There may be no Group 1s on the program, but there is no shortage of betting appeal across the Easter Cup Day program.
The old adage, ‘group horse in a handicap’ applies to Thebelmontgangster (race 3). He toppled Observer on Australian debut after 342 days away from the racetrack. He then returned as a heavily supported favourite on Coongy Day, twenty-one days later, before being pulled up with a poor post-race recovery.
The market expected plenty of him at his second Australian start, which gave punters a hint about how highly the larger syndicates regard him. He has also looked to have come on with more time to acclimatise to Australian conditions, appearing healthy and well in three Cranbourne jump-outs.
This field is made up largely of limited horses who look destined for nothing more than this grade, and he should account for them, provided he runs to form.
By my assessment, he’s well into odds-on, and better than even money is an attractive bet.
Maintaining the theme of imported Irish gallopers, Mukhtalif makes his Australian debut for Ciaron Maher. He won his last two before crossing the equator, registering two strong performance ratings that translate very well to this grade. He returns over nine furlongs following a recent 1500-metre trial, the stable clearly signalling their intent to win his way briskly through the grades. His innate early pace should allow him to hold a prominent position, wide gate notwithstanding.
Aside from the lightly raced Engine Of War, who resumed with a peak, this field has a shortage of depth. Better than 3/1 may look overly generous in hindsight. He’s already superior to this group, with ample scope to improve.
The Elvis Thurgood Memorial serves as a fitting staging post on Terilee’s path through the grades. She was utterly dominant at Sandown, despatching a similar bunch with disdain, taking full advantage of her position when the substandard pace quickened, finishing in the third-fastest concluding 600 metres of the day.
Finally, she’s stepped beyond seven furlongs, a move I’ve long anticipated would unlock her best. Her pedigree and cadence both point squarely to a mile as her optimum.
She can again settle handily from the inside gate and remains firmly on an upward trajectory. The rest of this field is stagnant by comparison, with only Chiringita capable, in my view, of finding a new peak that can topple that of Terilee.
This year’s Easter Cup is particularly tricky; I make it 7/1 the field, though that makes it all the more compelling as a betting contest.
Quietness was underwhelming last start in the Epona Stakes, but gains blinkers here third-up for a stable that is astute at travelling their horses. She was sent away as second elect in the Coongy Cup won by Wootten Verni, who has since represented that formline handsomely.
She’ll race prominently, and based on the assumption that she recaptures her established level, she should share top billing as favourite.
Immediacy also appeals after an appalling run in the Australian Cup Prelude, where he raced wide throughout a fast-run race before giving way. With 28 days between runs, he has previously shown the ability to turn form around quickly. He must be included.
Pounding, the old warrior, is deservedly in calculations too, after a strong second in the Bairnsdale Cup. Prior to that, he closed off well in the Shaftesbury Avenue on a day when it was difficult to make sufficient ground. Group 1-placed over ten furlongs, stamina is no issue, and he can settle handily.
Suggested bets:
Race 1 – Mukhatlif
Race 3 – Thebelmontgangster
