There isn’t a better week on the calendar. Australia’s best horses racing in traditional feature races steeped in history, not to mention the ferocious gambling across all 37 races over the four famous days.
Victoria Derby
The Derby? Well, I’ve written a puff piece on the great race and made no secret of my infatuation with the pair at the top of the market.
Since June, Cormier and Stormy Marco have been my two colts for the Derby, largely because of the way they stride.
This year’s Spring Champion Stakes was far superior to the Victorian lead-in runs. The pair are the highest-rated runners by quite a way, and both look very likely to stay a mile and a half well. Cormier has an important positional advantage and is the more likely of the two, but Stormy Marco has James McDonald and was quicker through the final quarter-mile last start.
Bracket betting the pair works out at around 6/4, depending on where you shop. That’s a remarkably good gamble. I’d be surprised if one of the two didn’t win.
Coolmore Stud Stakes
The Coolmore Stud Stakes, synonymous with Derby Day, assembles the best three-year-old sprinters of each generation. The Next Episode has been widely considered the favourite since May, when he dismantled Natural Fling and others on the Gold Coast. He cost $2.8 million in the sales ring and will be a ‘breed shaper’ whether he wins this race or not.
There had been plenty of discussion surrounding his return at three after two less-than-satisfactory trials in Sydney, but that notion was quickly silenced with an explosive last quarter-mile in the Danehill Stakes.
He looks and feels like the Coolmore winner. Now, that’s neither articulate nor measured, but betting is intuition just as much as it is numbers. On this occasion, both line up. Better than 2/1 appeals. In fact, he’s currently just shy of 3/1. That is a great, great bet.
St Gotthard is next. He’s of a similar mould to past winners, third-up, ridden by James McDonald and prepared by Chris Waller. He’s the brother of Switzerland, who won this very race two years ago. He doesn’t have the same zip about him, though. He’s highly talented, but I don’t foresee two or three lengths’ worth of improvement. I see that in The Next Episode. I make St Gotthard 5/1.
For all that The Next Episode was decisive in the last furlong of the Danehill, Mbube ran the quickest section of that race between the 400 and 200 metres. Perhaps he wasn’t well enough conditioned for that race and can improve in the most important race of his life. He’s 30/1, and one I forecast improvement in this Saturday.
I’m tipping a favourites’ day on Derby Day, at least in the features.
What could go wrong?
Empire Rose Stakes
Lady Shenandoah has a mortgage on this race through a performance-rating lens. She won the Toorak Handicap as topweight last start, doing so with plenty of courage, bullocking her way through a compact field at the furlong.
This is a rather weak Empire Rose, and she fits the profile of a typical winner of the race. Surfin’ Bird and Concord Connie must come up to her level, while she must regress, which is a favourable position to be in. Even more so when she’s trained and ridden by Chris Waller and James McDonald, who so often get it right throughout this carnival.
Her current odds of $2.60 do not do her justice, and I’m pleasantly surprised she’s not closer to even money. She’ll be a fantastic result for me.
Salty Pearl comes through the Toorak as well, where she set the pace alongside Regal Award. The speed was fast and the race took its toll as it progressed, leaving her well positioned to race to a new peak this Saturday. She must improve, but she’s in capable hands and should enjoy the on-pace favours, which are crucial.
Wakeful Stakes
The Wakeful Stakes is typically an important lead-in to the Oaks, and many of these fillies are here for a tune-up ahead of Thursday’s race.
Drawing wide can be exponentially detrimental in this race, while being on pace is highly important. Those drawn wide may simply look to run the fastest last furlong rather than win the race. That creates opportunity, even more so when I believe the favourite is highly vulnerable.
Icelady, the current favourite, was severely favoured in the Guineas and, simultaneously, may be too quick-legged to stay ten furlongs. I make De Armas the favourite. She is far more likely to stay the distance and will race on pace. She was beaten for speed but stayed on well through the line in the Guineas. She’s value at her current odds.
There are a few other fillies of significant interest, most notably Nikitria, who I make far shorter than 50/1. She stayed on well in an on-pace-dominated mile race last start and has always given the impression she will stay. She has the ability to settle forward of midfield and is highly likely to improve. I am very excited to back her.
Girl With A Pearl can naturally settle midfield having drawn well, and can improve markedly. So can So Royal.
A fantastic betting race, and one I believe I have a hold on.
The Bets
- Victoria Derby: Cormier and Stormy Marco
- Coolmore Stud Stakes: The Next Episode and Mbube
- Empire Rose Stakes: Lady Shenandoah and Salty Pearl
- Wakeful Stakes: De Armas, Nikitria, Girl With A Pearl and So Royal
