Summary of best bets:
Best bet – Race 4 No.1 Top Of The Ridge
Next best – Race 6 No.4 Allegedly
Turf Talk
- Rail position is set to be +3m W/Post-400m, True remainder for this meeting
- Clear weather is forecast for race day and the lead up, so the track is expected to present as a Good 4
- In previous meetings with a similar condition set up, the track has played fairly. Majority of runners have won with cover and likely come away from the rails in the straight.
Stats
- Jockey Jake Toeroek recently returned from injury and is finding form, he has always performed well at this track with a winning strike rate of 16.8% from 422 rides at a positive POT of +6%
- Shane & Cassie Oxlade have two runners engaged here at their home track, they have a winning strike rate of 18% here with a POT of +24.5%
Race 1
Competitive Maiden level race kicking off today’s program.
The recent form of (7) Splash Of White has been strong prior to last start at Gawler. He raced on speed and faded out late, so dropping back in distance suits and he looks every chance to control the tempo of the race.
(3) Galileo Gold showed improvement when resuming at Murray Bridge, he hit the line strongly so rising in trip should suit.
(1) Black Bugatti resumes here for a new stable today, his form in NSW was in some decent level races, he could transfer that form here but prefer to see him go around first.
(10) Secret Owl was well supported last start but disappointed, can improve in this race with even luck.
Selections:
(7) Splash Of White
(3) Galileo Gold
(1) Black Bugatti
(10) Secret Owl
Suggested Bet – No bet, hard to split these given patchy recent form
Race 2
Looks a race that is going to be run at a quick speed in the early stages here.
(7) Heat Of The Night has been constistent running into the placings in her last two starts, she looks the runner most likely set up to swoop over the top if they overdo it out in front.
(2) Hasta La Wizard has had a lot of chances now, but showed good improvement last time out at Bordertown, he can go close again with the right run and maps to get a good position.
(10) Terminal Shock maps well to the inside part of the track and will likely appreciate rising in trip here 3rd up now.
(3) Me Name’s Boris can get to a leading position and put some speed into the race, if he can control the tempo he could prove hard to catch late.
Selections:
(7) Heat Of The Night
(2) Hasta La Wizard
(10) Terminal Shock
(3) Me Name’s Boris
Suggested Bet – No bet, low confidence with how this race map shapes
Race 3
(8) Tan Tat Gold’s recent form was solid prior to his last start when he appeared to get too far back in the run. He can bounce back here with a better race map and gets in light at the weights.
(12) Goochee Gal is another runner who gets in light at the weights, she is likely to take up the speed and race prominently here.
Good form has come out of the last start race (1) Bocheeva contested and ran into the placings. Previous to that he was solid here in a stronger race.
(5) Hasta La Oinkers looks suited rising up to a staying trip having hit the line well last time out.
Selections:
(8) Tan Tat Gold
(12) Goochee Gal
(1) Bocheeva
(5) Hasta La Oinkers
Suggested Bet – No bet, open race over a staying trip, prefer to stay out
Race 4
Another race here today that maps to likely have a fast tempo.
(1) Top Of The Ridge comes in here fresh having had a let up, this race maps slightly easier than his previous runs and the inside barrier sets him up well, can fire here.
(5) Grinzinger Ace ran behind Top Of The Ridge earlier in this prep but since then has found good form, including two recent wins prior to a close 2nd. He is light in the weights here after an apprentice claim which suits.
(2) Royal Fox looks a likely improver dropping back in grade from his previous run, the 1600m trip also likely to suit given he has won four times over this trip.
(4) Hidden Bounty won two starts ago at Naracoorte before running midfield in a strong form race last start, she can be an improver here down in grade.
Selections:
(1) Top Of The Ridge
(5) Grinzinger Ace
(2) Royal Fox
(4) Hidden Bounty
Suggested Bet – (1) Top Of The Ridge (Win)
Race 5
(1) Flying Assassin has been moderate in his most recent runs this prep but is dropping in grade today and remaining out at a staying trip that suits, expect he can be an improver in a suitable race.
(5) Bush Inference was a winner two starts back and now returns to a track where he has had good previous success (6:2-0-1), he looks well suited here.
(3) The Tank looks the likely leader of the race and is down in grade, he sets up well if he can take control of the race tempo out in front.
(6) I Love This Song gets in here with a light weight and can be prominent, with a moderate tempo he will be in a good position in run.
Selections:
(1) Flying Assassin
(5) Bush Inference
(3) The Tank
(6) I Love This Song
Suggested Bet – No bet, hard to have confidence in these staying affairs that look even on paper.
Race 6
(4) Allegedly was well supported to win over this track/distance last start but never really got going late in the race, perhaps didn’t appreciate a soft track and will be suited here on a drier track and he still has an impressive record at this track/ distance (5:2-0-1).
(2) Give Some Lip is dropping in grade from his most recent runs, looks better suited in this grade but is likely to get back in the run so needs an even track.
(3) Rokabye Warrior is in consistent form and maps as the likely leader, he could prove hard to catch if given a soft run out if front.
(5) Hateech has a good record here over this track/distance so can improve on recent form with a set up that likely suits.
Selections:
(4) Allegedly
(2) Give Some Lip
(3) Rokabye Warrior
(5) Hateech
Suggested Bet – (4) Allegedly (Win)
Race 7
(4) Florey resumes here off a long spell, she has been 1st up at this track twice previously to register a win and a placing, she was competitive in stronger races last prep and this looks an ideal kick off point of the prep.
(9) Vexatious Choice looks likely to be better suited down in grade from his two most previous runs, drawn to be prominent in the run.
(2) Taking Omaha looks a likely leader and can take up a prominent position in running.
(10) Exotic Dancer was solid when resuming to finish in the placings and maps as the leader here, but will have to rely on luck from a wide barrier, if she can cross quickly with no issue she gets a good chance but that is the risk
Selections:
(4) Florey
(9) Vexatious Choice
(2) Taking Omaha
(10) Exotic Dancer
Suggested Bet – No bet, competitive race to finish will watch for late market moves on Florey though
