| Best Bets | Race | Horse |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | R4 | No.5 Seneschal |
| Best Value | R7 | No.2 Miss Joelene |
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Strong horses track this one.
- Like them to be fit and not hit the front too soon with the extra long straight.
Stats that matter:
- Sound like a broken record but what the Munce stable is doing is near unbelievable. 155 runners this season and striking 24.5% and with a ROI of +21%. Think of all the stayers and horses needing runs, to maintain that strike rate across 155 runners. It’s amazing.
- Ryan Maloney has a great book of rides and a chance of a few winners here. He has ridden 32 of his last 50 into the top 3 somewhere. In great form and getting good rides.
Race by race overview
Lottery to start the day.I always favour the raced brigade but rarely bet in the early two year old races.
(12) I Am That Girl is very well bred, was a bit plain on debut but won a recent trial when ridden more quietly. May go back from the wide gate but that makes it tough.(7) Scartoon the other raced horse. Was on speed and gave a great kick on debut. If she repeats that effort she will look the winner for a long way.
(2) Boots won a trial by as far as you can kick your hat. Showed good speed but accelerated when asked and put a bigger gap in them. Ready made 2 year old I’m sure Kendrick has held back for this day on the home deck.
11-4-6 all trialled well so watch the market. Tough gig to start and nothing would surprise me.
Selections:
(12) I Am That Girl
(7) Scartoon
(2) Boots
(11) Phere The Warrego
Suggested Bet: No bet
Mr Buster coming out opens this right up.
(2) Cavalry Man had been consistent for the new Qld stable but just plugging along. The old ‘Qld plunge’ got it right and it looked like it was Subzero last start in a 3.7L drubbing. A repeat of that can win here for sure.(11) Sun Worshipper was 2nd to him last start and meets him 2.5kg better, so some hope here.
(4) Counter had been flying this prep, scratched from a race he was a moral in at the GC to race last weekend and pulled up lame. Best form a chance, but how do you back up here?
(7) Wowzino might be next best but this is harder. Can Cavalry Man reproduce the last start effort?
Selections:
(2) Cavalry Man
(11) Sun Worshipper
(4) Counter
(7) Wowzino
Suggested Bet: No bet
A half dozen of these went around against each other a fortnight ago at Eagle Farm over 1600m. Won’t be much between them again here.
(6) Rhuvaal was the unlucky runner. Has a nice big stride and was never really clear to let rip and checked late. 3kg claim to help again and is in good form.
(5) Tajawal was huge resuming in that race. Genuine stayer and 1800m here is suitable.
(16) Thinkhardandfast is the other out of the race. Got through and strong late at the 3rd run for the Currie stable. Won or placed in 9 of 10 and can win with luck.
(2) Morning Sun is no star but at least brings a different formline and in a good yard.
If (19) Jenni Moreese gets a run she can be the fly in the ointment. Rock hard fit now and don’t mind that Mazis form.
Selections:
(6) Rhuvaal
(5) Tajwaal
(16) Thinkhardandfast
(19) Jenni Moreese
Suggested Bet: No bet
A good betting race this. A stack of chances and some leading ones have to do it from out wide.
I was against (5) Seneschal last start but he bolted in. Was a plain race but could get good confidence from the win. Sunny Coast feature race day and Kendrick’s have a habit of improving at these.
(12) Araletta will push forward from the gate and be in it for a long way. Just lacks a little class but this is the right grade for her.
(13) She Ours seems to always start under what she should and she has only won 1 of 11. Improves 3rd up, some hope but probably unders again.
(15) Trapedo hadn’t done much at all in previous preps but in career best form this time in work and some hope.
(20) Waku Waku was one I didn’t really rate but it does seem to be on the rise and was a nice winner in an easier race last start.
Selections:
(5) Seneschal
(15) Trapedo
(20) Waku Waku
(13) She Ours
Suggested Bet: E/W (5) Seneschal
One of the more interesting races and should be a great punting affair. Just average speed but all should get their chance.
(2) Brave Monarch is the horse they all have to beat, not just because the jock and trainers are having one of the more unbelievable and sustained good runs I can ever remember. He has won his last two and looked better every run. Maps great from a good draw and sure to be good the last 100m.
I have a small piece of (5) Another Cashie and he is a good one. From a good family and a heap of upside. Just a big baby still though and will be a better horse next prep. I hope they push forward and put him into the race.
It was only a Maiden win last start but I loved the way (4) Provoker went about it. Picked them up and simply ran away from them. Loved the effort through the line and has more wins in store, where do they land from the gate? Sit outside leader?
Sneaky good placement of (12) Krumac with Dolan on to carry 52.5kg. No doubt 1600m would be better, but a tough 1400m with no weight and look out late, can win.
(3) Ha’penny Hatch just keeps turning up and getting some type of prizemoney in these races.
