Dean Watling’s Crystal Ball: Early play for the Doomben 10,000

We are just over a week away from the opening Group 1 feature of the Brisbane Winter Carnival, the Doomben 10,000. It shaped as a wide-open contest up until the past week or so.

Lady Of Camelot and Private Harry were both below their best in the Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm on Saturday, while Jokers Grin is still nursing a foot issue and looks very unlikely to line up. Jimmysstar has been a late inclusion, with Ethan Brown granted leave from Hong Kong to return and take the ride.

Zac Purton has been locked in for Grafterburners, who comes off a last-start third in the Arrowfield Sprint, beaten 1.7L by Tempted. He has since had a tick-over trial (8/5/26) which, in my opinion, was below par.

Where does that leave us? At $6, Napoleonic looks a tremendous bet in the race.

$6.00 (Bet365) – NAPOLEONIC (Wootton Bassett x Jolie Brise)

The 3yo colt was beaten 1.27L first up behind Tempted in the Eskimo Prince before running second in the G2 Hobartville Stakes behind Ninja, defeating subsequent G1 Rosehill Guineas winner Autumn Boy. Third up, he went from 1400m back to 1300m in the G1 Canterbury Stakes, running third beaten only 1.63L behind subsequent G1 TJ Smith Stakes winner Joliestar and G1 All Aged Stakes winner Beiwacht.

He’s been off the scene for nine weeks now and has returned with two ultra-impressive trial wins with James McDonald and Zac Lloyd aboard. He brings clearly the best recent form lines into this race, 1200m is his optimum trip and he finds James McDonald in the saddle.

Jimmysstar ($3.50) deserves to be favourite, but off his preparation to date he does look somewhat of a risk dropping back to 1200m, racing as though he now wants 1600m.

At $6, Napoleonic looks a great futures play. I could easily see him starting $4.00–$4.50 on race day.