Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 – Backing No.1 Rip Current
Race 3 – Backing No.5 The Flying Popov (BEST)
Race 8 – Backing No.1 Sound Of Jura 1 x 3 E/W
Turf Talk:
- Seymour is a beautifully laid out track with a generous home straight.
- The sprint chute off the top of the straight is used up to 1300m, with only the home bend to navigate.
- The 1600m start provides a long run down the back straight before turning.
- Warm conditions are expected and the track should dry quickly. Northerly winds will blow into runners’ faces up the back straight and provide a tailwind in the home straight.
- The rail is out 8m, having been 4m at the January meeting. At that meeting only one horse won from worse than third in running.
- Expect a slight on-speed advantage, but monitor how the pattern develops.
Stats that matter:
- Daniel Stackhouse has ridden 20 winners from his last 100 rides at a POT of +33.6%.
- Anthony & Sam Freedman remain in strong form, striking at 25% from their last 100 runners and an outstanding 33.3% at Seymour.
- John McArdle is another stable in form, operating at a 25% strike rate from his last 100 runners.
Race 2:
(1) Rip Current is a bit raw but looks to have a good chance on debut. He was slow away in his first jump-out this campaign but mustered quickly and worked home well. His latest hit-out at Pakenham was far more professional – jumped evenly, settled on speed and wasn’t knocked around when second. The 1200m on debut looks ideal and having Damian Lane aboard is a big tick. If he begins cleanly, he should run a big race.
(4) So Star was solid on debut at this track in a handy Maiden. The query is the 37 day gap between runs, but he will roll forward and make his own luck on speed.
(7) Oceanella was plain in what looked a moderate Maiden here last time. She’s had her chances, but the drop back to 1200m could help.
Suggested Bet: Backing Rip Current
Race 3:
(5) The Flying Popov has had no luck in two runs this prep. He was well beaten on paper at Geelong last start but with even luck he likely runs second. It was a similar story first-up at Pakenham. Damian Lane takes over, he rises to 1400m and draws a good gate – everything points to a peak performance. With even luck, he looks the winner in what is a moderate Maiden.
Suggested Bet: Very keen on The Flying Popov – black figures = a good price.
Race 8:
(2) Divazou has been flying since joining the Delphin stable and can roll along on speed, but his last win at Albury may have been flattered by a strong on-speed bias. There’s plenty of pressure here and he could be forced to work early, so happy to oppose at the price.
(1) Sound Of Jura may improve second-up but has run well fresh before. His recent Bendigo trial over 1300m should have him primed for this. He’ll relish a strong tempo and still has upside in a race where many have reached their mark.
(6) Cashout also has upside. The wide draw makes things tricky with speed underneath, but blinkers go on after breaking his maiden last start.
Suggested Bet: 1×3 E/W Sound Of Jura at around $10
