Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R3 (13) Palmanova
Turf Talk
- Rail out 5m.
- The track played well on the weekend.
- Soft 6 to start the morning. Rain predicted through the day. Could get to a heavy quickly.
Stats that matter
- The Sears stable has trained 8 winners from its last 50 runners with a positive ROI of +11%.
- Boris Thornton has ridden 8 winners from his last 50 rides with a strong ROI of +27%.
Race 1
Do the thrill seekers go with (3) Saturdays Girl? She’s the most consistent horse in the race but remains a maiden after 19 starts. She has produced the best last 200m splits in three of her past four runs but just doesn’t quite get it done. Well placed again.
(4) Arctic Bright wasn’t bad in stronger Maidens down south. The trial up here was good and the synthetic run can be forgiven. This looks a suitable target.
(6) Lontara was plain in a recent trial but showed enough on debut. She can improve sharply off that effort and might be a little better than the odds suggest.
Selections:
(3) Saturdays Girl
(6) Lontara
(4) Arctic Bright
(10) Tassorati
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(10) Girmay the odds on fave has come out.
(4) Switz was solid first-up for the new stable at Warwick. Hit the front, got headed and kept fighting. Lost in a photo but maps well again and should look the winner a long way out.
(3) Rosa Kiss looks capable of winning a race this prep. She was a little hit and miss last campaign but the better runs had merit. No official trial, so watch the market.
Selections:
(4) Switz
(3) Rosa Kiss
(6) Comeon Kingwilliam
(7) Hard Knox
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(13) Palmanova looks a handy type for the Waterhouse and Bott stable. She was held up at the wrong time for a stride or two last start and the effort to run second was excellent. That form should stack up strongly here and she maps to get every chance sitting close to the speed.
(4) It’s Allabout Me was plain on debut but was tipped straight out afterwards. Returns as a gelding and can improve sharply. The May trial was strong.
(11) Double Cool comes out of a Group 2 and recorded the third-best last 200m of the race. Draws well, gets a good rider and looks nicely placed by the Munce camp.
Selections:
(13) Palmanova
(11) Double Cool
(4) It’s Allabout Me
(14) Run Like A Girl
Suggested Bet: Win (13) Palmanova
Race 4
There are some serious trust issues with the stayers in Brisbane.
(3) The Irish won fresh and was midfield second-up. Handles all conditions, strips fitter and looks ready to show his best third-up at a suitable trip.
(7) Chillaxing is rock hard fit and was a dominant winner at Ipswich last start. He can mix his form but only needs to repeat the latest effort to be right in the finish.
(9) Highgrove Rose is a talented three-year-old filly but hard to catch. Gets in with 52kg and Thompson rides, although it is difficult to line up the polytrack form.
(1) Rattle And Hum would likely start favourite on his best form. Well beaten fresh but has trialled nicely since and gets a handy 2kg claim.
Selections:
(7) Chillaxing
(3) The Irish
(9) Highgrove Rose
(4) Captain Maverick
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(2) She Ours has been favourite multiple times in open three-year-old races in town. Her best form is strong but she has mixed her performances lately.
(4) Cantankerous has always shown ability but has only had four starts as a four-year-old. Trials have been good and he could be in for his best preparation yet.
(13) Better Not Slip showed talent in her first prep. Broke through impressively before a solid effort in a good three-year-old race prior to a spell. Trialled well and just needs luck from the gate.
Selections:
(13) Better Not Slip
(4) Cantankerous
(14) Cherrabah
(2) She Ours
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
The market may prove the best guide with (2) Set To Shine, who resumes after nearly a year off. She was racing in good-quality races when last seen and has had several trials to prepare for this.
(3) Alpha Bravo has been leading and winning. He chases a hat-trick here and draws ideally. The apprentice claim also helps.
(8) Click Click Boom has been racing well lately. Winner at Ipswich two starts ago before another solid effort there last time. The wide gate is the obvious concern.
(9) Lady Lucifer has shown ability in the past but doesn’t always run to market expectations. Hard to get a strong read on.
Selections:
(2) Set To Shine
(3) Alpha Bravo
(9) Lady Lucifer
(8) Click Click Boom
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (2) Set To Shine
Race 7
(5) Sweet Proposal was just fair fresh but can improve sharply second-up. She handles all conditions, is a strong mare and might settle closer in the run here.
(2) Sosino has struggled a little in Sydney but should appreciate the class drop heading north. Better for the first-up run and gets a handy 2kg claim.
(4) Smart As Smart has been very good this prep. He was simply too far back last start and can be forgiven.
(3) Falcon Of Malta went head-to-head with the favourites last start and was solid. That was the first run for the new stable and he should be on speed for a long way.
(8) El Pensador promised plenty early in his career before losing his way last prep. His two runs back this time in have been encouraging and he can hit the line late.
(7) Zaher is worth including in exotics.
Selections:
(5) Sweet Proposal
(3) Falcon Of Malta
(11) Cast Party
(4) Smart As Smart
(9) Pocketmoney
(2) Sosino
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
It’s the same story as the rest of the day, with several hard horses to line up.
(7) Automne Tree looked a good thing last week on the Gold Coast before being scratched. This race looks tougher, but the horse has ability, the trial was strong and the gate suits.
(1) State Opera brings the class for the Gollan stable. Last prep she won a Maiden fresh and was in a Group 3 two starts later. She beat Icarian Dream first-up this prep and looks well placed if she can overcome the barrier.
(13) Power Reece had some nice runs last prep. Was beaten out of sight fresh but the run was too bad to be true. Fitter now and Thompson takes the ride.
(11) Riez Souvent won fresh in a weaker race but may have upside to come for the Waller stable.
Selections:
(7) Automne Tree
(1) State Opera
(13) Power Reece
(11) Riez Souvent
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) Automne Tree, smaller (1) State Opera
