Coolmore Classic Preview: Racelab’s Matt Collum breaks down the Group 1 showdown at Rosehill

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Coolmore Classic using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race. 

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In The Lab | Coolmore Classic | Group 1 F&M 1500m

The track – unique features of Rosehill 1500m course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail True, Soft 5. Good 4 likely on the day
• On-pacers are advantage at Rosehill with a win strike rate of 11.9%
• Lane 1 is best from the 400m – WP with a S/R of 14.1% and 23.4% ROI

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a good tempo with speed coming out wide from Savvy Hallie. Either Cinsault or Savvy Hallie will take up the running.

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Ciaron Maher & Jett Stanley are winning at 25% S/R with a ROI of 129.5%
• Gary Portelli & Craig Williams have a 15% S/R and POT of 43.6%
• Michael Freedman & Jason Collett are going well with a 25% S/R and POT of 28%

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Coolmore Classic. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Coolmore Classic:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.

The verdict and betting strategy:

Field of fourteen runners for the G1 Coolmore Classic. Interesting to note that no previous winner has carried more than 57kg. Tempo appears solid with Savvy Hallie spearing across from the wide gate taking up the running with Nash aboard. I thought her effort last start was huge against the boom filly Tempted. She worked hard and closed off with the second fastest 400 & 200 in the race – has to be highly respected. Lazzura is a danger however she seems short enough and may not find the best going. Manaal is honest and gets the winkers for the first time, maps to get every chance but may be found wanting late. Artic Glamour closed off strongly against the tempo last start and is a likely improver up in distance. Melody Again is on the quick back up after savaging the line at Newcastle and can surprise at big odds.

Suggested Bet:

Savvy Hallie (WIN)

Artic Glamour (WIN)

Melody Again (WIN)

Legend: