A couple of nice-priced winners last week have us heading into spring with a bit of momentum. Hopefully we can keep it rolling rather than being immediately reminded how humbling this caper can be.
Attention turns to Randwick for Winx Stakes Day, where we’re dealing with a Soft 7 and the rail in the True position.
From a historical data perspective, barriers 1-3 have enjoyed a significant edge in these conditions, beating the market by between 5% and 17% depending on where horses settle in the run. It’s a strong enough trend to warrant plenty of consideration when assessing the card.
Sheza Alibi is drawn 1, Autumn Glow 3!
The strongest results have come from horses drawn in those inside gates that are predicted to settle either forward or back, with that profile producing a 13-17% edge.
The runners fitting that profile on Saturday are Isawyou (R1), Andrea (R2), Le Troisir (R3), Elliptical (R5), Gatwick (R6) and Autumn Glow (R9).
Turning to the jockey data, the GOAT (James McDonald) has unsurprisingly ridden more winners than anyone else, but from a betting perspective he has essentially chopped out, based on the best of starting price and the NSW tote.
Nash Rawiller is the standout from a punting perspective, going at a 9.8% PoT here at Randwick.
Over to Sandown Hillside, where we’re dealing with a Heavy 9 and a bayside breeze, so conditions are likely to play a major role in how the meeting unfolds.
The historical lane data below throws up a few angles, but given the state of the track and the wind, we’d expect the prevailing conditions to have a much greater influence on the pattern as the day progresses.
Barrier and run-style data looks particularly influential in Adelaide. There’s a strong edge for horses drawn wide that are expected to settle midfield or back, a profile worth keeping in mind across the card.
But let’s head back to Sydney, where we can lean on the Top 4 Performers Table to try to identify some value in the feature races.
Randwick Race 4 – 1600m
Let’s try to build the bank with the rest of the market. King Of The Sea ($2.60) has plenty going for him here. McDonald aboard, Maher-trained, fastest last-start performance, strong trials and a drop in class. He was also very quick first-up last preparation.
Tick, tick, tick.
Randwick Race 7 – 1200m
Backing Agrarian Girl with confidence at $4.50. Punting Form AI marks her shorter, Tim Clark is flying and can always back Gai and Adrian with confidence. She also ranks No.1 for Early Speed and Race Time Price. Plenty lining up in her favour.
Randwick Race 9 – 1400m
Autumn Glow. Best horse. Best trainer. Best jockey. And we get the dream spot, with a 17% map edge landing behind Lindermann.
The $1.90 isn’t anything flash, but sometimes you don’t need to overthink it. She wins. Let’s go!
Sandown-Hillside Race 2 – 1400
Cruiserweight can bounce straight back and put these away. He brings the best peak performance in the race, maps beautifully and with Zahra taking the reins, he should get every chance to produce his best.
Hard to knock.
Sandown Hillside Race 3 – 2400m
Think Giant ran the clock into the ground last start, posting a slick -11.3. He ranks No.1 for Early Speed and Weight Class Price, and the move from $4.20 into $3 pre-post is certainly encouraging.
The firm in priceprice has taken some of the cream off, though, so betting with a level head rather than launching in.
Sandown Hillside Race 7 – 1000m
I’m backing Cavalry Girl to take the next step. Her last-start win was exceptional and Tom Dabernig’s stable is absolutely flying, with an A2E of 1.58 across its past 100 runners.
The map, conditions and jockey all look ticks. But, similar to Think Giant above, this is a deep race and the price keeps the bet size in check.
Morphettville Parks Race 3 – 1579m
Tootell’s record on the Parks track is outrageous, beating the market by 42%. I’m backing Maxildo with confidence. He’s already been well found, firming from $5.50 into $4.90, but there’s plenty to like. Fastest last start, stable flying and PF AI rates him strongly.
Happy to be with him.
Morphettville Parks Race 4 – 1400m
Amalfi Dreamer looks a class above this field. He ripped home -7.6 over the final 600m last start and gets a perfect score from PF AI.
Doomben Race 10 – 1600m
Cunnamulla Fella has attracted some early support, $5.50 into $5, and I’m happy to follow the money.
He produced the quickest last-start performance in the race and ranks No.1 for Race Time Price.
Good enough price to find out.
Belmont Park Race 4 – 1600m
Heaven Specified ($3.60) is another deserving favourite I’m happy to be with.
The Parnham runner gets a perfect PF Score and absolutely lights up the database, having run 6+ lengths faster than anything else in this field last start just two weeks ago. Hard to ignore numbers like that.
