Turf Talk:
- Caulfield Heath track is clearly the best performing of the MRC circuits.
- Rail out 5m, having been 4m at the most recent where the track raced fairly.
- Key for backmakers is they need to get on their bike before the home bend to get into races.
Race 1
Speed looks (8) Pride Of Mandy (blinkers first time), (6) Chicky Wa Wa, (3) Triumvirate from (2) Obon. Genuine enough tempo for a 1500m maiden.
Liked the debut of (7) Next Tuesday who comes through a stronger formline that much of her opposition. She was strong through the line at 1400m and will strip significantly fitter for that. Settles midfield, one of the fence, should be strong late.
Triumvirate has had his chances in equally weak maidens but is fit and puts himself up on speed.
(4) Truth Seeker’s two runs have had merit, just needs a good ride from the sticky gate.
(5) Velvet City kept wanting to lay in behind Triumvirate at Geelong when making ground. Extra trip may suit but think needs a jockey that can use the whip in the right hand.
(7) Next Tuesday
(3) Triumvirate
(4) Truth Seeker
(5) Velvet City
Suggested bet: Can have something small Next Tuesday
Race 2
Small field, but good depth to this.
Tactical affair. The two favourites, (4) Baltic Blizzard and (6) Loft Vega could be leader’s back and three back the fence respectively. That could make it tricky in the small field. Both have good talent having won their maidens in dominant fashion last start. In fact, Loft Vega should have won on debut! I probably lean slightly to Loft Vega (a) at the price and (b) there’s a world where Lachie Neindorf can dictate to Declan Bates on Baltic Blizzard, being drawn to her outside.
That said, I give a hope to the roughie in (5) Don’t Doubt Dare. She’s been pretty green in her work to date but maiden win two back was strong. She lost a lot of ground going via the cape coming down the hill at Kilmore last time out and probably goes close to winning with a better run in transit. Dropping back to 1500m not ideal but small field means she should be within striking distance.
The toppy (1) Till Queen was heavily backed at Bendigo last start when having the perfect run in transit to salute narrowly.
(5) Don’t Doubt Dare
(6) Loft Vega
(4) Baltic Blizzard
(1) Till Queen
Suggested bet: Something very small Don’t Doubt Dare at a big price.
Race 3
(6) Farmelia trialled up very well prior to her debut and then produced a devastating turn of foot when winning at this track over 1000m. Beat the older horses there. Step to 1200m looks even more suitable. Think she’s a talent.
(4) Ruptured has jumped-out nicely for this. Comfortably accounted for his stablemate Vegas Missile, who was narrowly beaten at Pakenham on Monday. Drawn for a lovely run up near the speed.
(3) Vega Vixen was closer the inside in a race dominated off the fence at Flemington last start. Liked the debut win here over 1000m and think getting back to a drier surface suits.
(1) Vivid Storm was good winning in Adelaide first up having only had one jump-out leading in. Either leads or gets a soft trail.
(6) Farmelia
(4) Ruptured
(3) Vega Vixen
(1) Vivid Storm
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 4
Doesn’t look huge speed which may allow (7) Durban Honour a chance to control and give a good sight. Was ridden quietly first up this track and trip but suspect with that run under his belt they will be more aggressive here. He was forced to take off early when the pace slackened last start which didn’t suit those forced wide – the run was better than it looked.
(4) Natural Ruler has been excellent in two runs this campaign. They got him out to 3000m + last start, but he’s been more dynamic at middle distance trips this campaign. No luck at Geelong and then beat Rockette, who went to Flemington and won (albeit in a weakish 3yo staying contest). Sticky map, but with a good ride he looks hard to beat.
(8) Oak Beach continues to race well without winning. Drops in grade and don’t think the step back In trip poses any concerns. Maps well.
(1) Beach Pad is racing well and should get a very soft trail on the back of the speed.
(4) Natural Ruler
(7) Durban Honour
(8) Oak Beach
(1) Beach Pad
Suggested bet: Quinella 4,7,8.
Race 5
Two key runners are currently emergencies.
(18) Tan Tat Delight has returned in excellent order and looks ideally placed third-up stepping to 1500m. She finished strongly behind Brilliant Horizon in a race that favoured those on speed, closing late on Amping Lass, who has since franked the form with a strong performance last Saturday. The rise in distance suits and she should enjoy a perfect run from the draw. She looks the horse to beat.
(17) Male Model remains something of an enigma, but Jake Noonan appears to be building a good understanding of the gelding after two rides aboard him. He produced a strong late finish behind Ultra Blue last start on a day when leaders were advantaged. There looks very good speed which should allow him to work into the race.
Fresh seems to be best with (11) On Broadway. Jump-out was just fair, but she’s not the flashiest trialler. Drawn for a nice run and her peak ratings are the best of this field – over the odds.
(3) Dantooine was scratched from Sandown Saturday to race here from a good draw. Holly Durnan has hit a bit of form so the claim could come in handy. This bloke is racing consistently well and should again figure in the finish.
(18) Tan Tat Delight
(17) Male Model
(11) On Broadway
(3) Dantooine
Suggested bet: Waiting for scratchings.
Race 6
There’s a big boom on (8) Tennessee Bound after she went undefeated in her first campaign. She has a high cruising speed and a turn of foot – key ingredients in a quality horse. Finished 5th and 4th in trials leading in but she went to the line under double wraps, like a coiled spring ready to explode. She’s drawn to sit on speed without doing any work and has a handy claim for Jabez Johnstone. The query is this is her first time at 1000m and she has had a lengthy layoff. I couldn’t take the $1.75, think she’s about a $1.90-$2 chance.
(7) Buvelot is a good 1000m horse and he should relish a strong tempo up front.
(5) Cardone is coming into this off a long spell but he has the ratings in his locker to win a race like this. Jump-outs have been good and like Willo riding.
(9) Bine will be strong late – terrific run first up.
(8) Tennessee Bound
(5) Cardone
(7) Buvelot
(9) Bine
Suggested bet: Pass
Race 7
Tough race!
(3) Cavalry Girl cost herself victory when blowing the kick before charging late to just miss behind (4) Saluted this track and trip last start. They were in the stalls a long time last start and missing the kick isn’t her usual modus operandi. Drawn out but they only have one bend to navigate and she has the speed to get across. Think she can turn the tables on Saluted and is clearly one of the hardest to beat.
(7) Actuality gets blinkers and a handy claim for Emily Pozman dropping in grade. She has been having a good look around late in her races so those shades could really help her.
(12) Faraway Dream looked like Black Caviar when she belted her rivals on debut. She then beat a handy field when doing a lot wrong at Cranbourne at her second start. Happy to be forgiving of her last run at Geelong when spelled immediately after. Concern is trials have been ‘OK’ and it has been six weeks between her last trial and this first up run…
(3) Cavalry Girl
(7) Actuality
(4) Saluted
(12) Faraway Dream
Suggested bet: Backing both Cavalry Girl and Actuality to win the same amount.
Race 8
Bit to play out with (15) Silver Magnate currently favourite but needing another scratching to get a run.
(12) Sun Setting is going better than the form guide would suggested. Has had no luck in any of her three runs this campaign. Drawn out, but gets back anyway, so not concerned. If she has even luck in the run think she can win.
Silver Magnate has good talent, if he can sneak into the field. Jump-outs have been good enough for this. Probably has to come from near-enough last in the run which might be an ask first up.
(8) Jugiong limped 65.5kg to win first up at Corowa when chasing done a half-handy one in Risky Whisky. Wider draw good for him as he thrives on travelling in his own space. Cory Parish knows him well having twice won on him.
(14) Redders was slow out last start but that’s not the norm for him – he should be able to settle handy enough from a good gate.
(6) Barbaric Lad goes well this track, just needs a good ride form Willo off a low draw as he gets back.
(3) Prince Tycoon had a significant bias in his favour when winning at Bendigo first up, but he still got the job done. Five-weeks between runs some concern and a query at 1200m, but will give a sight on speed.
(12) Sun Setting
(8) Jugiong
(15) Silver Magnate
(14) Redders
Suggested bet: Will just wait for scr, but inclined to have something on Jugiong/Sun Setting.
