Dean Watling’s Canterbury Tips: Preview, tips and best bets for midweek racing

Key stats:

Hot

• Bjorn Baker is striking at 27.7% from his last 83 runners, returning an impressive POT of +29.8%.
• Chad Schofield is riding well, striking at 21.7% and returning an impressive POT of +21.5% from his past 46 rides.

Not

• Annabel and Rob Archibald have slumped to a concerning 14% strike rate from their past 93 runners, returning a POT of -19%.
• Andrew Adkins is struggling at the moment, striking at 3.4% with a POT of -75.7%.

Race 1

An 3YO BenchMark 64 to kick off proceedings here at Canterbury.

(3) The Little General was gritty fresh with an all-the-way win. This doesn’t look much tougher on paper and, with the smart draw and 2kg claim, he goes on top again.

(4) Lull and (5) Raskol both look well suited in this grade, with Lull the pick due to the smart, inside draw around this tight Canterbury track.

Selections
(3) The Little General
(4) Lull
(5) Raskol

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 2

A lacklustre Maiden Handicap overall.

(1) Persian Wonder should really be winning this and $2.50 seems like a fair price with Zac Lloyd booked. The slightly sticky gate combined with his get-back pattern is the concern, but he brings the class, form and trials to this event.

(2) Argansort is the only danger. He’ll lead them up with Rachel King in the saddle and should be rock-hard fit off the back of three trials leading in.

(3) Yoshida is the money watch after visually impressive trials, although he comes from a non-notable metropolitan camp, which makes him intriguing.

Selections
(1) Persian Wonder
(2) Argansort
(3) Yoshida

Suggested Bet: (1) Persian Wonder – Win

Race 3

Keen to be with the David Payne and Zac Lloyd combination here in (2) Krasina. It is no surprise to see solid early money come off the back of a smart fresh run and a last-start effort that should have seen this filly win. It is a smart booking of Lloyd and an even more important barrier. With even luck, she’s the best of the day.

(5) Queen’s Gamble is the danger following impressive trials, albeit she was slow away in the second. The knock is race fitness and her gate compared to the well-backed favourite.

(1) Farfetched will land on speed third-up but does need to improve, with a drying track the big help.

(3) Golden Goddess is next best.

Selections
(2) Krasina
(5) Queen’s Gamble
(1) Farfetched
(3) Golden Goddess

Suggested Bet: (2) Krasina – Win

Race 4

(6) Velaris draws poorly but has the tactical speed to roll forward. He faced the breeze when three-wide last start in Saturday grade and should find this much easier.

(5) Covert Thinking and (4) Fay’s Angels round out the numbers, with both needing to improve off their last-start ratings.

Selections
(6) Velaris
(5) Covert Thinking
(4) Fay’s Angels
(2) Allegro Miss

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 5

A big field here with plenty of speed expected up front over the 1200m. This contest is as hard as it gets.

(8) You’re The Choice brings a fresh form page to a race where the exposed form is mixed. She has produced solid trials and maps to land in the three-wide line.

(2) Infusion is the map horse and has been sprinkled with money in early markets, although she did get to the preferred ground last time out on the Kensington track.

(10) Blenheim Girl is the big market watch. She was a last-start winner before being sent to the paddock, with the worry being those recent trials.

(1) Crook is next best.

Selections
(8) You’re The Choice
(2) Infusion
(10) Blenheim Girl
(1) Crook

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 6

There looks to be plenty of tempo up front here in Race 6 and we should have the track pattern worked out by now also.

Keen to see how the Waterhouse and Bott-trained (2) Watson can measure up here against the older horses. He has trialled in very strong company and looks to be up to the mark fitness-wise.

(1) Verbil looks big odds. There has been smart use of the 3kg claim and he maps to get a cosy run from barrier one.

(8) Written Scandal dropped back in grade last time out and destroyed her rivals. She peaks fitness-wise and enjoys the sting out of the track.

(9) Unstopabull has been well backed in early markets following a luckless last-start effort and maps a lot better now.

Selections
(2) Watson
(1) Verbil
(8) Written Scandal
(9) Unstopabull

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 7

The theme of the day doesn’t end here in the last, with another extremely open event.

(2) Kenmare Bay returned in outstanding order fresh, giving away race fitness on the heavy deck before smashing his rivals. He again looks well placed here and goes on top.

(10) Spiv was a dominant last-start winner over 1400m. The rise to 1580m is no concern and, with the 3kg claim, he gets in well at the weights.

I expect a smart second-up run from (8) Prince Charge, who was plain fresh. The booking of Tommy Berry and the smart barrier both read well.

(1) Pier Pressure and (3) Bat Out Of Hell are next best.

Selections
(2) Kenmare Bay
(10) Spiv
(8) Prince Charge
(1) Pier Pressure
(3) Bat Out Of Hell

Suggested Bet: No bet