| Race | Horse | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| R3/5 | Zebella (Best) | Has good early speed and a light weight, could take catching |
| R5/8 | Flaming Navy | Impressive win last start, rises in grade here but gets conditions to suit |
| R8/11 | Self Serve (Value) | Drops slightly in grade and likely races prominently |
| R9/1 | Vintage Star (Roughie) | Tricky race to map but he gets a good run, can improve down in grade |
Turf Talk:
- Given the postponement of last week’s meeting, the rail does not move from last week’s position and will be +6m entire.
- It is forecast to be a clear day with no rain so the meeting will start on a Good 4 and with warm conditions there is the potential of an upgrade to a Good 3 at some stage.
- Still expecting a fair track with runners getting their chance to make up ground.
The stats that matter:
- Country trainer Daryl Dodson has two runners engaged for this meeting and he is in serious form. His winning strike rate in his last 100 runners is 15% at a healthy POT of +29.7%.
Race 1
(4) Guru Warrior has found super form in his last two starts running away with two impressive wins in a row now. He relishes this distance and again looks well suited with this set up. (6) King Of Wessex improved last start to break. through for an overdue win, he needs to take a step up in grade but gets in light at the weights here and maps to be in a positive position in run. (5) Talisay has form around the in form stayer Darknconfidential so brings in strong form lines, but may need a soft run here to see out the 2000m trip. (2) Staunch is coming here off the back of winning the Avoca Cup in impressive fashion. He is drawn well here and at peak fitness 3rd up into the prep.
Selections:
(4) Guru Warrior
(6) King Of Wessex
(5) Talisay
(2) Staunch
Suggested Bet – No bet, Guru Warrior looks tough to beat but not willing to play at that short price in a race like this.
Race 2
(1) Golden Horizon could have a fitness advantage on rivals in this race now 3rd up into his prep. He was 2nd behind the handy Virtual Illusion first up before an impressive win last start at this track. He goes well here and maps well so can win again. (3) Bootlegger put up some good runs in his last prep when a 2YO, his recent trials have been solid so suggest he will be here in good order but may improve over further later this prep. (2) Ground Control was a winner on debut at Sale back in May and resumes here off the back of some handy trial form, he raced on speed in his debut run so expecting a forward showing. (4) Mostly For Show is still a maiden runner but was competitive in some strong 2YO races last prep, expecting to see him hitting the line strongly so a fast tempo would suit.
Selections:
(1) Golden Horizon
(3) Bootlegger
(2) Ground Control
(4) Mostly For Show
Suggested Bet – No bet, hard to have confidence as any of these resuming runners could jump out of the ground.
Race 3
Similar to the race (5) Zebella didn’t contest last week due to the meeting abandonment, she looks well set up from a map perspective in this race. Drawn to the inside she looks likely to race on speed and will carry only 52.5kgs on her back after an apprentice claim so could prove tough to catch late. (2) Karavas will drop in grade from the two recent races she contested at Caulfield, she should find this much easier than those runs and is getting in light at the weights after an apprentice claim. (4) Mt Niseko has been in form having won two of his last three starts. He was well supported last time to only just miss but he can settle close again from the inside barrier. (1) Sir Now rates highly and ran into the placings at listed level two starts back so he looks suited in this grade but will need to carry a big weight which is the query.
Selections:
(5) Zebella
(2) Karavas
(4) Mt Niseko
(1) Sir Now
Suggested Bet – Zebella (Win)
Race 4
(2) The Mansman has been knocking on the door having run into the placings in his last three starts, he has been consistent and an inside barrier should help him get a soft run and be strong over the 2000m trip. (5) Savatoff ran 2nd to Guru Warrior last start which is a form line that could be franked earlier in this meeting. This race rates as a drop in grade. (8) Zain Prince is 4th up into his prep and should likely be suited with this rise up in distance. (3) Lomax maps to get back in the run so will be hopeful for a quick tempo and this is a sharp drop down in grade for him today.
Selections:
(2) The Mansman
(5) Savatoff
(8) Zain Prince
(3) Lomax
Suggested Bet – No bet
Race 5
(8) Flaming Navy put in a huge performance last start when winning a midweek race at Balaklava by nearly 7 lengths. He needs to take a step up in level today but gets in light at the weights and looks much better suited on a dry track instead of what he was faced with if we raced in the wet last weekend. (3) Super Lad put in a bold effort last start when running 2nd in the Halidon Cup, his form before that was strong when winning three in a row. Expect a forward showing from him on speed. (7) Capulet makes his debut for a new stable here; expect he can race on speed from barrier 2 and he has won some stronger races previously when back in Victoria. (11) Alainge had little luck late in his last start before hitting the line strongly, rises to this trip for the first time but drawn to the inside should see him land in a good position.
