Best Bet: Race 7 No. 8 Affaire Vue
Next Best: Race 5 No. 3 Justaclaim
Best Value: Race 3 No. 13 Sassy Little Miss
Turf talk:
The track is currently rated a Heavy 8 but with clearing conditions through the early parts of the week there is a chance for an upgrade into the Soft range. The rail position moves out from the previous meeting and will be +6m the entire circuit. Racing on the course proper, Morphettville is generally a fair track where runners can win from a variety of positions, so expect the track to play fairly once again.
Stats That Matter
Todd Pannell is riding in consistent form with 16 winners from his previous 100 rides and a healthy profit on turnover of +12.8%.
Last season’s premiership jockey Rochelle Milnes has recently returned from a break and will be hoping to find form quickly after a lean stretch of seven winners from her past 100 rides.
Grant Kluske brings a pair of runners to the meeting and his stable’s recent form has been outstanding, producing 13 winners from its previous 100 runners for a profit on turnover of +48.7%.
Race 1
(1) Chix Diggus recently made his debut in a stronger race at Murray Bridge where he finished midfield but should have improvement to give for that experience and will likely be better suited down in grade and slightly down in distance. (10) She’s Iconic made her debut in a much stronger race earlier this year, finishing a long way from the winner but with excuses in the run. Given more time and dropping in grade today, she is a likely improver. A few make their debut here and the best of those from the trials looks likely to be (7) Fartoo Frisky, who looks capable of a strong debut and maps for a soft run. (3) Morlock ran better than midfield on debut in a handy midweek two-year-old race and looks likely to be better suited on a more even track.
Selections
(1) Chix Diggus
(10) She’s Iconic
(7) Fartoo Frisky
(3) Morlock
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(12) Prancing Fool ran second behind a runaway winner at Balaklava last start. She faces similar conditions here today which should suit her again and remains light at the weights, so looks likely to be hard to hold out. (14) Contrary finished out the back of the field last start but that was in a much stronger race. She will be better suited back in grade and should be strong to the line with a light weight. (10) Mystrix has been around the mark in recent runs with three placings from four runs this preparation. He looks close to a breakthrough win but needs to overcome a wide barrier. (6) Sweet Kick has had plenty of chances to win her maiden but appears close to her best form after a pair of placings at her past two starts and is suited staying at 1600m.
Selections
(12) Prancing Fool
(14) Contrary
(10) Mystrix
(6) Sweet Kick
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(13) Sassy Little Miss was well supported on debut but finished a long way from the winner. She had excuses in that run and has been given more time since to improve. She sets up well from barrier one and gets a favourable run. (5) Scooped was solid when resuming in a handy Saturday maiden and drops in grade today while mapping for a much better run, so has good scope to improve second-up. (8) Amalfi Dreamer makes his debut after looking very good when winning a recent trial and appears capable of a big first-up performance despite a wide barrier. (14) Settle Petal resumes after running well first-up last preparation and her recent trial suggested she will be in good order fresh, although she also maps for a tough run from a wide draw and may need luck early.
Selections
(13) Sassy Little Miss
(5) Scooped
(8) Amalfi Dreamer
(14) Settle Petal
Suggested Bet: (13) Sassy Little Miss (Value)
Race 4
It clicked for (5) Moussaka last start when he won his maiden impressively at Balaklava. He was strong through the line, giving nothing else a chance, so the rise in distance looks suitable and he should be high on confidence. (14) Swan Dance remains a maiden but looks the key speed influence and could give them something to catch from the front carrying a light weight. (2) Hammer Springs has mixed his form in recent runs but could be better suited dropping in grade and maps for a soft run from barrier one. (4) Master Of Ceremony has only won once but has been racing consistently with placings at his past three starts.
Selections
(5) Moussaka
(14) Swan Dance
(2) Hammer Springs
(4) Master Of Ceremony
Suggested Bet: (5) Moussaka (Win)
Race 5
(3) Justaclaim ran well in a stronger race on Saturday and, if he backs up, is sharply down in grade and looks the runner with the most upside in the field. Jumping from barrier one should give him a soft run and he will prove hard to beat. (4) Fast Tempo hit the line well first-up despite the tough conditions. Fitter now and getting onto a better track should give him every chance to improve. (8) Sahha Sweetie raced prominently when winning in maiden grade last start. She rises in grade but comes here with confidence and another favourable race map. (1) Heroic Rebel makes his debut for a new stable after racing in Queensland and will likely be better over further but may surprise in this grade.
Selections
(3) Justaclaim
(4) Fast Tempo
(8) Sahha Sweetie
(1) Heroic Rebel
Suggested Bet: (3) Justaclaim (Win)
Race 6
(4) Nostryia looks a strong chance to find his best form now he reaches peak fitness third-up, where he has won previously. He handles wet conditions and has a good record at the distance, so appears to get the right set-up. (6) Redwinelover also drops in grade from her previous start and maps well from barrier two. She should race prominently and could prove the one to catch. (11) Zoutrail wasn’t far from the winner when resuming at Murray Bridge and should enjoy a better run from barrier four today, settling closer and improving. (3) The Magistrate resumes after racing in stronger grade last preparation and has a good first-up record, although he will need luck from a wide barrier.
Selections
(4) Nostryia
(6) Redwinelover
(11) Zoutrail
(3) The Magistrate
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(8) Affaire Vue was good in a stronger race here last start and should appreciate the drop back in grade. Improving track conditions will also help her chances. The in-form Todd Pannell takes the ride, so she is a chance to settle closer in the run, which should suit. (1) Tottori has run well at his past two starts, although he was disqualified on protest two runs ago, and has hit the line strongly in both. He should appreciate the rise in distance if he can overcome the wide barrier. (3) I Am Ralph was well supported last start but struggled in tough conditions carrying a big weight. He can bounce back here with a slightly lighter weight and Connor Murtagh returning aboard, having a strong record on the horse. (5) Divine Fire has been racing consistently in stronger company and can perform well again dropping in grade, although she will need to use early speed from the wide barrier.
Selections
(8) Affaire Vue
(1) Tottori
(3) I Am Ralph
(5) Divine Fire
Suggested Bet: (8) Affaire Vue (Win)
Race 8
(5) The Journo drops in grade and should be better suited on improving track conditions after the heavy ground may not have suited him last start. He jumps from barrier two, which should see him land in a handy position in a race where several key rivals have awkward maps. (14) Magic Island resumes for a new stable after encouraging recent trials. His Queensland form should measure up in this grade, while he is also a first-up winner and a winner at the distance, although the track condition remains the main query. (7) One Kind drops in grade after finishing well back at Port Augusta and should appreciate getting back to more suitable conditions. (15) Pretentious Lass was a good winner two starts ago before failing to fire in a stronger race last time. She is much better suited back in grade and, with a light weight, should be finishing strongly if she gets the right run from a wide gate.
Selections
(5) The Journo
(14) Magic Island
(7) One Kind
(15) Pretentious Lass
Suggested Bet: No bet
