Plan of Attack:
| Bet Type | Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | R2 | Johnny | Dominant form lines, maps perfectly, just needs to handle the dry. |
| Next Best (Place) | R5 | Heesen | Sharp in trials, returns fresh, looks a solid place play at odds. |
The Stats that Matter:
- Over the past 90 days Dylan Gibbons is striking at an impressive 20.7% with a positive POT of +25.1%.
- Richard & Will Freedman are the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, striking at 20% with a strong POT of +27.2%. They are effective with runners second and third up.
Race 1
Tricky betting race to kick off proceedings. (13) Surf’s Up has the turn of foot to win but will need a peach of a ride from Lloyd out of a sticky gate. (8) Miss Lola is a market watch; hard to get a guide off her two official trials, though the James booking is a push. (5) Hellabella peaks third-up and should offset the draw with a positive ride. The consistent (6) Marsept rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(13) Surf’s Up
(8) Miss Lola
(5) Hellabella
(6) Marsept
Race 2
Strong BM68. (7) Johnny brings dominant figures and strong form lines – he maps ideally and just needs to handle the dry. (6) Napoleonic was dynamic fresh (albeit in weaker grade) and gets McDonald from a lovely draw. (4) Siriusly Hot has had four weeks between runs (maybe a minor setback) but his first-up win was eye-catching – big odds and can bounce back. (1) Regulated Affair and (8) Ohope are also chances.
Selections:
(7) Johnny
(6) Napoleonic
(4) Siriusly Hot
(1) Regulated Affair
(8) Ohope
Suggested Bet – Johnny WIN
Race 3
Wide open 2110m contest. (5) Mama Joy went to a new level last start rising to 2100m, and from a good draw she goes on top. (1) Leaders Listen was no match for Juja Kibo last start but this grade suits better, and firmer ground helps. (3) Fioprospero is respected but looks short at $3.50 – the rise in trip is the key. (2) Majorian (last-start winner) is next best.
Selections:
(5) Mama Joy
(1) Leaders Listen
(3) Fioprospero
(2) Majorian
Race 4
(9) Winston Hills hasn’t been suited in two runs back this prep but drops in grade with 57kg and looks very well placed. (7) Shirvington made it back-to-back wins with a smart Wyong ride and again maps ideally up to 1300m. (4) Money Team was good first-up in Queensland and strips fitter; drier ground helps. (11) Hurry Miss best of the rest.
Selections:
(9) Winston Hills
(7) Shirvington
(4) Money Team
(11) Hurry Miss
Race 5
The market has hammered the Waller/McDonald combo with (11) Jellicious dominant first-up and very short at $2.00. The bet may be (5) Heesen (place) – returns off 33 weeks but has looked sharp in two trials. The gate is tricky but speed up front helps. (8) Girijaala maps well from barrier 5 and has trialled smartly. (6) Fleeting Spirit and (10) Mamushka also have claims.
Selections:
(11) Jellicious
(5) Heesen
(8) Girijaala
(6) Fleeting Spirit
(10) Mamushka
Suggested Bet – Heesen PLACE
Race 6
A very tricky end to the program, with the race changing significantly on race morning. Happy to side with (2) Island Dream now, with the stablemate coming out and James sticking, she again looks the horse to beat. (14) Exclusive Artist should roll forward from the draw, she is building nicely towards a win, and importantly keeps Lloyd aboard. (4) Soul Choice strisp fitter second up after a solid 1050m tick-over trial between runs. Look for Hyeronimus to be positive early from the draw. The well-backed (9) Frontex rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(2) Island Dream
(14) Exclusive Artist
(4) Soul Choice
(9) Frontex
