Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 No.2 Bold Strike (Best Bet) – Forgive last run pattern, maps to settle closer and looks over the odds.
Race 2 No.3 Loud Charlie (Next Best) – Clear top rater and expected to firm on raceday.
Race 7 No.5 Yukaina – Explosive maiden win and looks a highly progressive type.
Race by race overview
Race 1 – Sportsbet BlackBook Handicap (2400m):
(2) Politely Dun finished off strongly at Flemington in a genuinely run race, backing up quickly from his run against American Wolf the week prior.
(3) Eagle Angel made the running at Flemington last start and raised the white flag quickly once pressure was applied. This race is almost devoid of speed and he should be able to control proceedings up front, which heavily favours him. I’ve priced him slightly shorter than the market.
(6) No Rumours lacks gate speed and is likely to be dictated to from barrier one. He’s caught the eye in both runs this preparation, but I’d prefer to see him in a race with more pace.
Selections:
(2) Politely Dun
(3) Eagle Angel
(6) No Rumours
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2 – Thoroughbred Club of Australia Plate (1300m):
(3) Loud Charlie was beaten by Asakura, who has since hinted at Stakes-class ability. He rates clearly on top, and I can’t seem to understand why he’s not favourite. I’d expect him to firm significantly on raceday.
(5) The Benchmark raced wide without cover at Pakenham, but that race rated particularly poorly overall. I’ll be looking to be against the form coming out of it.
(4) Saludar also comes through that Pakenham race and was comfortably beaten. Begg is excellent at improving horses quickly, but I’m prepared to risk him.
(2) Cannae has trialled as though he possesses ability and is aided by Damian Lane taking the ride.
Selections:
(3) Loud Charlie
(5) The Benchmark
(4) Saludar
(2) Cannae
Suggested Bet: (3) Loud Charlie (Next Best Bet)
Race 3 – Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Handicap (1600m):
(5) Dane On Tour has endured a muddled preparation, winning first-up before being largely uncompetitive in three subsequent starts. She’s been better than the bare form suggests and has previously raced at a level that would win a race of this quality.
(1) Enchanted Jenni has been consistently racing at this level throughout the preparation. Though there’s no upside left in her, I wouldn’t have thought, and 6/4 looks too short.
(6) Two Sigma has been racing well for Reece Goodwin this preparation and can acquit himself well again.
(4) Indian Jewel is aided by a positive jockey switch, but I’m happy to risk her at the current odds.
Selections:
(5) Dane On Tour
(1) Enchanted Jenni
(6) Two Sigma
(4) Indian Jewel
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4 – Sportsbet Fast Form Plate (1000m):
(1) Bel Mezyaan has trialled nicely ahead of his debut. Jerome Hunter hasn’t had much luck with debutants, having not trained a debut winner in the past 12 months, but this is a weak race and the horse looks to have some talent.
(10) Life After Love ran to a new peak first-up, racing on speed in the same farcical race Lightwatch debuted in. If he holds that form, his market position is justified.
(9) Headbanger has had excuses in both runs for Begg but has nonetheless been disappointing. He’s trialled impressively since, though I’d prefer to see that translated to race day before taking inside 3/1.
Selections:
(1) Bel Mezyaan
(10) Life After Love
(9) Headbanger
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5 – Stow Storage Solutions Handicap (1000m):
(3) Yes We Are made a strong impression first-up, winning at Sale under a hold. The time was fast, he controlled the race, and it looked as though plenty was left in reserve. He’s fairly priced for now, but I’ll be watching the market closely.
(4) Symphony Of Colour resumes off a long layoff for Niki O’Shea, who is yet to train a winner. He has talent on his day, but I’m unsure whether this is the right scenario for him. Damian Lane helps.
(8) Angel Ladder has trialled well and has previously shown enough pace to lead in Stakes grade. From barrier two, he should find the front and be there for a while.
Selections:
(3) Yes We Are
(4) Symphony Of Colour
(8) Angel Ladder
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6 – Sportsbet More Places Handicap (1400m):
(2) Bold Strike had no intention of winning last start, restrained to the rear before finishing off well relative to the field. He’s previously shown early speed, and it wouldn’t surprise if Whearty uses that here to hold a prominent position. I price him closer to 6/4.
(3) Godtfred Kirk is clearly talented but lacks early pace. He resumed well, though at the current prices I lean towards Bold Strike.
(10) Sky Watcher won well in a strongly run race at Pakenham. He was completely unfancied, which raises some queries, but he’s lightly raced.
Selections:
(2) Bold Strike
(3) Godtfred Kirk
(10) Sky Watcher
Suggested Bet: (2) Bold Strike (Best Bet)
Race 7 – ive > Handicap (1300m):
(5) Yukaina has been well supported since markets opened, and rightly so after dismantling a Maiden field at Colac. It was a lowly Maiden, but the time was scintillating and the win authoritative. He may be an Australian Guineas hopeful.
(1) Jamesjohno is a nice horse and has previously run to the required level, but he runs into a highly progressive favourite. If Yukaina fails to take the expected step, Jamesjohno can capitalise.
(2) King Tut raced to a high level in his first preparation, culminating in a fifth behind Flying Valley and Trapdoor. He may be vulnerable to fitter, improving types.
(3) Rock Them Jools will be restrained to the rear and should run on well.
Selections:
(5) Yukaina
(1) Jamesjohno
(2) King Tut
(3) Rock Them Jools
Suggested Bet: (5) Yukaina
Race 8 – Sportsbet Race Replays Handicap (1800m):
(1) Taka Speed has won his past two starts and should get every conceivable chance again. He hasn’t quite returned to the peak performance he produced at start two, but looks primed to do so here.
(2) Waco Kid continues to improve and ran to a new peak last start. That figure is good enough to win again.
(7) Mr Bannock finished off sharply at Geelong and looks well suited at this trip second-up. He may, however, be one run away.
(5) Desert Anthem finished well behind Waco Kid and can improve second-up.
Selections:
(1) Taka Speed
(2) Waco Kid
(7) Mr Bannock
(5) Desert Anthem
Suggested Bet: No Bet
