Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 6 (2) Golden Spritz
- Next Best: Race 2 (12) Mirador
- Value Bet: Race 9 (13) Stellar Mofeed
Track
- It is forecast for clearing weather but after rain in the lead up days it is likely the track will kick off at least as a Heavy 8.
- This is the first meeting here since late April so we see the rail placed into the True position.
- It is a tight turning track so generally an advantage to runners on speed or at least forwards of midfield in the run.
Stats That Matter
- Jordy Childs’ strong recent form is flying under the radar. He has ridden 20 winners from his last 100 rides and returned a POT of +18% for punters.
- Julius Sandhu’s stable has been in consistent form for an extended period. He has produced 19 winners from his last 100 starters for a POT return of +32.7% and also has a positive POT return at this track of +11.5%.
Race 2
(12) Mirador
(9) Eternal Joy
(15) Portinari
(13) Ruby Guild
(12) Mirador resumes for her second preparation here. She contested stronger two-year-old races in her debut campaign so will find this easier and looks to have returned in excellent order based on recent trial performances.
(9) Eternal Joy is another resuming runner. She showed speed on debut and if she can hold a similar position from barrier one, she should receive every chance.
(15) Portinari finished well back in a Group 2 race on debut, but this is a much easier assignment and the extra time in the paddock may have allowed for natural improvement.
Of the debutants, (13) Ruby Guild appeals most based on her recent trial work and the favourable race shape she could enjoy.
Suggested Bet: (12) Mirador (Win)
Race 6
(2) Golden Spritz
(5) Sotomayor
(4) Illuminance
(3) Icaro
(2) Golden Spritz appears to get the ideal set up to produce a peak performance third-up. He is now at peak fitness and should enjoy the run of the race from barrier three, with several of the main speed influences drawn wider.
(5) Sotomayor maps to enjoy a much better run than he did at Geelong last start. An inside draw is a positive and he has already proven capable on heavy ground.
(4) Illuminance resumes. She will need luck from barrier nine over 1400m first-up but has a strong fresh record and is capable of making her presence felt.
(3) Icaro also resumes after heading to the paddock off a win. He should return with confidence and wet conditions are unlikely to be an issue.
Suggested Bet: (2) Golden Spritz (Win)
Race 9
(13) Stellar Mofeed
(2) Killiana
(7) Meisho
(8) Artbeat
(13) Stellar Mofeed has been ultra-consistent this preparation with a string of placings, including runner-up finishes at her past two starts. She looked the winner at Geelong before being grabbed late and now maps for a softer run.
(2) Killiana drops in grade and is now at peak fitness. She is certainly capable of winning at her best but faces the challenge of a wide draw in testing conditions.
(7) Meisho had little luck last start but her previous Mornington win was strong. She will need things to fall her way from a wide gate but should be finishing off strongly.
(8) Artbeat won on debut before an average performance last time. She may have had excuses there and now drops in weight while potentially securing a more suitable run.
Suggested Bet: (13) Stellar Mofeed (Each Way)
