Again we meet at the 1600m starting point. I want to reiterate just how kind this starting point is and the insignificance of wide barriers, as long as you have tactical speed. ~500m to the first turn should see all horses sort their order out.
The rail is out +7m (1000m–Winning Post), +5m the remainder. This shouldn’t really affect the way the race is run and won. The only real factor would be if the wind was to come up, but it isn’t forecast.
Winners from the Draw
Campione D’Italia (4)
The ideal barrier for the $2.90 favourite. He showed more tactical speed last start in the G1 Sires. Up to 1600m now and from a good gate he can use barrier 4 to land in the 1-1. From there, it looks his race to lose.
Fireball (2)
He’s had plenty of runs this prep but his best was last start in the Sires when he enjoyed an above-average tempo. There doesn’t look to be huge amounts of speed here, so the smart inside draw is key to Fireball’s chances. He’ll land leaders back and should get his chance.
Southport (5) & Zambales (3)
Southport brings a different form line to this event, coming through the Baillieu. He’s a colt with a turn of speed and draws ideally in gate 5. He can tag the back of the favourite in Campione D’Italia and from there should get every chance to run over the top of them.
Zambales looks to get an economical run on the fence, another who gets his chance.
Losers from the Draw
Miss Chanel (12)
It’s not the end of the world for Miss Chanel, but I dare say they may have figured out last start she’s best ridden off speed and asked to close off. From gate 12 she doesn’t have a whole lot of options other than rolling forward and landing on speed. Ideally, they would have landed midfield with cover.
Overall
Overall, a lot of the favoured runners have drawn well, bar Miss Chanel. It doesn’t look to be a fast-run race, which should suit those settling forward of midfield. It looks Campione D’Italia’s race to lose.
