane will need to navigate the draw with speed inside her, but the mare has ability.
Selections:
(4) Playlist
(5) Talladega Girl
(6) Zoubelle
(1) Harmonett
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3 – 4:50PM Big Event Picnic Tables Plate (1500m)
(9) Mystery ’N’ Drama was beaten in a strong Maiden a fortnight ago after making the pace and sprinting well. By Lucky Vega out of an Oaks winner, the rise to 1500 metres looks ideal. I’d be surprised if she didn’t start odds-on.
(4) Pierrobid was thrashed by Observer on debut, and while he was beaten 10 lengths, the rating from that race stacks up well against this field. He finished strongly at his second start on the synthetic and has trialled as if he’s come back sound.
(3) Jimmy Beans has shown ability in his trials and can make an impression on debut.
(5) Punic War has a degree of talent but will need things to fall his way.
Selections:
(9) Mystery ’N’ Drama
(4) Pierrobid
(3) Jimmy Beans
(5) Punic War
Suggested Bet: (9) Mystery ’N’ Drama (Best Bet)
Race 4 – 5:25PM Sportsbet Fast Form Plate (1200m)
(9) Sattva has settled well into the Freedman camp and has trialled impressively leading into her return. She was poor on debut, but that’s easily excused. I couldn’t take the current price, however.
(3) Get Honor looks ready to make an impression on debut following several encouraging jumpouts.
(6) Irreverent has solid form through Regal Award from last preparation and has trialled as though she’s returned a better mare.
(8) Sassidora should make the running from barrier one and will be in front for a long way.
Selections:
(9) Sattva
(3) Get Honor
(6) Irreverent
(8) Sassidora
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5 – 6:00PM The Devilbend Golf Course Handicap (1200m)
(7) Brandjam has underperformed relative to market expectations in two runs this campaign. Third-up, with Damian Lane booked, this appears as if it may be her peak run for the prep. A return to the level he showed last preparation, when fourth behind Harry’s Yacht at Caulfield, would see him win this. I’d be surprised if he didn’t start favourite.
(4) Alero was on the wrong side of the track at Flemington relative to where the pace was. He can improve sharply, stepping up to six furlongs.
Selections:
(7) Brandjam
(4) Alero
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6 – 6:30PM Sportsbet Fixed Odds Exotics Handicap (1200m)
(2) Royal Rendezvous was unlucky at Geelong last start after being heavily backed. He was poorly ridden, so the booking of Damian Lane is a significant positive in this. He can be slowly away and will ultimately be a seven-to-eight furlong horse, but he looks well above this grade.
(3) Tennessee Song should be second favourite after winning in good time last start. You can save on her if you wish.
(5) Crocodile is highly talented and destined for better races, but six furlongs is likely to be too sharp.
Selections:
(2) Royal Rendezvous
(3) Tennessee Song
(5) Crocodile
Suggested Bet: (2) Royal Rendezvous (Next Best Bet)
Race 7 – 7:00PM ModTech Group Electricians Handicap (2050m)
(1) Super Mirage was heavily supported first-up in his first start for Gavin Bedggood, but nothing went right, and the run can be forgiven. Blinkers go on, and it wouldn’t surprise to see him roll forward.
(9) Olney has talent on his day and can run to a level that gives this race a shake.
(2) Sinhalese is a capable gelding, but his lack of early speed, combined with an apprentice rider, counts against him.
Selections:
(1) Super Mirage
(9) Olney
(2) Sinhalese
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8 – 7:30PM Sportsbet More Places Handicap (1500m)
(7) Vivacissimo raced without cover at Flemington in a strong race and still produced a career-best effort. On that basis, further improvement is likely. He can roll forward from barrier 10 under Ben Allen.
(3) Savamoon continues to race consistently well but looks to have found his level, unlike Vivacissimo, who remains on an upward trajectory.
(8) The Negotiator has drawn wide but finished strongly late last start.
Selections:
(7) Vivacissimo
(3) Savamoon
(8) The Negotiator
Suggested Bet: No Bet
