Best bet: Race 6 No.6 Curse It
Value bet: Race 7 No.4 Grey Ice
Two-bet play: Race 4 backing No.3 Harmonett and No.9 Gentle Steel
Turf talk:
- Caulfield Heath track has raced brilliantly since it was introduced.
- Like any fair track there’s a natural advantage to horses on speed, but talented enough conveyances can make ground with the right race shape.
- The sprint chute is similar to the main track, with long runs down the side before they start turning.
- Light southerly winds should advantage horses on speed.
Key stats:
- Lloyd Kennewell is striking at 21% from his last 100 starters.
- Anthony and Sam Freedman are going at 23% from their last 100, they have also had 36 runners on the Heath track for 11 winners!
- Ethan Brown has ridden 21 winners from his last 100 rides. He has also had initial success on the Heath track – so have confidence backing him on Monday.
Race 1
Speed might come from (8) Camegitchee and (6) Shaw Can Fly. Even tempo at best.
Can poke a few holes in the favourites.
(5) Jimmy Beans was visually impressive on debut at Sandown and the step from 1500m to 1800m should suit. That said, I thought was flattered by the very strong tempo in a moderate Maiden on debut and seems very aggressively priced at $1.75. Can win, but under the odds, in my humble.
(3) Nothin’ Wong Here showed some ability last campaign, knocked off as a $1.70 fave when last at the sports. Was given a SERIOUS send along in a recent 1200m jump-out at Kyneton when able to hold off his rivals, but didn’t like the way he wanted to lay in late when shown the whip. 1800m first up suits, but another who seems under the odds at $3.
(6) Shaw Can Fly looks value at $11. Did nothing at his only campaign but the stable weren’t going that well at the time. Stable have since hit a purple patch of form and I like his two jump-outs and trial leading into this. He can give plenty of cheek.
Selections:
(6) Shaw Can Fly
(5) Jimmy Beans
(4) Sensational Ruler
(3) Notin Wong Here
Suggested bet: Backing Shaw Can Fly – double figures appeals.
Race 2
Have a healthy opinion of (3) Xtra Rush. Has always jumped-out nicely and built a strong picket fence last campaign. Plenty of good winning form behind him, especially from his first two wins. Trial two back was very good, then went around without his blinkers last Monday, like the quick back up off that performance. Horse to beat.
Winkers went back on (8) O Cara Mia at Warwick Farm last start and she put in a putrid run. Assume she is part of Ed Cummings’ new Flemington stable, so no surprise to see her here. Based on first two runs this campaign she can win. Given five weeks to get over the horrific showing last start. Willo up, maps well, down in the weights – a lot to like.
(4) Star Buyer had no luck last start. (2) Single Choice has some talent but off one trial I am happy to see him this campaign before getting too excited.
Selections:
(3) Xtra Rush
(8) O Cara Mia
(4) Star Buyer
(2) Single Choice
Suggested bet: Don’t want to over-do it, but could have something on Xtra Rush and save on O Cara Mia.
Race 3
This is a quality race.
Speed looks (6) Big Star off the pole, (4) Rattle’n’roll, maybe (2) Electric Elvis. (3) Yes Yoshi right there.
She will probably settle last, but with the right run I reckon (7) Dancingonmyown is a big price at $18. Importantly, she trialled well around this track on Jan 29, making good late ground under her own steam. First up win at Wodonga last preparation was very good and 1200m fresh suits better than the 1100m on that occasion. Will be strong late when others are wilting.
Love what (3) Yes Yoshi did when winning on debut at Sale. He broke the track record there, but has to be put in the context that three track records fell in successive races (1000/1100/1200m). He’s still very raw and does a lot wrong this bloke, but he’s a serious talent. Ethan Brown taking over is no negative (in form Teo Nugent rode on debut). Knock is he’s 32 days between runs, but Charlotte is a trainer that seems to space runs OK. Horse to beat, but could see greenness beating him.
(5) Savitri has always shown talent at the jump-outs and her one racetrack outing was a very good win at Warrnambool. She was on speed there, but I’d expect she’s ridden quietly here, looking to finish off. Jump-outs/trials have been standard for a Mitch Freedman galloper. Maybe want a touch further in time.
