Betsy’s Set: Sandown

• Third time in a week we are racing on the Sandown Hillside track.
• Rail out 6m, having been out 3m at most recent meeting on Saturday.
• Those on speed have been advantaged in recent meetings.
• Northerly winds blowing into their faces may have an impact on leaders/those facing the breeze down the back straight – monitor as the meeting goes on.

Meeting Overview:

• Tricky meeting with a couple of those at the top of the market I initially liked firming up significantly, to the point where I can’t suggest they are value.
• Think there’s potential value in the quaddie: 3,4,7/3,10/2,3,5,6,11/2,4,5,7.

The stats that matter:

• Matt Cumani is going at 21% from his last 100 runners at a healthy PoT of 30.9%.
• Phillip Stokes is another in-form trainer, he’s striking at 21% as well with a PoT of 17.9%.
• Ethan Brown is the hot jockey at the moment with 22 winners from his last 100 rides.

Race 1

(6) Proficient hasn’t been missed in early markets but she’s clearly the horse to beat on debut. This daughter of Lonhro is a real speedster. She led her rivals by a space in a recent Pakenham jump-out, running good time for the morning. Even going back to her trial when with James Cummings at Flemington back in April she also showed good toe and, importantly, ability. She can bounce on the bunny from gate three and will take a stack of catching.(4) Final Moment has trialled up OK for her return. She was good in a reasonably rated 1000m race first up at Cranbourne last campaign and a repeat of that will see her hard to beat here.

(7) Smoke Screen didn’t seem to get 1200m on debut last campaign. She has been working to the line strongly in jump-outs and if they overdo it up front, she will be charging at them late. The 1000m here seems more suitable than 1200m on debut.

Selections:
(6) Proficient
(4) Final Moment
(7) Smoke Screen
(5) Path To Profit

Betting suggestion: Well enough found (6) Proficient, but with the wind at her back from the spring chute it’s hard to see her being caught.

Race 2

(5) Jaguar Paw is horribly drawn in gate one! He was slow out on debut and had never been that well out in jump-outs prior – he can’t afford to be tardy from the pole draw on Wednesday. He was most unlucky at that debut, badly held up for much of the straight before flashing late – with even luck think he wins that. The step from 1100m to 1400m is ideal. Think he’s the horse to beat with even luck, but the map is sticky.(7) Sulek showed talent in jump-outs prior to his debut. He, too, was slow out at his only racetrack start but worked to the line well, despite wanting to lay in late. That was a race dominated closer the inside and nearer the speed – he was the best of the backmarkers. The step to 1400m is ideal. Unlike Jaguar Paw, Sulek had shown good gate speed in jump-outs prior to his debut, so back him to be more forward in the run. Like the wide draw for him, too, as he can take his time coming across.

The toppy, (1) Paramount Plus trialled well prior to a solid first-up run at Sale – that has been a pretty good form race to date. He raced like a horse who would appreciate more ground, and that’s exactly what he gets here with the step to 1400m.

(10) Duntulm Lass is a filly I’ve always had plenty of time for. Liked her first-up run at Sale in a strong maiden and she should get a soft run from the gate.

Selections:
(1) Paramount Plus
(5) Jaguar Paw
(7) Sulek
(10) Duntulm Lass

Betting suggestion: Could have something small E/W (1) Paramount Plus at $11.

Race 3

Very little speed in the race. Suspect (7) Siesta may lead. (5) Enamorada won’t be far away. They shouldn’t break any records.This looks (5) Enamorada’s race to lose, but the market hasn’t missed her! She was backed as if unbeatable on debut, and she proved exactly that, winning by six lengths in quick time for the day (quickest of the 1200m races that meeting). She has always shown ability in jump-outs without being let off the chain, but once Ethan Brown let her go she quickened down nicely. The step to 1300m won’t worry her and being a big mare the wide open expanses of Sandown Hillside suit. She’s drawn for a good run. All that said, I think she’s now over-bet at $1.90 and I’m just ever so slightly wary of her having been set for that debut and whether she might rate down a touch here.

(2) Sea Poem has been a different horse since the blinkers went on two starts back. She’s a horse that has always shown above average ability in jump-outs and early in her career, but she struggled early in this campaign. The blinkers went on at Bairnsdale and she impressed, then backed it up with another strong win at Sale last start. She should stay within striking distance with the moderate tempo and can finish hard late.(3) Climb The Ladder is seven weeks between runs – which is a concern – but his best is good enough to be in the finish of a race like this.