Selections:
(2) Brave Monarch
(5) Another Cashie
(12) Krumac
(4) Provoker
Suggested Bet: Trifecta- 2,5 — 2,4,5,12 — 2,3,4,5,12 ($18 for 100%)
Lots of winning chances and a lot just making up the numbers.
No doubt (1) Warby should love this big track. Harder race last start and was fantastic there. Up 7.5kg here in easier race. Just hard to line it up. Will be strong late and in the finish.
(2) Pocket Full went over the line with Viminele last start, 3rd up here and can be in this for a long way.
(8) Naval Trader has good ability but has mixed form in recent times. Drifter last start but the effort was good. Always a chance in a race like this.
I’d be keen (16) Rock Hard Love with rain or better gate. Is a get-back horse, so the gate is horrible. Just 52kg is a huge plus here but needs things to go his way in the run.
Selections:
(1) Warby
(8) Naval Trader
(16) Rock Hard Love
(2) Pocket Full
Suggested Bet: No bet
Fair to say they’d have hoped for a better Cup field.
(2) Miss Joelene is the class but does she need another run? Condition gave way the last 50m fresh and will no doubt improve off that run. Big weight, but I feel they can land in front of midfield and be right in this.
(6) Walsh Bay won 6 out of 7 in an incredible preparation and to 2400m last start. 39 days between runs, is it a genius move to stay in work or being greedy? Trial was plain but this sets up well for her.
(7) Victory Win has run well all three runs this prep and in career best form off two wins. 54.5kg is a fair weight and gets his chance with Thompson on top.A couple down the bottom that could run well with no weight.
Have always liked (13) Keitel but didn’t think he was a miler, but he put the writing on the wall two runs back and then won at the mile last start. That was easier grade but drops 5.5kg here.
Selections:
(2) Miss Joelene
(7) Victory Win
(13) Keitel
(6) Walsh Bay
Suggested Bet: E/W (2) Miss Joelene $9
Gollan with 7 of the 16 acceptors is amazing stuff. A lot depends on what this track is doing, inside fast or outside better? I’m assuming inside is OK and wide gates not ideal over this trip.
If (1) Hidden Wealth brings his best he just wins. I have no idea how to catch the horse even though he wins nearly every 2nd start. Runs well and then throws in a doozy. Market might help us but he’s in beautifully at the weights.
(5) Nettuno is one I have fell for way too many times but again, on his day, he is great. Won 3 of 6 on this track and have to respect.
I’m a big fan of (8) Belegato but I didn’t like the most recent trial. Looked to be head gear on but I don’t know what. I don’t want to over think it so his best is good enough here.
1000m and speed on is what (11) Hurts So Good thrives on. Has improved each run this prep and looks to peak for this.
(13) Party For Two is another Gollan and had won her last three on the trot. Will push forward and be in this a long way.
Selections:
(1) Hidden Wealth
(8) Belegato
(5) Nettuno
(13) Party For Two
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Hidden Wealth
Gollan with five accepted here makes it tough.
(1) Impervious has won or placed in all seven career runs to date. I don’t like fillies giving weight to the boys but she has class and recent trial leading was very good.
(2) Foreign Press went over the line nose to nose with her in that trial and she has won or placed in 5 of 6. She is a very nice one and just needs a good ride from the gate.
(5) Forgotten Spirit had heat stress resuming and a forgive. Dominant win last start at EF and draws the perfect gate here. Just another Gollan chance and might have to follow whichever one they back.
(11) Champagne Lane has missed the start in 2 of 3 runs but has had the class to win. She is still learning and may need next prep to show her best. I just feel she has drawn perfect and if she jumps OK, could land 4-5th and get a great run here. Last start effort was way better than it looked on a fast leader’s track. Wanted to tip on top but thought it would open twice the price it did.
(8) Get Ready Lass showed ability last prep and ran well in good races. Nice trial win leading into this and gets Thompson on to help.
Can’t knock (9) Seveer. Last couple of runs were really good last prep and might be a better horse this prep.
Selections:
(2) Foreign Press
(11) Champagne Lane
(1) Impervious
(8) Get Ready Lass
Suggested bets: Small E/W (2) Foreign Press
What a way to finish the day!
(12) Cosmo Centaurus has better form over a shorter trip but has always had ability and the two runs back have been rock solid.
I like the freshen up for (18) Aldolfito. Had been all around the money this prep until a flop last start. 5 weeks between runs, maps midfield and like the fact he can be strong late, might be value in exotics.
(4) Bews was huge fresh and a repeat of that can win here, just have a few trust issues. This stable is hard to beat on the Sunny Coast and maybe the 49 day freshen has been aimed at this? Can’t believe the $61 opening price.
(1) Town Crier can sit on speed, is consistent and just has to carry the weight.Another half dozen winning hopes and wide in the quaddie here.
Selections:
(4) Bews
(18) Aldolfito
(12) Cosmo Centaurus
(1) Town Crier
Suggested bets: Small E/W bet (4) Bews