Selections:
(8) Flaming Navy
(3) Super Lad
(7) Capulet
(11) Alainge
Suggested Bet – Flaming Navy (Win)
Race 6
Victorian visitor (1) Porter steps up to the 1600m trip for the first time here. The trip may test him, but his Victorian form is in stronger races and there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed in this race which could see him get a soft run. (2) Snoopy Now showed good improvement in his last start and hit the line strongly over the 1400m, you would expect he will prefer more ground here today. (8) Showrunner found good form for his new stable last prep. He may take a few runs to find peak fitness levels and maybe is better suited over more ground, but he is undefeated over the 1600m trip. (11) Swycho is rising up in grade but could give this field something to catch as she has good speed and will only carry 51kgs on her back which could be a big advantage.
Selections:
(1) Porter
(2) Snoopy Now
(8) Showrunner
(11) Swycho
Suggested Bet – No bet, want to see if any leader bias is apparent to perhaps pivot to back Swycho if so.
Race 7
(10) Pelevecchio has been a tough follow for punters so far this prep when running 3rd in two starts at short prices. She has black type form lines through last prep, so this level looks more than winnable for her if she can find that better form 3rd up into the prep now. (12) High Tor is another runner who has a positive race map from barrier two and is getting in low at the weights after an apprentice claim so could take catching. (8) Obi is a last start winner over the 1600m. He has won three times over this trip now and is mapping for a softer run today, so he won’t surprise at a big price. There isn’t a great amount of speed in the race so (13) High Garden looks likely to land in a good position from barrier 3, he faded over the 1800m trip last time so a drop back to the 1600m with a good race map looks a much better set up.
Selections:
(10) Pelevecchio
(12) High Tor
(8) Obi
(13) High Garden
Suggested Bet – No bet
Race 8
Victorian (11) Self Serve has finished 2nd in both of her runs so far this prep. She finds herself in a very winnable race here, she gets a light weight on her back after a 3kg claim so if she can be positive from a low barrier she can race prominently. (13) Isla’s Fury won well last start at a short price, looking to step up in grade now but is another runner with a light weight and positive race map. (4) Dapper Don ran 2nd in a stronger race last start so could be better suited down in grade and back to this distance. (7) Capitalex won 1st up but disappointed last start when well in the market, forgiving of that run as his previous form is much better, he can bounce back.
Selections:
(11) Self Serve
(13) Isla’s Fury
(4) Dapper Don
(7) Capitalex
Suggested Bet – Self Serve (Win)
Race 9
This is a tough race to get the race map right with, plenty of speed on but some of that speed is drawn out very wide. That could see (1) Vintage Star get the run of the race from a low barrier, he disappointed last start when dropping in grade but worth a small play at the bigger price given the stronger races he has been in recently. (3) Streetcar Fury has promised lots this prep and finally rewarded those who stuck with him last start. He remains in a similar grade today and the race map looks more favourable for him than it does for others. (11) Palm Of Jumeirah looked good when resuming flashing late to run 3rd, she has improvement to give but the wide barrier does her no favours and she may need luck late when searching for a run. (6) Round Two recently won back to back races before he over raced badly next time but still managed to finish in the placings. He went back to the trials and looked in much better order there so expecting he can improve on last start
Selections:
(1) Vintage Star
(3) Streetcar Fury
(11) Palm Of Jumeirah
(6) Round Two
Suggested Bet – Vintage Star (EW) small
Race 10
Competitive race to finish the meeting, (5) Hypernova has found good form recently, he drops in grade today after finishing 4th last time but was within 1L of the winner. He can get back in his runs so if the track is even, he will be well suited. (9) Nicish looks more likely to settle forwards in the run from barrier 3 and she has been in super form, if the track is favouring on speed types, she may be better set up that rivals. (4) Riche D’amour was an eye catcher 1st up and wasn’t far away from them last time in a stronger race, he could be better suited dropping back down to an easier level here today. (7) Speedtail has run into the placings in his last two starts, he looks close to a breakthrough after a strong run last time up in grade.
Selections:
(5) Hypernova
(9) Nicish
(4) Riche D’amour
(7) Speedtail
Suggested Bet – No bet, want to see the track conditions late.