Selections:
(5) Enamorada
(2) Sea Poem
(3) Climb The Ladder
(7) Siesta

Betting suggestion: (5) Enamorada the horse to beat but I can’t dive in at the current price – she looks a touch over-bet.

Race 4

Small field. Suspect (7) Acta Non Verba leads.(3) Presser should come across and sit outside.Presser is flying this campaign. He was strong in a good form race at Caulfield last time out and his ratings have been consistently good enough to win this race. Just hope they are positive from the gate, as at peak fitness don’t think he wants to get into a sit-sprint.

(4) Shockletz is probably the best horse in the race. She’s a promising stayer and while she will be better over further, she showed a good turn of foot (4th best last 400m split of the meeting) to win over 1300m first up last campaign. She has jumped-out well enough and if she’s within 2-3L at the top of the straight she can run over the top. Acta Non Verba is fit and racing well. With the claim down to 52.5kg and a soft lead he could be hard to catch.

Selections:
(3) Presser
(4) Shockletz
(7) Acta Non Verba
(6) Mr Vivaci

Betting suggestion: No real interest.

Race 5

Another race that doesn’t look to have a lot of pressure. Suspect (10) Seethru leads from (8) The Printer and maybe (7) Mercante, who can be more forward.The market has identified Seethru in early betting and I think he’s the one that opened over the odds. He comes out of a strong race where he was able to fend off subsequent winner Shiny New Deel only to be knocked off by Flying Valley. His best runs have been when he’s up on speed, dictating to his rivals, and this setup gives him a great opportunity to do that.

(3) Zambardo is the danger. He got a strong tempo to suit at Sale last time out but was still good there in winning. He should arguably be unbeaten this time in and the 1800m is spot on. May need a bit of luck from the low draw, but will be in the finish if the breaks fall his way. Think there’s only two winning hopes.

Selections):
(10) Seethru
(3) Zambardo
(1) Emphasize
(11) Wealdstone

Betting suggestion: Price gone now on (10) Seethru, but if he drifts and there’s no disadvantage being on speed come race five then could look at backing him again.

Race 6

First thing I’ll say on the race is I think (12) Steel Trap is hugely under the odds at $3.30. Blinkers go on which may assist, but she was bog average first up for the new stable and needs to improve significantly.Think the best of (5) Beautantes is as good as anything in this race can produce. His 1400m win on a firm deck back in November last year rated through the roof, and his performance in an unsuitable race down the straight at Flemington last start was OK. He maps perfectly here – which is key – and at a big price can run a race.

Tricky gate, but (2) Bon Mistress can run a race fresh. Two preps back she was a terrific first-up/1400m winner in a high rating race at Ballarat. She has trialled well leading into this campaign, suggesting she’s ready to run a big race fresh.

Forgiving of (11) Bronte Beach’s first up run where she never looked comfortable in the going. This mare showed terrific talent in her first two campaigns, but given how lightly raced she is there’s clearly challenges getting her to the sports. She has jumped-out strongly between runs and I’d expect her to improve here.(3) Sneaky Sunrise maps well but would’ve liked to see her trial just a touch better. (8) British Poet is another with a genuine winning hope.

Selections:
(5) Beautantes
(2) Bon Mistress
(11) Bronte Beach
(3) Sneaky Sunrise

Betting suggestion: Having a couple of small plays on roughies (5) Beautantes and (2) Bon Mistress. Go wide in the quaddie.

Race 7

(5) Omamori probably leads. Suspect (2) Autumnheat presses forward from the deep.Omamori got a picnic in front last time, which flattered his win a touch, but there was a big gap to third and Mawhera – who he beat – had been racing consistently well. He’s progressive, from a good stable and has as good a jockey on board as you could have (Ethan Brown) which are all ticks. I just can’t get him as short as the market getting onto a dry track for the first time.

(6) Callawadda is racing very well this campaign. He beat a moderate field at Bendigo last start but did it with some authority. Like the map for him here and think he will be strong late.

(7) Male Model is better drawn out, so like the wide draw for him. Has a NSW apprentice coming down to ride – Madeline Owen – who is coming off a good day in the saddle at Grafton today. Look, this bloke is a query at the 2400m, but he races like he’s a chance of getting it, and he’s certainly got the talent to win a race like this.

Selections:
(7) Male Model
(6) Callawadda
(5) Omamori
(2) Autumnheat

Betting suggestion: Really tricky. Going wide in the quaddie, could have something very small on (7) Male Model and (6) Callawadda if horses are making ground.