Turf Talk:
- Rail out 9m from the 850m to the winning post, 7m the remainder. Was out 7m the entire circuit at the most recent meeting on January 12.
- Tight-turning track with a reasonably short home straight.
- As a rule, favours on-speed horses, but recent meetings here have seen horses on the fence penalised.
- Strong southerly winds (35–50km/h) will have a bearing on the meeting. This blows into their faces up the home straight.
- Really need to keep an eye on how the meeting plays out. Thinking a bit of cover could be important with that wind forecast.
Key Stats:
- Anthony & Sam Freedman are going at 23% from their last 100 runners, and have a strong strike rate of 22.6% here at Werribee.
- Ciaron Maher doesn’t muck around when sending horses here to Werribee, striking at 25%. Meanwhile the stable are going well given the big team, having had 20 winners from their last 100 runners.
- John Allen hasn’t been at his best, going at 7% from his last 100 rides, a PoT of -37.1%. He does ride Werribee quite well having had 23 winners here.
- Dean Yendall is so reliable at these sorts of meetings, he’s going at 20% from his last 100 rides and he has a 21.6% strike rate at Werribee.
- Linda Meech is going at 19% from her last 100 rides and also rides Werribee well, striking at 19.1% across her career.
Race 1:
Looks good speed engaged here with (6) Zousouth, (7) Buttercup and (13) Gold Thunder, with the latter likely leading. (10) Shahar won’t be far away.
(3) Discreet Point comes through what I think is the strongest form reference and he was down on the inferior ground when running fourth here at Werribee fresh. Only had one soft jump-out prior to that first up run, so suggest good improvement to come. Will get back, but think with good speed/strong winds, coming down the middle late might be no disadvantage.
Nice race for (5) The Botany Frog to debut. He has had several jump-outs and trials leading into this, the latest of which he won under moderate riding at Geelong. Would’ve preferred he debut at 1100m than 1000m, but the genuine tempo and a soft run off gate one will assist him. Good winning hope.
(6) Zousouth would have been pretty fit for his first-up effort when second here at Werribee, having had three jump-outs leading in. Drops back from 1114m to 1018m, which I’m not convinced will suit. That said, was good enough first up to at least figure in the finish here.
Unfortunately, (7) Buttercup couldn’t fight her way out of a paper bag, but she’s racing consistently enough in slightly weaker maidens and Meech is generally an advantage on tight-turning tracks like this.
(13) Gold Thunder has plenty of toe and few horses jump-out better than her, but at this stage she seems confined to being a ‘dawn warrior’.
Selections:
(3) Discreet Point
(5) The Botany Frog
(6) Zousouth
(7) Buttercup
Suggested Bet: Backing Discreet Point at $8 and The Botany Frog at $4.60.
Race 2:
Again looks good speed here.
(14) Frogs is going to need some luck at a key stage but he’s a fascinating runner here. Had him in my blackbook following his debut at Sandown last campaign, when surging to the line late in restricted room in what was a good form race. Has since changed stable from Emma-Lee and David Browne to Ciaron Maher and like that he kicks off at 1400m. The knock is his trials have been moderate, but they also were prior to his debut. With even luck, he can win.
Suggested Bet: Backing Frogs at $5.
Race 4:
Look two key chances in (3) Mariota and (5) Slate Ripper.
Mariota comes through what I think is clearly the strongest form reference. He hit the line well at Sale in a race dominated nearer the speed and I’d be forgiving of Yarra Valley the start prior when 8-weeks between runs and covering ground. Draws for a soft run here and this is a very weak race.
Slate Ripper has been going well without much luck all campaign. Needs a good ride early from Jett Stanley as he can easily find himself well back in the field, but with even luck in the run will be in the finish.
(11) Ginger Sweet has been most disappointing after showing some promise early doors. Has won a jump-out between runs and best would see her winning a race like this, but recent form isn’t inspiring.
Selections:
(3) Mariota
(5) Slate Ripper
(11) Ginger Sweet
Suggested Bet: Backing Mariota who has opened a huge price at $7 along with Slate Ripper at $5.50. Also playing a 3,5 quinella.
Race 7:
(7) Sunset Beauty is going to need a little bit of luck from the gate and pattern of the day will be key, but she’s the horse to beat on recent form. Do think having (5) Adki in the race will help her cause as she likes to roll along and break up a field. Comes out of a high-rating race at Sale last time out and was strong on the line there. Has raced with varying degrees of luck throughout this campaign and this is much weaker than last start. $7 looks a great price.
(8) Poetic Whisper can run well. Hit the line OK in a race that didn’t change complexion at Camperdown last time out. This is more suitable and she is a winner here. Jade Smith claims 3kg and she knows this mare well.
(2) Ricky Runs can bounce back from a wet-track failure last start. Form prior was solid. Just a little concerned with how he wanted to hang a bit in his recent jump-out, but was solid enough through the line.
Selections:
(7) Sunset Beauty
(8) Poetic Whisper
(2) Ricky Runs
Suggested Bet: Backing Sunset Beauty ($7) / Poetic Whisper ($10). Quinella 2,7,8.
