Track Talk
- Expecting a Heavy 9 to Heavy 10 surface, with the track currently rated a Heavy 9 and further rain forecast.
- The rail is out +6m for the entire circuit, creating a tricky setup around Canterbury.
- Horses that are able to find the rail in transit should hold a slight advantage, while runners settling forward of midfield are also expected to be favoured in the testing conditions.
Stats That Matter
HOT
- Bjorn Baker continues to produce outstanding results, striking at 26.6% from his past 79 metropolitan runners while returning an impressive +26.3% POT.
- Siena Grima is riding in excellent form, boasting a 32.6% strike rate and an outstanding +60.2% POT from his past 76 metropolitan rides.
COLD
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have cooled off recently, operating at a 14% strike rate from their past 93 runners with a -19% POT.
- Braith Nock has also found winners hard to come by of late, striking at 14% with a -18.3% POT.
Intriguing race to kick off proceedings here in Race 1. I expect a Heavy 9 to Heavy 10 track with rain forecast throughout the week, so conditions are going to be a major factor. There looks to be genuine speed on paper and, at the better odds, I’ll lean the way of Farfected. He stays at the 1100m, should land on speed from barrier three and looks capable of controlling the race from the front.
Crossways was well backed on debut after producing three consecutive impressive trial performances. He did have to work early in the run before just proving a touch plain late, but there’s no doubt the ability is there. At the current $2.45 he looks under the odds, although the booking of Zac Lloyd is a significant positive. Loud And Clear profiles as the best roughie after an impressive recent trial win against smart opposition, while Ballet Encore is next best in what shapes as an interesting opener.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Sanctum looks the standout bet of the entire program. His debut performance was every bit as good as, if not better than, Omolong, and that form has already been franked after Omolong came out and won impressively in Saturday grade. Sanctum maps ideally from barrier five, should enjoy a soft run throughout and gets in nicely at the weights with the claim of the in-form Siena Grima. Everything points towards him proving very hard to beat.
Helldeeva looks to have been overlooked in the early market. She was dominant winning on debut before producing a slick tick-over trial since, which should have her perfectly primed second-up. Elio is another who can improve sharply from the inside draw, where he should find the rail and benefit from natural race experience. Solid Heart is the horse to monitor. His trials have been quietly impressive, although he does look to be the Chris Waller stable’s second seed in this event.
Suggested Bet: Sanctum WIN
This is a very good race with plenty of speed expected over the 1200m, so there should be genuine pressure throughout. The way the track is playing by this stage of the meeting could have a major bearing on the result.
Royal Air Force looks a ridiculous price in the early market. He was a dominant fresh winner before being given virtually no chance second-up when badly held up behind horses at a crucial stage. Once clear, his final 100 metres were excellent. The awkward barrier is the obvious challenge, but at $15 or better he profiles as one of the best value bets of the meeting. Lady Invictus shapes as the hardest horse to run down after leading a long way in that same lead-up race. She draws inside again and should enjoy another economical run on speed. Gatwick finally delivered on the promise he’d been showing last start, although the knock is the current quote around $2.70 combined with a completely different race shape where he’ll have plenty of company up front. Raskol is next best.
Suggested Bet: Royal Air Force EW
Smaller field here but there still looks to be enough speed engaged to ensure every runner gets their chance. The difficult aspect of this race is that several key hopes are yet to prove themselves in genuinely heavy conditions.
I’m happy to oppose Zale at the current $4 quote given his poor wet-track record. Remember Jack has trialled like a rocket leading into this first-up assignment and maps to settle in a lovely stalking position from barrier six. From there he looks capable of producing a fresh performance at attractive odds. Inoue has also trialled well but, like Zale, still has to answer the wet-track query. Madrina is next best. She has solid enough exposed wet-track form and also gets in well at the weights with the apprentice claim.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
There’s plenty to work through here. A field of 16 is likely to become a field of 10 on race day with wide barriers, scratchings and dual acceptors all adding another layer of complexity to an already tricky race.
I really like the setup for the Chris Waller-trained Lipstick. The 1600m looked to stretch the three-year-old filly just a touch last start. She drops back slightly in distance here, maps beautifully from the draw and gets the added bonus of a valuable 2kg claim. Sister Daae handles wet ground, has race fitness on her side and also maps for a favourable run. The Waterhouse and Bott-trained pair of Virgil’s Gift and Whack Attack both look likely to roll forward, with Virgil’s Gift appearing to map slightly better while also bringing a stronger fitness edge into the race. It’s a genuinely tricky contest.
Suggested Bet: Lipstick WIN
A massive field of 14 lines up here with the rail out +6m, making this one of the more difficult betting races on the card. The market reflects that too, with several chances around the $5.50 mark and very little separating the leading hopes.
Existential Bob goes on top. He boasts a perfect two-from-two record on Heavy tracks and gets the services of Zac Lloyd, fresh back from the European summer, from a favourable barrier. Current favourite Think I Will is clearly the main danger after putting together back-to-back impressive wins. The 2kg claim is another positive, although he’ll require plenty of luck from barrier 15. Trapalanda has only won twice from 16 starts but continues to race consistently with eight placings. The rise from 1600m to 1900m second-up looks ideal, although he may improve again at his next run. Luskaire and Skycatcher are next best. Both are racing well enough to win and neither would surprise.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Another capacity field brings the meeting to a close and it’s a fittingly difficult race to finish with. Good speed is expected throughout, making timing and finding the right runs in transit crucial.
Zouripper goes on top. He probably should have won last start and, while the wide barrier makes this a tougher assignment, there appears enough speed engaged for the field to spread and allow him to work into the race down the outside late. Steel Strike gives away important race fitness but his recent trials have been solid and barrier one should ensure he enjoys the run of the race. Miss Kim Kar is a difficult horse to assess. Her recent form has been plain, but the drop in grade, wet conditions and favourable barrier all suggest she can improve sharply. If she gains a start, Astronomix also has to be included in the chances with Zac Lloyd taking the ride.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