(1) Wiltshire Square has been a 1000m horse so far in her career, so 1200m is a query. That said, she’s at peak fitness now and is racing well this campaign.
Selections:
(7) Dancingonmyown
(3) Yes Yoshi
(5) Savitri
(1) Wiltshire Square
Suggested bet: Backing Dancingonmyown EW at the $18
Race 4
Good speed. (1) Celerity & (2) Croatian Art fight for supremacy. (8) Tuscaloosa Gem right there.
On jump-outs alone I simply have to back (9) Gentle Steel. She should tag that hot speed mentioned above and can finish over the top of them. Two jump-outs at Cranbourne this time in have been simply outstanding – she looks to have come back better than ever, and her ratings to date already have her in the finish of this.
The strong tempo should suit (3) Harmonett who can also finish over the top of them. She trialled nicely prior to her first-up win at Sandown on the Hillside and this setup favours.
(1) Celerity probably didn’t see out the 1100m last time out, back to 1000m suits.
(6) Befuddle may need the run off a 316 day spell but two jump-outs this time in have been solid enough.
Selections:
(9) Gentle Steel
(3) Harmonett
(1) Celerity
(6) Befuddle
Suggested bet: Backing Gentle Steel/Harmonett
Race 5
(7) Foxenberg, (3) Along The River and (4) Excess fight for the lead. Tempo should be strong.
(2) She’s An Artist hasn’t been around a bend since her devastating debut win at Bendigo. There’s no doubting her talent, but was a little concerned with how she laid in late at the end of last campaign, mind you was the end of 1200m. She has been quite keen in her jump-outs but the key here could be a nose roll going on, which she hasn’t worn in either hitout. Strong tempo should suit her. She’s the horse to beat, but I won’t be rushing out to take $1.60.
Probably prefer (1) Rewards and More at 1000m than 1100m, but loved a recent jump-out here on the Heath track and she will charge late.
(3) Along The River is tough and will be in it a long way, while (6) Charmed Run is going OK.
Selections:
(2) She’s An Artist
(1) Rewards and More
(3) Along The River
(6) Charmed Run
Suggested bet: Pass
Race 6
(2) Thorin, (3) Private Jumbo look to lead from (9) Chantra.
(6) Curse It got back in a moderately run 1400m race at Pakenham first-up but worked home in the best last 200m split of the meeting. A couple of horses that also made ground (less than Curse It) in All Business and Butternut Princess have since won. This bloke was only first-up and he’s still got plenty of upside having had just four starts. 1600m here is ideal, draws to get a good smother, and with even luck I think he wins.
(2) Thorin can run well on speed. Six weeks between runs but has jumped-out nicely in that time.
Thought (4) Vivacissimo was aggressively priced at $3.70 off what was just a moderate NMW last time out but she does map ideally and is at peak fitness.
Selections:
(6) Curse It
(2) Thorin
(4) Vivacissimo
(7) Just Jenni
Suggested bet: Keen on Curse It.
Race 7
Was giving (4) Grey Ice a huge chance on Saturday but they scratched to run here. Although not technically first-up, she is seven weeks between runs and two preps ago he was able to win first-up at a mile here at Caulfield, but on the main track. She had a run at Eagle Farm back on December 20 where she didn’t have the cleanest air up the straight (been a good deal of winning form to come from that race). Have liked her trials at Cranbourne leading into this and from gate four she maps for a soft run. The best of her ratings wins this and we’re getting $10 – have to bet!
(2) Nodachi trialled well prior to her last run at Caulfield where she ran well. Think she’s ready to peak third-up with Damian Lane jumping aboard – wouldn’t be surprised to see them employ more positive tactics.
(3) Stage ‘N’ Screen probably hasn’t lived up to the promise she showed early doors but she did have a few excuses last time out and she looks ready for the mile now.
(5) Macedon Rose dropped in grade last time out and was dominant, posting a good rating in the process. Should settle just behind the speed and be in this a long way.
Selections:
(4) Grey Ice
(2) Nodachi
(3) Stage ‘N’ Screen
(5) Macedon Rose
Suggested bet: Like Grey Ice – having a good bet E/W. Also having something small Nodachi at odds.
